Emerson: Trump ahead in all swing states

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1785263233420370192

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1785269288531546597

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They're all MOE

[CookieDamage]

Some actually realistic numbers for a tied/Biden +2 race. Michigan and Nevada being the closest makes sense while NC being much closer to lean Trump makes sense as well. Biden would be wise to seriously target MI, PA, and WI. Retaining these three as well as Nevada would win him the WH.

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1785273092194906576

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump won't win every swing state

[Skill and Chance]

IMO the most notable thing is Trump retained a meaningful margin in AZ, Lake gained on Gallego, and Katie Hobbs has net negative approval in a poll taken in the immediate aftermath of the abortion ban going into effect.  It might be time to think of AZ as Lean R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IMO the most notable thing is Trump retained a meaningful margin in AZ, Lake gained on Gallego, and Katie Hobbs has net negative approval in a poll taken in the immediate aftermath of the abortion ban going into effect.  It might be time to think of AZ as Lean R.

Lol it's ,4 pts MOE

[Sir Mohamed]

GA at least isn't far off the others, which is somewhat encouraging. That said, I feel like momentum has shifted back to Trump lately and/or Biden's SOTU bump has kind of faded.

[Skill and Chance]

GA at least isn't far off the others, which is somewhat encouraging. That said, I feel like momentum has shifted back to Trump lately and/or Biden's SOTU bump has kind of faded.

GA polls either look like Republican 2008 or like a statistical tie.  IMO the giant Trump margins in GA never made a ton of sense (at least relative to the others- there have been sets of polls that have Trump winning every swing state by 4-8 and that's a bit different) because where is he getting the additional votes from? 

GA rurals are already near-unanimous Trump and maxed out, GA suburbs have more left-leaning people moving in each year, and GA doesn't have a large retiree influx.  There's no reservoir of socially moderate to conservative rural white Dems (NC) or Hispanic Dems (AZ/NV) for Trump to flip.  I can buy marginal gains for Trump in the GA black community, particularly rural black communities, but there's no evidence of a massive sea change.   

[GAinDC]

GA at least isn't far off the others, which is somewhat encouraging. That said, I feel like momentum has shifted back to Trump lately and/or Biden's SOTU bump has kind of faded.

GA polls either look like Republican 2008 or like a statistical tie.  IMO the giant Trump margins in GA never made a ton of sense (at least relative to the others- there have been sets of polls that have Trump winning every swing state by 4-8 and that's a bit different) because where is he getting the additional votes from? 

GA rurals are already near-unanimous Trump and maxed out, GA suburbs have more left-leaning people moving in each year, and GA doesn't have a large retiree influx.  There's no reservoir of socially moderate to conservative rural white Dems (NC) or Hispanic Dems (AZ/NV) for Trump to flip.  I can buy marginal gains for Trump in the GA black community, particularly rural black communities, but there's no evidence of a massive sea change.   

I totally think Trump can win Georgia, but it will be very close. On his absolute best night, he can maybe win by his 2016 margin of around 5%, but that's all. The Dem ceiling in GA is still lower, so I think Biden can maybe win the state by 3% on his best night.

But more than likely, neither candidate wins by more than a point or two. Georgia is just too polarized, and Metro Atlanta is not snapping back to Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GA at least isn't far off the others, which is somewhat encouraging. That said, I feel like momentum has shifted back to Trump lately and/or Biden's SOTU bump has kind of faded.

Have you seen the Kaplan and MC polls they had Trump up 15 in MI and 10 in WI we can overcome MOE leads by Trump anyways we outvoted Rs in PA primary 950/750K

Biden doesn't have flaws Veep Harris has a lower Approval rating than Biden, Harris flaws is the cause of Biden polls

That's why I make it clear Newsom not Harris is my choice in 28

[2016]

GA at least isn't far off the others, which is somewhat encouraging. That said, I feel like momentum has shifted back to Trump lately and/or Biden's SOTU bump has kind of faded.

GA polls either look like Republican 2008 or like a statistical tie.  IMO the giant Trump margins in GA never made a ton of sense (at least relative to the others- there have been sets of polls that have Trump winning every swing state by 4-8 and that's a bit different) because where is he getting the additional votes from? 

GA rurals are already near-unanimous Trump and maxed out, GA suburbs have more left-leaning people moving in each year, and GA doesn't have a large retiree influx.  There's no reservoir of socially moderate to conservative rural white Dems (NC) or Hispanic Dems (AZ/NV) for Trump to flip.  I can buy marginal gains for Trump in the GA black community, particularly rural black communities, but there's no evidence of a massive sea change.   

I totally think Trump can win Georgia, but it will be very close. On his absolute best night, he can maybe win by his 2016 margin of around 5%, but that's all. The Dem ceiling in GA is still lower, so I think Biden can maybe win the state by 3% on his best night.

But more than likely, neither candidate wins by more than a point or two. Georgia is just too polarized, and Metro Atlanta is not snapping back to Trump.

The Biden Campaign said that North Carolina was their best Opportunity to pick up a State that Trump carried and right now that State is increasingly looking out of reach for them. Maybe naming former NC GOP State Party Chair Michael Whatley as Chair of the RNC and Lara Trump Co-Chair did have an impact in this State because over the last few weeks Trumps Support in the Tar Heel State has actually increased over Pres Biden.

I think Trump is at least for now slightly favored to win GA and NC.

[MillennialModerate]

IMO the most notable thing is Trump retained a meaningful margin in AZ, Lake gained on Gallego, and Katie Hobbs has net negative approval in a poll taken in the immediate aftermath of the abortion ban going into effect.  It might be time to think of AZ as Lean R.

There is something about Katie Hobbs that makes her a dud of sorts. I think it’s her lack of confidence. She doesn’t seem sure of herself at all. 

As for Arizona, I think with the abortion ban - in a neutral enviorment it’s a Dem state. But if the national enviorment is decisively Trump then the tide will make it a Lean R state

[wbrocks67]

Find it ironic that NV and GA were some of Bidens worst polling states and suddenly they are now his two best states in this iteration lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IMO the most notable thing is Trump retained a meaningful margin in AZ, Lake gained on Gallego, and Katie Hobbs has net negative approval in a poll taken in the immediate aftermath of the abortion ban going into effect.  It might be time to think of AZ as Lean R.

There is something about Katie Hobbs that makes her a dud of sorts. I think it’s her lack of confidence. She doesn’t seem sure of herself at all. 

As for Arizona, I think with the abortion ban - in a neutral enviorment it’s a Dem state. But if the national enviorment is decisively Trump then the tide will make it a Lean R state

...

No one is listening to you you said in 22 it was Lean R

[Eraserhead]

Well, at least they're pretty close, I guess?

I bet Biden wins Nevada unless he loses the national popular vote by a couple of points or more.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Millennial MODERATE is a naysayer so what if Trump is ahead it's best to be optimistic until we vote

I had had the same 319 to 415 map I never went below 303 because AZ is a D state that had an R bias in 20/22

If we had a better Veep than Harris like Stacy Abrams or Alsobrooks then we will be leading in every poll. But, the lagging polls can be blamed on Harris not Biden

[Tekken_Guy]

I think we’re starting to see a pattern where.

Also Michigan seems to be converging with the other two rust belt battlegrounds in polling after it being a couple of points to the right for the past several months.

It’s also relatively good for downballot Rs outside NV. It’s Lake’s best poll in a long time, Robinson’s first lead in a while, and not too bad for Hovde/McCormick/Rogers.

[Lief 🗽]

Strong results for Biden once you take into account Emerson’s GOP lean.

[heatcharger]

Emerson in October 2020:

WI: Biden +8
MI: Biden +7
OH: Biden +1
IA: TRUMP +1

They also polled Vigo County, IN and found a tie. Actual result: TRUMP +15

[dspNY]

Once Emerson's 2 point Republican lean is taken into account, these polls actually look reasonable

You'd have AZ at Trump +2, GA at Trump +1, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania tied, North Carolina at Trump +3, and Nevada and Michigan at Biden +1. That sounds right in the current national environment

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/TomBevanRCP/status/1785289517848482236

[Eraserhead]

https://twitter.com/TomBevanRCP/status/1785289517848482236

This just makes running the old man again seem even more questionable.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/TomBevanRCP/status/1785289517848482236

This just makes running the old man again seem even more questionable.

Do you honestly believe the polls that have Biden behind a Ds ahead, don't believe the polls , just like Refs cheat Polls lie. We outvoted Rs in PA 950/750 K last Tues that proves Biden isn't behind in PA

It's not Biden anyways its Veep Harris whom has a lower Approval than Biden but she isn't being replaced