Overlooked/underrated 2024 House races?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's my list:

CA-40. This seat is basically written off as being likely/safe R by most pundits after Youngkim's 14% victory in 2022. However, in the context of California that year, the district's downballot lag, turnout dynamics, and facing a sacrifical lamb Democrat, that win is hard to read much into. At the end of the day this is a Biden seat that has zoomed left; it went from Romney + 19 to Biden + 2; Biden winning the district by ~10% is certainly in the cards. It was also one of only 4 congressional districts where Newsom improved from his 2018 performance in 2022. So many people writing off this Biden + 2 seat that's zooming left is a mistake; I think it'd be an uphill battle for any Dem but realistic if they take the race seriously.

IA-01. Miller-Meeks literally won by 6 votes in 2020 and in 2022 she only won by 7% despite Dems investing close to nothing.

MI-04. Agree Huizenga is strongly favored but not safe R as 270towin says. This seat is only Trump + 4 and has generally been moving left and his 2022 showing was impressive but not impressive enough to justify safe R.

MI-10. James only won in 2022 by 0.5% against another underfunded Dem. This district was only Trump + 1 in 2020 but tends to be bluer downballot; he lost it in his 2020 Senate bid for instance despite outrunning Trump statewide.

NV-04. The 270towin pundit consensus has this as likely D. While Horsford won in 2022 his showing was nothing to write home about given he was the incumbent and other upballot Dems outran him. This district also has a lot of demographically unfavorable things for Democrats - mainly low educational attainment and iffy turnout from the most Dem parks of Clark it takes in. I could see Biden flipping here and giving Horsford a run for his money with it.

Any other ones come to mind?

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

MI-04 for sure. Huizenga did well in part because Dems hadn't gotten any candidate until quite literally the last minute iirc. I don't think they were anyone particularly notable either.

[Minnesota Mike]

IA-03-  Trump +0.4.  Nunn (R) +0.7. The population center, Polk and Dallas counties, are trending left and growing faster than the right trending rural parts of the district. Democrats have a solid recruit in Lanaan Baccam. Baccam is a combat vet and worked at the USDA under Tom Vilsack. Tossup race IMO.

MT-01- Rematch of 2022 where Zink (R) beat Tranel (D) by 3 points. This is the fastest growing part of the state and has been trending left.  Still probably leans Republican but one to watch. 

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

IA-03-  Trump +0.4.  Nunn (R) +0.7. The population center, Polk and Dallas counties, are trending left and growing faster than the right trending rural parts of the district. Democrats have a solid recruit in Lanaan Baccam. Baccam is a combat vet and worked at the USDA under Tom Vilsack. Tossup race IMO.

MT-01- Rematch of 2022 where Zink (R) beat Tranel (D) by 3 points. This is the fastest growing part of the state and has been trending left.  Still probably leans Republican but one to watch.  

worth also pointing out that MT-1 could've totally flipped if Native turnout in Glacier County hadn't crashed. Tranel ran 8 points behind Biden 2020 there. That's probably not going to be an issue in a Presidential year.

[ProgressiveModerate]

IA-03-  Trump +0.4.  Nunn (R) +0.7. The population center, Polk and Dallas counties, are trending left and growing faster than the right trending rural parts of the district. Democrats have a solid recruit in Lanaan Baccam. Baccam is a combat vet and worked at the USDA under Tom Vilsack. Tossup race IMO.

MT-01- Rematch of 2022 where Zink (R) beat Tranel (D) by 3 points. This is the fastest growing part of the state and has been trending left.  Still probably leans Republican but one to watch.  

worth also pointing out that MT-1 could've totally flipped if Native turnout in Glacier County hadn't crashed. Tranel ran 8 points behind Biden 2020 there. That's probably not going to be an issue in a Presidential year.

No that turnout collapse is overrated. Glacier County only netted Biden just under 2k votes in 2020. Zinke won by 8k votes in 2022. Wouldn’t have made much of a dent in the margin by itself

[SilverStar]

PA-10 Scott perry isn't a good fit for a trending blue Distcrit and the Democrat is pretty good,local TV anchor.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Do most people expect James to win reelection? I’ve been expecting him to loose

[Pollster]

I've heard many people have been impressed with Rob Lubin, the Democrat running against Andrew Garbarino in NY-02. His fundraising doesn't really impress but he's got a real team and is apparently working the rooms he needs to be. If New York and specifically Long Island Dems can pull it together there's some late play potential.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

IN-1 worries me a lot. We saw how close Republicans came to flipping it in 2022; I worry what Presidential turnout might mean for Mrvan.

Even if we pull it out, it means dedicating resources to a district we really shouldn't have to defend beyond the bare minimum.

[CityofSinners]

IN-1 worries me a lot. We saw how close Republicans came to flipping it in 2022; I worry what Presidential turnout might mean for Mrvan.

Even if we pull it out, it means dedicating resources to a district we really shouldn't have to defend beyond the bare minimum.

Dems won the seat 52.8-47.2. In a midterm with favorable turnout for republicans. There is no reason to think a presidental election would hurt dems here.

[Roll Roons]

IN-1 worries me a lot. We saw how close Republicans came to flipping it in 2022; I worry what Presidential turnout might mean for Mrvan.

Even if we pull it out, it means dedicating resources to a district we really shouldn't have to defend beyond the bare minimum.

Dems won the seat 52.8-47.2. In a midterm with favorable turnout for republicans. There is no reason to think a presidental election would hurt dems here.

Didn't Horsford have the worst opponent of the three Nevada House Democrats?