Qpac - Tie

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3896

Biden - 46
Trump - 46

Tie in 5 way as well

[heatcharger]

We love our abortions, don’t we folks?

We’re seeing young people fall in love with this campaign. Beautiful to watch.

[President Johnson]

Meh, Biden was ahead in their last poll.

[Redban]

Good poll for Trump for this pollster. They's been very pro-Biden. The last head-to-heads:

Biden +3 (march)
Biden +4 (feb)
Biden +6 (Jan)
Biden +1 (Dec)
Trump 2 (Nov)
Biden +1 (Oct)
Biden +1 (Sept)
Biden +1 (Aug)
Biden +5 (July)

The poll from Morning Consult / Bloomberg said that Biden's SOTU bump is fading and that the race is reverting to pre-SOTU numbers. This poll may support that conclusion

[2016]

Good poll for Trump for this pollster. They's been very pro-Biden. The last head-to-heads:

Biden +3 (march)
Biden +4 (feb)
Biden +6 (Jan)
Biden +1 (Dec)
Trump 2 (Nov)
Biden +1 (Oct)
Biden +1 (Sept)
Biden +1 (Aug)
Biden +5 (July)

The poll from Morning Consult / Bloomberg said that Biden's SOTU bump is fading and that the race is reverting to pre-SOTU numbers. This poll may support that conclusion

Biden now being tied in the most friendly Biden Pollster this Cycle is bad News for him!

[kwabbit]

Good poll for Trump for this pollster. They's been very pro-Biden. The last head-to-heads:

Biden +3 (march)
Biden +4 (feb)
Biden +6 (Jan)
Biden +1 (Dec)
Trump 2 (Nov)
Biden +1 (Oct)
Biden +1 (Sept)
Biden +1 (Aug)
Biden +5 (July)

The poll from Morning Consult / Bloomberg said that Biden's SOTU bump is fading and that the race is reverting to pre-SOTU numbers. This poll may support that conclusion

Qpac is doing some weird stuff with methodology, I'm pretty sure. I think they switched something up in January and have since hedged back towards what they were doing in 2023.

[Matty]

This is not a great poll for Biden to say the least

[Devils30]

There are a pretty decent amount of Republicans 40-45% who are effectively pro-choice. This is probably a majority outside the south. GOP should run blue collar candidates who back the blue, support American manufacturing but are apathetic/okay with abortion at least up to 15 or so weeks. This type of GOP can completely take advantage of the Dems ridiculous identity politics and might even get them some Governors in places like CT, NY, RI.

[dspNY]

Crosstabs look pretty good except for young voters. There is no way Trump is winning or even with young voters (for the 10,000th time already)

This is also the 3rd straight high quality national poll where RFK Jr either hurts Trump more than Biden or is taking evenly from both. Trump has to be concerned that RFK Jr could gain more traction and take more of his voters. That being said I still don't think RFK Jr can get more than 5-6% nationally, and less than that in swing states

[dspNY]

One more tidbit: A conviction in the hush money trial matters to 36% of voters. 15% of voters actually would be more likely to vote for him, but they're probably already Trump voters. 21% of voters would be less likely to vote for him, and it's likely they are mostly swing voters. So if Quinnipiac is right the election probably moves to the Biden +3 or Biden +6 range with a Trump conviction (which is in line with other polling).

[2016]

@Devils30,
The Job Approval of an Incumbent President is "indicative" how his Re-Election chances are. Now Biden may run ahead of his JA by a few Points but not by 8 or 10 Points like some Polls are suggesting.

Bidens JA this week:

@Economist/YouGov 41 %
@Monmouth 41 %
@Rasmussen Daily Tracker 39 %
@Qunnipiac 35 %

[2016]

One more tidbit: A conviction in the hush money trial matters to 36% of voters. 15% of voters actually would be more likely to vote for him, but they're probably already Trump voters. 21% of voters would be less likely to vote for him, and it's likely they are mostly swing voters. So if Quinnipiac is right the election probably moves to the Biden +3 or Biden +6 range with a Trump conviction (which is in line with other polling).

Trump won't be convicted in the Hush Money Trial. Even some of the experts at MSNBC, which is the most D-friendly Network, are now backing off and say that the case lacks evidence. That's my view as well. DA Alvin Bragg only brought this up to hurt Trumps Poll Numbers.

[Dan the Roman]

One more tidbit: A conviction in the hush money trial matters to 36% of voters. 15% of voters actually would be more likely to vote for him, but they're probably already Trump voters. 21% of voters would be less likely to vote for him, and it's likely they are mostly swing voters. So if Quinnipiac is right the election probably moves to the Biden +3 or Biden +6 range with a Trump conviction (which is in line with other polling).

Trump won't be convicted in the Hush Money Trial. Even some of the experts at MSNBC, which is the most D-friendly Network, are now backing off and say that the case lacks evidence. That's my view as well. DA Alvin Bragg only brought this up to hurt Trumps Poll Numbers.

There is very little chance he will be convicted at the end of the appellate process in this case for a multitude of reasons, but I would not be entirely certain he won't be at the trial court level. The NYC juries aren't inclined to like him, and his legal strategy hasn't really endeared him. Since the approach seems to be to play to the media at the trial court and then to let his lawyers run real arguments at appeal. Which is why he almost got into serious problems with the Trump Org case.

[Rand]

Qpac Shakur

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We love our abortions, don’t we folks?

We’re seeing young people fall in love with this campaign. Beautiful to watch.

We love our useless Trump tax CUTS

[wbrocks67]

Good poll for Trump for this pollster. They's been very pro-Biden. The last head-to-heads:

Biden +3 (march)
Biden +4 (feb)
Biden +6 (Jan)
Biden +1 (Dec)
Trump 2 (Nov)
Biden +1 (Oct)
Biden +1 (Sept)
Biden +1 (Aug)
Biden +5 (July)

The poll from Morning Consult / Bloomberg said that Biden's SOTU bump is fading and that the race is reverting to pre-SOTU numbers. This poll may support that conclusion

You're basically cherrypicking polls at this point to support your narrative; also it's been over a month and a half after SOTU. That "bump" would've long subsided by now.

It's funny how you accuse people of cherrypicking or ignoring polls that don't fit their narrative when you do literally the exact same thing

Also, this poll had Biden +6 in January and +4 in February before the SOTU, so not sure how that factors into anything here.

[heatcharger]

We love our abortions, don’t we folks?

We’re seeing young people fall in love with this campaign. Beautiful to watch.

We love our useless Trump tax CUTS

Lol, everyone is saying FREE TRUMP in LA and NY

MAHOMES and Curry endorsed Biden last time but now are staying quiet. Rich celebs want TRUMP

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We love our abortions, don’t we folks?

We’re seeing young people fall in love with this campaign. Beautiful to watch.

We love our useless Trump tax CUTS

Lol, everyone is saying FREE TRUMP in LA and NY

MAHOMES and Curry endorsed Biden last time but now are staying quiet. Rich celebs want TRUMP

Everyone knows Mahomes, Lebron and Curry are Ds they helped get George Floyd his 33 M dollars.

Hockey players and Baseball players belong to Country golf Club Rs, Alex Ovechkin and Jim Thome, Curt Schilling and Mike Piazza all Golf with Trump not basketball and Football players whom golfs with Tigers Wood and Jordan

The Russians in Hockey are staunch R but the Swedish and American Hockey players are Ds

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

We love our abortions, don’t we folks?

We’re seeing young people fall in love with this campaign. Beautiful to watch.

We love our useless Trump tax CUTS

Lol, everyone is saying FREE TRUMP in LA and NY

MAHOMES and Curry endorsed Biden last time but now are staying quiet. Rich celebs want TRUMP

Stephen A was already told to get with the program by NAACP, Keith Olberman and HBCU Gameday and told him to stop repeating the polls and op-eds because they might become reality if he repeats it.

Even though Sean Hannity is a dear close personal friend, the NAACP told him to think about his words and actions and do better. They will tell Mahommes to get on board too, but Jackson and PAT SR are in court and Biden has not pardoned them.

[GAinDC]

@Devils30,
The Job Approval of an Incumbent President is "indicative" how his Re-Election chances are. Now Biden may run ahead of his JA by a few Points but not by 8 or 10 Points like some Polls are suggesting.

Bidens JA this week:

@Economist/YouGov 41 %
@Monmouth 41 %
@Rasmussen Daily Tracker 39 %
@Qunnipiac 35 %

You forgot Marist at 43%

[heatcharger]

We love our abortions, don’t we folks?

We’re seeing young people fall in love with this campaign. Beautiful to watch.

We love our useless Trump tax CUTS

Lol, everyone is saying FREE TRUMP in LA and NY

MAHOMES and Curry endorsed Biden last time but now are staying quiet. Rich celebs want TRUMP

Stephen A was already told to get with the program by NAACP, Keith Olberman and HBCU Gameday and told him to stop repeating the polls and op-eds because they might become reality if he repeats it.

Even though Sean Hannity is a dear close personal friend, the NAACP told him to think about his words and actions and do better. They will tell Mahommes to get on board too, but Jackson and PAT SR are in court and Biden has not pardoned them.

Stephen A is a Christie supporter

Brock Pirdy is a MAGA supporter as he is a Christian R. He will endorse Trumo before Eday

Remember, Purdy is not facing Mahomes he is facing KC defense. Mccaffrey is a Dubya R but will not endorse as he is an RB

Lol, blks will not vote Trump but many will stay home due to inflation and CRIME

[heatcharger]

Everyone knows Mahomes, Lebron and Curry are Ds they helped get George Floyd his 33 M dollars.

Hockey players and Baseball players belong to Country golf Club Rs, Alex Ovechkin and Jim Thome, Curt Schilling and Mike Piazza all Golf with Trump not basketball and Football players whom golfs with Tigers Wood and Jordan

The Russians in Hockey are staunch R but the Swedish and American Hockey players are Ds

Ovechkin is a MAR-A-LAGO Russian R. He will endorse before Eday

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1783195474800877783

[Ljube]

Quinnipiac is the worst pollster.
Their methodology is outdated.
They only use phone interviews.

[Sir Mohamed]

Not great for Biden, but could be statistical noise. We need more polls to validate a shift backwards.