What’s most likely in NY Case - Acquittal or Jail Time?

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

What’s most likely in NY Case - Acquittal or Jail Time?

[dspNY]

Neither: Probation

[Malarkey Decider]

Both are extremely unlikely.

[SteveRogers]

Neither: Probation

Quite possibly probation on a lesser-included misdemeanor offense.

[TML]

Jail time could be possible not by conviction, but by being held in contempt of court (if Trump continues his attacks on individuals associated with the case in violation of his gag orders).

[Randy Marsh]

Funnily enough, betting markets have the odds about equal. 16% chance of Trump jail, 18% chance of Trump acquittal or mistrial

One could argue mistrial (hung jury) is far more likely than acquittal though. Especially in Manhattan which voted 80% D

[Cyrusman]

Funnily enough, betting markets have the odds about equal. 16% chance of Trump jail, 18% chance of Trump acquittal or mistrial

One could argue mistrial (hung jury) is far more likely than acquittal though. Especially in Manhattan which voted 80% D

What is their reasoning for acquittal being so low?

[SWE]

Jail time would be excessive for these charges

[President Johnson]

Jail time would be excessive for these charges

Yeah, I think Trump probably gets fined, but immediately appeals if convicted.

[SteveRogers]

Funnily enough, betting markets have the odds about equal. 16% chance of Trump jail, 18% chance of Trump acquittal or mistrial

One could argue mistrial (hung jury) is far more likely than acquittal though. Especially in Manhattan which voted 80% D

What is their reasoning for acquittal being so low?

Probably the fact that he definitely did it.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Jail, followed by a quick successful appeal. Both Bragg and the judge will want to make an example after all of Trump's antics, but that isn't likely to work out well for them. On to bigger and better cases.

[brucejoel99]

I've always figured that his Secret Service detail would help him get sentenced to no worse than probation & house arrest if he's criminally convicted, but with everyday that his demeanor & conduct put his disrespect for the rule of law on full display, he certainly doesn't help his chances at stopping Merchan from taking disrespect for the court into account when deliberating on an appropriate sentence.

[The Mikado]

I'm very skeptical of jail time especially in THIS case where it'd be the lowest grade of felony if convicted and he has no prior record.

Some form of home confinement plus probation would be way likelier. Either way, if he's convicted he won't actually deal with the effects until months from now due to appeals.

(Home confinement to the grounds of Mar a Lago with an ankle monitor would actually be kind of hilarious. Real Napoleon in Elba situation)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

(Home confinement to the grounds of Mar a Lago with an ankle monitor would actually be kind of hilarious. Real Napoleon in Elba situation)

All the more like Elba if he gets elected and therefore gets to leave and take power again.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Jail time could be possible not by conviction, but by being held in contempt of court (if Trump continues his attacks on individuals associated with the case in violation of his gag orders).

Voted jail time on these grounds. Even if it's not really likely.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

(Home confinement to the grounds of Mar a Lago with an ankle monitor would actually be kind of hilarious. Real Napoleon in Elba situation)

All the more like Elba if he gets elected and therefore gets to leave and take power again.

I don't see why getting elected should somehow get him out of serving any ongoing sentence. He can be President from prison (with the VP exercising any duties he cannot). The President is not a damned "king".

[emailking]

I actually voted acquittal

[SteveRogers]

(Home confinement to the grounds of Mar a Lago with an ankle monitor would actually be kind of hilarious. Real Napoleon in Elba situation)

All the more like Elba if he gets elected and therefore gets to leave and take power again.

I don't see why getting elected should somehow get him out of serving any ongoing sentence. He can be President from prison (with the VP exercising any duties he cannot). The President is not a damned "king".

The real question is whether Trump’s VP and cabinet would do the right thing and invoke the 25th Amendment for the duration of Trump’s jail sentence in that scenario.

[soundchaser]

I actually voted acquittal

Because you think Merchan is very unlikely to impose jail time? (I agree — house arrest is the max sentence I can see.)

[emailking]

Right, I think neither acquittal or jail time are particularly likely. I think jail time could only results from Merchan getting so POed at Trump that he lets it affect his decision making, but so far that has not been the case. On the other hand, I think acquittal is an underrated possibility. But conviction or hung jury are still more likely.

[Cyrusman]

I’m on a legal expert but wouldn’t acquittal just take one of the 12 jurors not voting guilty? If that’s the case how is that not the winner of this question? Doesn’t seem that unlikely to envision a situation where one of twelve votes doesn’t believe he’s guilty.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I’m on a legal expert but wouldn’t acquittal just take one of the 12 jurors not voting guilty? If that’s the case how is that not the winner of this question? Doesn’t seem that unlikely to envision a situation where one of twelve votes doesn’t believe he’s guilty.

I recall reading somewhere that one of the biggest errors in discussions about this case is framing it as though Trump is facing a single charge -- he could get not guilty votes on some of the thirty-odd charges, but it's unlikely he'd be acquitted on every charge.  

Then again, I'm not a lawyer nor do I really understand the connections between each of the charges.  And I certainly don't anticipate he'll actually face jail time. 

[emailking]

I’m on a legal expert but wouldn’t acquittal just take one of the 12 jurors not voting guilty? If that’s the case how is that not the winner of this question? Doesn’t seem that unlikely to envision a situation where one of twelve votes doesn’t believe he’s guilty.

Acquittal takes all 12 jurors voting not guilty. It seems unlikely because the evidence against Trump looks solid so far and this is definitely not a jury pool full of Trump supporters.

It only takes one juror to cause a hung jury though, a mistrial. This is probably a more likely possibility than outright acquittal.

[emailking]

I’m on a legal expert but wouldn’t acquittal just take one of the 12 jurors not voting guilty? If that’s the case how is that not the winner of this question? Doesn’t seem that unlikely to envision a situation where one of twelve votes doesn’t believe he’s guilty.

I recall reading somewhere that one of the biggest errors in discussions about this case is framing it as though Trump is facing a single charge -- he could get not guilty votes on some of the thirty-odd charges, but it's unlikely he'd be acquitted on every charge.  

Then again, I'm not a lawyer nor do I really understand the connections between each of the charges.  And I certainly don't anticipate he'll actually face jail time.  

The charges are basically all identical but take place on different dates and have different corroborating documents so it's certainly possible there could be mixed verdicts on the various counts, but also very possible (likely?) that there will be a unified verdict on all of them if there is one.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Jail for Contempt of Court