Why did Biden over perform in the primaries?

[GAinDC]

After a lot of warnings about an embarrassing loss of support to Dem challengers and write-in campaigns, Biden actually did pretty well — even with high turnout and people actively campaigning against him.

Why is this and what (if anything) does it mean for November?

[wbrocks67]

I think it's easier to say answering a poll that you'll vote for someone else but when push comes to shove, it becomes more real and voters just come home.

The thing about polling the last few months is that it's been trying to say that Trump has a total hold on his base and Biden doesn't

Yet the actual primaries actually showed that Biden does actually have a pretty good grip on his base while Trump actually does not have a hold on his base as the polls suggest

[Randy Marsh]

Because his challengers sucked and his bad polling was mostly a result of people not wanting to vote for him leading to very high undecided margins. When push came to shove, they voted for him rather than randos they didn’t know. But in states with Uncommited as an option, it did pretty well and heavily outperformed the challengers

[Arizona Iced Tea]

His performance was relatively mediocre. He will likely end somewhere in the mid 80's when its all said and done. Not terrible, but nothing to celebrate. Trump in 2020 got around 94%. People who are comparing Biden's performance to Trump's as a sign of strength are not acting in good faith. You cannot seriously compare Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley in the same tier as Dean Phillips or Marianne Williamson.

[Eraserhead]

Did he? I'm not sure I agree with the premise of the question. He basically performed as an incumbent President should in a primary with no serious competition (outside of a few states where he had some problems).

[Pres Mike]

His performance was relatively mediocre. He will likely end somewhere in the mid 80's when its all said and done. Not terrible, but nothing to celebrate. Trump in 2020 got around 94%. People who are comparing Biden's performance to Trump's as a sign of strength are not acting in good faith. You cannot seriously compare Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley in the same tier as Dean Phillips or Marianne Williamson.

President Biden is currently at 86.9%. Obama got 90.1% in 2012

12 states are left. Inculding states like Maryland, Pennsylvina, Indiana and New Jersey. I suspect once the primaries are over President Biden will have matched Obama's 2012 numbers

[Arizona Iced Tea]

His performance was relatively mediocre. He will likely end somewhere in the mid 80's when its all said and done. Not terrible, but nothing to celebrate. Trump in 2020 got around 94%. People who are comparing Biden's performance to Trump's as a sign of strength are not acting in good faith. You cannot seriously compare Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley in the same tier as Dean Phillips or Marianne Williamson.

President Biden is currently at 86.9%. Obama got 90.1% in 2012

12 states are left. Inculding states like Maryland, Pennsylvina, Indiana and New Jersey. I suspect once the primaries are over President Biden will have matched Obama's 2012 numbers

PA is already in and Biden is around 88% there. The math just isn't there for him to get to 90%. The  states he will do very well in have almost no people in the Dem primaries. He needs around mid 90's to have a chance which won't happen.

[GAinDC]

Did he? I'm not sure I agree with the premise of the question. He basically performed as an incumbent President should in a primary with no serious competition (outside of a few states where he had some problems).

Yes, that’s my point. Many thought he would do much worse.

[GAinDC]

His performance was relatively mediocre. He will likely end somewhere in the mid 80's when its all said and done. Not terrible, but nothing to celebrate. Trump in 2020 got around 94%. People who are comparing Biden's performance to Trump's as a sign of strength are not acting in good faith. You cannot seriously compare Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley in the same tier as Dean Phillips or Marianne Williamson.

President Biden is currently at 86.9%. Obama got 90.1% in 2012

12 states are left. Inculding states like Maryland, Pennsylvina, Indiana and New Jersey. I suspect once the primaries are over President Biden will have matched Obama's 2012 numbers

PA is already in and Biden is around 88% there. The math just isn't there for him to get to 90%. The  states he will do very well in have almost no people in the Dem primaries. He needs around mid 90's to have a chance which won't happen.

Is 87-88 really that much worse than 90.1?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Because those primaries were pointless and nobody that opposes Biden would even bother turning out.

[DaleCooper]

His performance was relatively mediocre. He will likely end somewhere in the mid 80's when its all said and done. Not terrible, but nothing to celebrate. Trump in 2020 got around 94%. People who are comparing Biden's performance to Trump's as a sign of strength are not acting in good faith. You cannot seriously compare Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley in the same tier as Dean Phillips or Marianne Williamson.

I do, honestly. I think if Dean Phillips or Marianne Williamson had the money and resources those other two did, they'd have done significantly better. I'm not saying they're great but DeSantis is like a meme candidate at this point. If anyone more pathetic than him has run for president in recent memory, I'm not aware of it.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

His performance was relatively mediocre. He will likely end somewhere in the mid 80's when its all said and done. Not terrible, but nothing to celebrate. Trump in 2020 got around 94%. People who are comparing Biden's performance to Trump's as a sign of strength are not acting in good faith. You cannot seriously compare Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley in the same tier as Dean Phillips or Marianne Williamson.

President Biden is currently at 86.9%. Obama got 90.1% in 2012

12 states are left. Inculding states like Maryland, Pennsylvina, Indiana and New Jersey. I suspect once the primaries are over President Biden will have matched Obama's 2012 numbers

Not really comparable. There were a ton of ancestral Ds in Appalachia and the South back then. They were already starting to convert to the GOP during Obama's presidency, but Trump cemented it. Democratic registration has plummeted in many southern and midwestern states. Many of these people were already DINOs but have now become full Republicans.

[Eraserhead]

His performance was relatively mediocre. He will likely end somewhere in the mid 80's when its all said and done. Not terrible, but nothing to celebrate. Trump in 2020 got around 94%. People who are comparing Biden's performance to Trump's as a sign of strength are not acting in good faith. You cannot seriously compare Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley in the same tier as Dean Phillips or Marianne Williamson.

President Biden is currently at 86.9%. Obama got 90.1% in 2012

12 states are left. Inculding states like Maryland, Pennsylvina, Indiana and New Jersey. I suspect once the primaries are over President Biden will have matched Obama's 2012 numbers

States like West Virginia, Kentucky and Oregon are also left. I think you're gonna be disappointed if you expect Biden to hit 90%, not that it matters that much anyway.

[Eraserhead]

Did he? I'm not sure I agree with the premise of the question. He basically performed as an incumbent President should in a primary with no serious competition (outside of a few states where he had some problems).

Yes, that’s my point. Many thought he would do much worse.

Many? Really?

I mean how much worse could an incumbent President do against non-existent competition? It's not like "Uncommitted", Williamson or Phillips were even consistently on the ballot in every state.

[Pres Mike]

His performance was relatively mediocre. He will likely end somewhere in the mid 80's when its all said and done. Not terrible, but nothing to celebrate. Trump in 2020 got around 94%. People who are comparing Biden's performance to Trump's as a sign of strength are not acting in good faith. You cannot seriously compare Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley in the same tier as Dean Phillips or Marianne Williamson.

President Biden is currently at 86.9%. Obama got 90.1% in 2012

12 states are left. Inculding states like Maryland, Pennsylvina, Indiana and New Jersey. I suspect once the primaries are over President Biden will have matched Obama's 2012 numbers

Not really comparable. There were a ton of ancestral Ds in Appalachia and the South back then. They were already starting to convert to the GOP during Obama's presidency, but Trump cemented it. Democratic registration has plummeted in many southern and midwestern states. Many of these people were already DINOs but have now become full Republicans.

True. Most of that 10% that voted "other" weren't going to vote Democrat in the general election. Among actual Democrats, Obama's support was close to 100%

[Comrade Funk]

Because those primaries were pointless and nobody that opposes Biden would even bother turning out.

But ge got 99% in this random county no one lives in! The enthusiasm is off the charts! Ignore the fact he's done mediocre in large cities he needs to win!

[Sir Mohamed]

Three main reasons:

* He's not as unpopular as the MSM and some polls may suggest. Truth is, Biden has been the most effective prez of the Dem Party since Johnson.

* Extremely weak challengers. He wasn't opposed by any rank and file Dem or a candidate with great talent and/or strong ideological differences.

* Dems and their voters overall feel that a contested primary is not in their best interest to keep Mr. Trump out of power. The stakes are too high and D-voters are well aware of that. Biden might be old, but he has incumbency and beat Trump already.

[wbrocks67]

Jesus, the same schtick from the same people every time. Now we're splitting hairs acting as if Biden's 87% performance is 100x worse than Obama's 90% performance, despite the fact that Biden has and had gotten sh*t for 10 months leading up to this primary about how he should literally be booted from the ticket.

Trump got 94% in 2020 b/c his supporters are cult members and the fact that he not only had token opposition, but there was quite literally *no one* saying he shouldn't be running again. This year was obviously completely different for Biden.

[Libs of Ben-Gvir]

"Overperform" is quite a stretch, many states don't have an uncommitted option and they don't count invalid votes. Like Biden's result in Maine looks great (close to 90%) but then you find out 10% left their ballots blank (only wikipedia shows it). In Portland it was 20%.

The results in states like Michigan and Minnesota where they do exist are a major red flag for Biden. The fact that Hennepin county gave 25% to uncommitted is quite a lot.

He did do better in later primaries than the earlier ones for sure because Gaza got out of the news a bit. But if a Rafah campaign starts...

[GAinDC]

"Overperform" is quite a stretch, many states don't have an uncommitted option and they don't count invalid votes. Like Biden's result in Maine looks great (close to 90%) but then you find out 10% left their ballots blank (only wikipedia shows it). In Portland it was 20%.

The results in states like Michigan and Minnesota where they do exist are a major red flag for Biden. The fact that Hennepin county gave 25% to uncommitted is quite a lot.

He did do better in later primaries than the earlier ones for sure because Gaza got out of the news a bit. But if a Rafah campaign starts...

What's even the point of voting uncommitted and making a big deal about if it doesn't even show up in the vote totals?

[wbrocks67]

"Overperform" is quite a stretch, many states don't have an uncommitted option and they don't count invalid votes. Like Biden's result in Maine looks great (close to 90%) but then you find out 10% left their ballots blank (only wikipedia shows it). In Portland it was 20%.

The results in states like Michigan and Minnesota where they do exist are a major red flag for Biden. The fact that Hennepin county gave 25% to uncommitted is quite a lot.

He did do better in later primaries than the earlier ones for sure because Gaza got out of the news a bit. But if a Rafah campaign starts...

What's even the point of voting uncommitted and making a big deal about if it doesn't even show up in the vote totals?

Yeah this is a flop argument. Blank ballots, write-ins, etc. never get counted. This isn't some new thing for Biden. Those ballots were not counted in the totals for any other year, so why would they be counted now? [ for the official totals ]

[GAinDC]

"Overperform" is quite a stretch, many states don't have an uncommitted option and they don't count invalid votes. Like Biden's result in Maine looks great (close to 90%) but then you find out 10% left their ballots blank (only wikipedia shows it). In Portland it was 20%.

The results in states like Michigan and Minnesota where they do exist are a major red flag for Biden. The fact that Hennepin county gave 25% to uncommitted is quite a lot.

He did do better in later primaries than the earlier ones for sure because Gaza got out of the news a bit. But if a Rafah campaign starts...

What's even the point of voting uncommitted and making a big deal about if it doesn't even show up in the vote totals?

Yeah this is a flop argument. Blank ballots, write-ins, etc. never get counted. This isn't some new thing for Biden. Those ballots were not counted in the totals for any other year, so why would they be counted now? [ for the official totals ]

Exactly. Another way of moving the goalposts away from Biden to make him look weaker

[Libs of Ben-Gvir]

"Overperform" is quite a stretch, many states don't have an uncommitted option and they don't count invalid votes. Like Biden's result in Maine looks great (close to 90%) but then you find out 10% left their ballots blank (only wikipedia shows it). In Portland it was 20%.

The results in states like Michigan and Minnesota where they do exist are a major red flag for Biden. The fact that Hennepin county gave 25% to uncommitted is quite a lot.

He did do better in later primaries than the earlier ones for sure because Gaza got out of the news a bit. But if a Rafah campaign starts...

What's even the point of voting uncommitted and making a big deal about if it doesn't even show up in the vote totals?

Yeah this is a flop argument. Blank ballots, write-ins, etc. never get counted. This isn't some new thing for Biden. Those ballots were not counted in the totals for any other year, so why would they be counted now? [ for the official totals ]

Exactly. Another way of moving the goalposts away from Biden to make him look weaker

You don't need to. Just remind that he trails an insurrectionist as an incumbent.

Also I guess Bernie taking 6% in Vermont as a write-in wasn't a bad sign for Hillary in 2016 at all. It's just his home state!

[GAinDC]

"Overperform" is quite a stretch, many states don't have an uncommitted option and they don't count invalid votes. Like Biden's result in Maine looks great (close to 90%) but then you find out 10% left their ballots blank (only wikipedia shows it). In Portland it was 20%.

The results in states like Michigan and Minnesota where they do exist are a major red flag for Biden. The fact that Hennepin county gave 25% to uncommitted is quite a lot.

He did do better in later primaries than the earlier ones for sure because Gaza got out of the news a bit. But if a Rafah campaign starts...

What's even the point of voting uncommitted and making a big deal about if it doesn't even show up in the vote totals?

Yeah this is a flop argument. Blank ballots, write-ins, etc. never get counted. This isn't some new thing for Biden. Those ballots were not counted in the totals for any other year, so why would they be counted now? [ for the official totals ]

Exactly. Another way of moving the goalposts away from Biden to make him look weaker

You don't need to. Just remind that he trails an insurrectionist as an incumbent.

Also I guess Bernie taking 6% in Vermont as a write-in wasn't a bad sign for Hillary in 2016 at all. It's just his home state!

Who says he's trailing? I can point to a lot of polls that show Biden leading.

[Eraserhead]

Jesus, the same schtick from the same people every time. Now we're splitting hairs acting as if Biden's 87% performance is 100x worse than Obama's 90% performance, despite the fact that Biden has and had gotten sh*t for 10 months leading up to this primary about how he should literally be booted from the ticket.

Trump got 94% in 2020 b/c his supporters are cult members and the fact that he not only had token opposition, but there was quite literally *no one* saying he shouldn't be running again. This year was obviously completely different for Biden.

I gotta love the irony that this is coming from someone who can't mentally compute why anyone would support someone other than Biden in the primary.