Emerson: Trump ahead in all swing states

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/TomBevanRCP/status/1785289517848482236

So much for "electable" Biden.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/TomBevanRCP/status/1785289517848482236

So much for "electable" Biden.

Lol all these Emerson polls are MOE 3/4 pts lol just stop , just because Biden is losing doesn't mean he will if a D is within MOE common sense

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/TomBevanRCP/status/1785289517848482236

So much for "electable" Biden.

I mean this is more of an artifact of the Republican underruning Trump's #s. The Dem candidates are running pretty even with Biden's #.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/TomBevanRCP/status/1785289517848482236

So much for "electable" Biden.

I mean this is more of an artifact of the Republican underruning Trump's #s. The Dem candidates are running pretty even with Biden's #.

Sure but that is mostly a function of name recognition.  The fact still is that if there is a GOP bias in these polls they tend to show up only for Trump-Biden and not elsewhere in the same poll.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

IMO the most notable thing is Trump retained a meaningful margin in AZ, Lake gained on Gallego, and Katie Hobbs has net negative approval in a poll taken in the immediate aftermath of the abortion ban going into effect.  It might be time to think of AZ as Lean R.

Do keep in mind that this is Emerson we’re talking about. Their final polls in 2022 had the gubernatorial race at Lake +3 and the Senate tied.

[SnowLabrador]

A few months ago I had a conversation with my sister via text, during which she sent me a TikTok claiming that Democrats intentionally lose elections so that they don't have to pass progressive policies. This carried the implication that she agreed with it.

I am not yet convinced that Biden's trying to lose. However, it's also immensely frustrating to me that Biden doesn't seem to care much about winning. He needs to go scorched-Earth on Trump, and not just on the issue of abortion. He also needs to stop vetoing the ceasefire proposal (assuming that all the pro-Palestinian protestors are acting in good faith, which is far from guaranteed). When I voted in the primary, even one of my progressive IRL friends asked me "Did you vote for someone complicit in genocide?", and I had to admit that yes, I did. I remain skeptical that the difference between Biden and downballot Democrats is this vast (since most Congressional Dems are just as pro-Israel as Biden is), but if their numbers converge, I find it more likely they converge on Biden's numbers than those of Congressional Democrats.

The bottom line is this: Trump isn't the only nominee who's running to stay out of jail, so Biden needs to realize the stakes of this election. The fact that he hasn't is unconscionable.

[jaichind]

A few months ago I had a conversation with my sister via text, during which she sent me a TikTok claiming that Democrats intentionally lose elections so that they don't have to pass progressive policies. This carried the implication that she agreed with it.

I am not yet convinced that Biden's trying to lose. However, it's also immensely frustrating to me that Biden doesn't seem to care much about winning. He needs to go scorched-Earth on Trump, and not just on the issue of abortion. He also needs to stop vetoing the ceasefire proposal (assuming that all the pro-Palestinian protestors are acting in good faith, which is far from guaranteed). When I voted in the primary, even one of my progressive IRL friends asked me "Did you vote for someone complicit in genocide?", and I had to admit that yes, I did. I remain skeptical that the difference between Biden and downballot Democrats is this vast (since most Congressional Dems are just as pro-Israel as Biden is), but if their numbers converge, I find it more likely they converge on Biden's numbers than those of Congressional Democrats.

The bottom line is this: Trump isn't the only nominee who's running to stay out of jail, so Biden needs to realize the stakes of this election. The fact that he hasn't is unconscionable.

My position is somewhat similar.  I actually prefer Trump to narrowly lose but do well enough to carry the GOP down-ballot to capture at least a Senate majority if not maintain a House majority.    And I say this as a huge fan of Trump.

My main goal is to avoid a Dem trifecta and allow a GOP Prez sometime in the next 8 years with a Senate majority to replace retiring Supreme Court justices.   The scenario I described would most likely produce a GOP Prez in 2028 with a GOP Senate majority and push off the possibility of a Dem trifecta out to 2036.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Thomas and Alito are 75 yrs old and in good health they aren't retiring

[jaichind]

Thomas and Alito are 75 yrs old and in good health they aren't retiring

Yes, but if GOP Prez wins in 2028 and stay on until a likely 2036 then GOP will control the replacement of these two justices.  I agreed 2024-2028 is not critical which make it that much easier for me to accept Trump losing in 2024 as long as GOP holds the Senate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gavin Newsom won't lose to any GOP but Harris would. Newsom won't repeat the mistake of Hillary 2.0 that's why I am supporting Newsom over Harris.


Alot of Biden weakness can be attributed to Harris not Biden she isn't Stacy Abrams or Alsobrooks. If Alsobrooks gets the S seat she will be leading Veep candidate in 28 to Newsom