Are "double haters" the new norm beyond the Trump era?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 24, 2024, 05:49:58 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 100% pro-life no matter what)
  Are "double haters" the new norm beyond the Trump era?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Are "double haters" the new norm beyond the Trump era?  (Read 1035 times)
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,206
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: April 29, 2024, 08:53:08 AM »

We're reading about and pollster frequently conduct surveys with so-called "double haters", ergo people disliking Biden and Trump as major party candidates. Sort of reminds me of 2016, while in 2020 Biden at least seemed semi-popular. That said, I wonder whether this would be any different in another matchup. Tbh, if the 2024 race was Harris vs. DeSantis, I'm fairly certain both would also have negative approvals (most likely even in double digits).

Could this phenomen be the new norm even beyond the age of Trump? Just look at surveys polling the favorabilities of other major US politicians. Most of them are underwater, regardless of party, ideology, age, gender or race. It feels like we're living in times of general anexity over politics and leaders and every presidential election is now more of a contest about who's the lesser evil. Imho, this goes way beyond Biden and Trump as candidates.
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,636


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: April 29, 2024, 09:32:57 AM »

I think itís very possible we are entering an era of anti incumbency . So instead of incumbency being something thatís considered and advantage , it becomes considered a disadvantage and btw this isnít the first time this has happened.

From 1836-1896: No incumbent president outside Lincoln or Grant ended up being reelected . So this was clearly an anti incumbency era in American politics

Logged
Libs of Ben-Gvir
Rookie
**
Posts: 23
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: April 29, 2024, 10:37:32 AM »

Not the new norm because most of the electorate is actually hyper partisan but depending on the candidates they are a sizeable share of the electorate.

In a Biden vs Trump contest double haters are 15-20% of the electorate.
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,626
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: April 29, 2024, 02:51:44 PM »

For now, it seems like it.

But 2028 could be a different story if both parties nominate fresh faces (Democrats certainly will).
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,206
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: April 30, 2024, 09:00:43 AM »

For now, it seems like it.

But 2028 could be a different story if both parties nominate fresh faces (Democrats certainly will).

Depends on the 2024 outcome. If Biden is reelected, I expect Harris to be the nominee. She won't cakewalk to the nomination alŠ Gore 2000, but she's at least the early frontrunner. She probably even runs with Biden losing this year, though then her task gets much more difficult as opposed to being a sitting VP.
Logged
Del Tachi
Republican95
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,116
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.46

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: April 30, 2024, 11:01:15 AM »

About 1-in-4 Americans have unfavorable views of both Biden and Trump. This sentiment is more common among younger adults than older adults, and among voters who identify as independents.  Only 2% of Americans have a favorable opinion of both, lol.  Pew Research

I don't think this is a new normal, however.  Trump and Biden are both uniquely unpopular politicians within their own parties.  Both parties will probably nominate more popular choices in 2028.
Logged
Steve from Lambeth
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 754
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: May 01, 2024, 10:02:51 PM »
« Edited: May 05, 2024, 07:20:48 PM by Steve from Lambeth »

I think itís very possible we are entering an era of anti incumbency . So instead of incumbency being something thatís considered and advantage , it becomes considered a disadvantage and btw this isnít the first time this has happened.

From 1836-1896: No incumbent president outside Lincoln or Grant ended up being reelected . So this was clearly an anti incumbency era in American politics


More interesting is that, for all the noise made about the 22nd Amendment, only 13 of the 45 individual Presidents thusfar - George Washington Himself, Jefferson, Madison, Monroe, Andrew Johnson, Grant, Wilson, FDR, Eisenhower, Reagan, Clinton, GW Bush and Obama - have served eight consecutive years (and Cleveland famously served eight non-consecutive years).
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,206
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: May 02, 2024, 01:31:37 AM »

About 1-in-4 Americans have unfavorable views of both Biden and Trump. This sentiment is more common among younger adults than older adults, and among voters who identify as independents.  Only 2% of Americans have a favorable opinion of both, lol.  Pew Research

I don't think this is a new normal, however.  Trump and Biden are both uniquely unpopular politicians within their own parties.  Both parties will probably nominate more popular choices in 2028.


2028 is possible, but as I said in the OP, it's not exclusively Biden and Trump. In a Harris vs. RDS matchup, it's relatively clear that both aren't liked as well.
Logged
All Along The Watchtower
Progressive Realist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,753
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: May 04, 2024, 01:57:45 PM »

About 1-in-4 Americans have unfavorable views of both Biden and Trump. This sentiment is more common among younger adults than older adults, and among voters who identify as independents.  Only 2% of Americans have a favorable opinion of both, lol.  Pew Research

I don't think this is a new normal, however.  Trump and Biden are both uniquely unpopular politicians within their own parties. Both parties will probably nominate more popular choices in 2028.


I donít really disagree, but:

Quote
Clinton couldnít get much less popular among Republicans, 88 percent of whom see her unfavorably. But sheís also lost 8 points in this measure among independents (to 31 percent) and among Democrats (to 79 percent, versus Trumpís 72 percent among Republicans).

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/poll-clinton-unpopularity-high-par-trump/story?id=41752050

Is it just a coincidence that Hillary Clinton was also unpopular in 2016? The common denominator between then and now is Trump being the Republican nominee, but that could also be a coincidence.

I guess Democrats got spoiled with Obama (not that his popularity did them much good downballotÖ). Perhaps someone more popular than Biden or Clinton, but not as popular as Obama is a realistic hope for the Dems



Logged
GAinDC
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,594


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: May 18, 2024, 04:45:58 PM »

About 1-in-4 Americans have unfavorable views of both Biden and Trump. This sentiment is more common among younger adults than older adults, and among voters who identify as independents.  Only 2% of Americans have a favorable opinion of both, lol.  Pew Research

I don't think this is a new normal, however.  Trump and Biden are both uniquely unpopular politicians within their own parties. Both parties will probably nominate more popular choices in 2028.


I donít really disagree, but:

Quote
Clinton couldnít get much less popular among Republicans, 88 percent of whom see her unfavorably. But sheís also lost 8 points in this measure among independents (to 31 percent) and among Democrats (to 79 percent, versus Trumpís 72 percent among Republicans).

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/poll-clinton-unpopularity-high-par-trump/story?id=41752050

Is it just a coincidence that Hillary Clinton was also unpopular in 2016? The common denominator between then and now is Trump being the Republican nominee, but that could also be a coincidence.

I guess Democrats got spoiled with Obama (not that his popularity did them much good downballotÖ). Perhaps someone more popular than Biden or Clinton, but not as popular as Obama is a realistic hope for the Dems





As a Dem who enthusiastically voted for Obama both times, Iíd rather have a figure like Biden ó who isnít as charismatic but has made the party stronger downballot.

Obama had two great victories, but I still wonder if they were worth the shellacking Dems got in 2010 and 2014, which made us pretty weak when Trump first came into office.

If only there was a way to have both, but it seems like itís always a trade off.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,694
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: June 10, 2024, 09:16:19 PM »

Rs like OSR don't want Ds to get the Filibuster proof Trifecta but the blue wall map goes thru 28 so if we don't get it now we are gonna eventually get it sooner or later
Logged
The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
laddicus finch
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,953


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: June 11, 2024, 01:32:07 PM »

I think itís very possible we are entering an era of anti incumbency . So instead of incumbency being something thatís considered and advantage , it becomes considered a disadvantage and btw this isnít the first time this has happened.

From 1836-1896: No incumbent president outside Lincoln or Grant ended up being reelected . So this was clearly an anti incumbency era in American politics



During that era, particularly after the Civil War, it was more that incumbency was challenged internally rather than by the other party. Republicans dominated elections, only Cleveland was able to win as a Democrat, but factionalism within the GOP is what often prevented Republican presidents from seeking re-election. In this era, I think it's less intra-party factionalism, and more of a nationwide factionalism represented by the two parties, and the country switching parties every four years.
Logged
Samof94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,484
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: June 11, 2024, 03:28:18 PM »

About 1-in-4 Americans have unfavorable views of both Biden and Trump. This sentiment is more common among younger adults than older adults, and among voters who identify as independents.  Only 2% of Americans have a favorable opinion of both, lol.  Pew Research

I don't think this is a new normal, however.  Trump and Biden are both uniquely unpopular politicians within their own parties.  Both parties will probably nominate more popular choices in 2028.

What if the GOP nominates their version of Bill Clinton in 2028 or 2032 (but born in the 1980s instead of 1940s, adjusting for age, of course) and is unusually effective in the suburbs to the point that Minnesota flips red?
Logged
Del Tachi
Republican95
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,116
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.46

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: June 11, 2024, 03:32:24 PM »

About 1-in-4 Americans have unfavorable views of both Biden and Trump. This sentiment is more common among younger adults than older adults, and among voters who identify as independents.  Only 2% of Americans have a favorable opinion of both, lol.  Pew Research

I don't think this is a new normal, however.  Trump and Biden are both uniquely unpopular politicians within their own parties.  Both parties will probably nominate more popular choices in 2028.

What if the GOP nominates their version of Bill Clinton in 2028 or 2032 (but born in the 1980s instead of 1940s, adjusting for age, of course) and is unusually effective in the suburbs to the point that Minnesota flips red?

Could happen.  Maybe he's Ron DeSantis or J.D. Vance!
Logged
Arizona Iced Tea
Minute Maid Juice
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,091


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: June 11, 2024, 05:20:46 PM »

I think people misguidingly think a lot of these new things started with Trump. And while they were more prominent, the 2012 election really did most of the footwork to get it started. Obama-Romney may feel like a friendly campaign in 2024 but it was one of the most toxic of all time when it occured. Unlike 2008, which was more mild and both candidates had mutual respect for each other, the 2012 race really changed that around. Obama and Romney started running against their opponent rather than promoting themselves, and many attacks were thrown around. This laid the groundwork for what happened in 2016 and onwards.
Logged
Pericles
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,232


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: June 11, 2024, 05:30:11 PM »

Biden was liked by almost all of his voters in 2020. So it is still possible for a candidate to have a net positive favorability rating, though I'd accept that it is harder than it was 10-20 years ago.
Logged
David Hume
davidhume
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,711
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: 1.22

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: June 18, 2024, 01:16:47 PM »

We're reading about and pollster frequently conduct surveys with so-called "double haters", ergo people disliking Biden and Trump as major party candidates. Sort of reminds me of 2016, while in 2020 Biden at least seemed semi-popular. That said, I wonder whether this would be any different in another matchup. Tbh, if the 2024 race was Harris vs. DeSantis, I'm fairly certain both would also have negative approvals (most likely even in double digits).

Could this phenomen be the new norm even beyond the age of Trump? Just look at surveys polling the favorabilities of other major US politicians. Most of them are underwater, regardless of party, ideology, age, gender or race. It feels like we're living in times of general anexity over politics and leaders and every presidential election is now more of a contest about who's the lesser evil. Imho, this goes way beyond Biden and Trump as candidates.
Trump is hated by a lot of R, and Biden is hated by a lot of D. Harris is the same with Biden, but very few R voters hate DeSantis.

So no, once Trump and Biden are gone, Candidates like DeSantis and Whitmer will be loved by their base and hated by the opposite.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.056 seconds with 12 queries.