StackStrat - Biden +3

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/1783401228958933185?s=46

Biden - 50
Trump - 47

EC model is 287-251 Biden

[wbrocks67]

So did they run a poll and find Biden +3 nationally and then allocate that out to an MRP model?

[MR DARK BRANDON]

So did they run a poll and find Biden +3 nationally and then allocate that out to an MRP model?

I think so they did smth similar back in November

[Illiniwek]

The gold standard has spoken.

[BlueSwan]

I seriously doubt that a 3 point national victory would give Biden all of the key swing states except Georgia. The way things are looking now a 3 point national win seems unlikely to actually be enough to get to 270.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said all those WSJ and Heritage polls are crap

[Sir Mohamed]

I seriously doubt that a 3 point national victory would give Biden all of the key swing states except Georgia. The way things are looking now a 3 point national win seems unlikely to actually be enough to get to 270.

If the margin narrows in NY and FL becomes safe R, it's possible. Trump's EC advantage seems to have faded a bit and Biden could win with a 3 pt. margin. Of courde would better for him to win by 4-5 pts.

[GAinDC]

Not sure how accurate this model is but the county results are pretty cool and look realistic

[BlueSwan]

I seriously doubt that a 3 point national victory would give Biden all of the key swing states except Georgia. The way things are looking now a 3 point national win seems unlikely to actually be enough to get to 270.

If the margin narrows in NY and FL becomes safe R, it's possible. Trump's EC advantage seems to have faded a bit and Biden could win with a 3 pt. margin. Of courde would better for him to win by 4-5 pts.

Theoretically, yes, but I want to see some good swing state polling for Biden before I believe it. They have been atrocious so far.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is the right poll

[Vern]

This is the right poll

Because it shows what you want, right?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is the right poll

Because it shows what you want, right?

All Biden needs is NV, NH, MI, PA and WI and PA turnout on Tues showed that there are more Ds in blue states than Rs

[Vern]

This is the right poll

Because it shows what you want, right?

All Biden needs is NV, NH, MI, PA and WI and PA turnout on Tues showed that there are more Ds in blue states than Rs

Whatever you say.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I seriously doubt that a 3 point national victory would give Biden all of the key swing states except Georgia. The way things are looking now a 3 point national win seems unlikely to actually be enough to get to 270.

I could totally buy this.  The only states decided by <1 point in 2020 were AZ, GA, and WI.  And my impression is that while Georgia has shifted slightly right, Arizona and Wisconsin have shifted slightly left.  Not to mention that New York and California seem likely to shift a bit right.

[RI]

MRP is... difficult to use accurately in US elections

This is the swing map they're projecting in the two-way race:

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is the right poll

Because it shows what you want, right?

All Biden needs is NV, NH, MI, PA and WI and PA turnout on Tues showed that there are more Ds in blue states than Rs

Whatever you say.

You aren't a moderator either we don't have to answer questions.

I can be smart or silly too

[Kamala's side hoe]

MRP is... difficult to use accurately in US elections

This is the swing map they're projecting in the two-way race:

The model predicts 7-8 point R swings in the Bay Area counties, 5-8 point R swings in coastal SoCal, and also has Travis County TX swinging R by more than any other county in the Texas Triangle. (Metro) NYC and Big City FL have smaller R swings here that I would've expected given the topline of Biden+3 and a 287-251 EC win.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Our methodology

We conducted 7,793 online interviews of US registered voters between 27 March and 13 April 2023.

To ensure the representativeness of the overall sample, we used quotas on age and gender (interlocked), region, level of educational attainment, ethnicity and past voting behaviour at the last presidential election. All incoming data was also subjected to an extensive quality review process in order to ensure the removal of bots from the survey.

An 'MRP' model (Multilevel Regression with Poststratification) was used to estimate the relationships between key demographic variables and voting behaviour. This model was then applied to a detailed 'poststratification sheet' containing local-level demographic information on the American public to estimate voting behaviour at the county level. By adding all these cells up, we can then infer how the public would split by county, state, or across the country as a whole.

[RI]

MRP is... difficult to use accurately in US elections

This is the swing map they're projecting in the two-way race:

The model predicts 7-8 point R swings in the Bay Area counties, 5-8 point R swings in coastal SoCal, and also has Travis County TX swinging R by more than any other county in the Texas Triangle. (Metro) NYC and Big City FL have smaller R swings here that I would've expected given the topline of Biden+3 and a 287-251 EC win.

There's a lot of unrealistic mean reversion throughout.

[GAinDC]

MRP is... difficult to use accurately in US elections

This is the swing map they're projecting in the two-way race:

The model predicts 7-8 point R swings in the Bay Area counties, 5-8 point R swings in coastal SoCal, and also has Travis County TX swinging R by more than any other county in the Texas Triangle. (Metro) NYC and Big City FL have smaller R swings here that I would've expected given the topline of Biden+3 and a 287-251 EC win.

There's a lot of unrealistic mean reversion throughout.

I'm looking at the Georgia map and it's weird. Pretty much all of the blue counties in metro Atlanta shift to Trump and all the rural red counties shift to Biden. I don't see that happening

[soundchaser]

Prefer the SUNBELT STACK STRAT

[Progressive Pessimist]

Never heard of them, but I could buy this as the end result.

[Sbane]

I could definitely see this as the final result with the more conservative south sticking with the Republicans and the more libertarian west going for Biden and the dems due to the abortion issue. The midwest and particularly Pennsylvania deciding who the winner is. Feels right to me.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

something really interesting with this poll, it shows RFK Jr taking more from Trump than Biden in every state, except GA. Kinda lines up with my theory that RFK Jr voters are low-educated, low-info, probably more rural voters with little difference regarding race. That'd make sense that it'd hurt Biden more in GA because you have a lot of black belt voters who might go to him, assuming that assessment of his voters is indeed correct, of course. Meanwhile elsewhere Ds are generally higher education, so RFK's voters being less educated hurts Trump more, since he'd be taking more of them.


Still, it's one poll, so there's obviously a lot of uncertainty here.

[Pericles]

Looking at the actual MRP, the election comes down to a 0.06% margin in Pennsylvania.