Truman dies in 1947

[Lincoln Republican]

Tragically, President Harry Truman dies in November, 1947.

By virtue of the Presidential Succession Act signed into law by President Truman himself in 1947, the Speaker of the House, Republican Joseph William Martin, Jr. of Massachusetts, becomes President.  President Martin serves as President until the new President will be sworn into office following the 1948 election.

The Democrats choose respected and experienced Maryland Senator Millard Tydings for President, and equally respected and experienced Kentucky Senator Alben Barkley for Vice President.  (Actual VP nominee in 1948)   

The Republican Presidential nominee is New York  Governor Thomas E. Dewey, and the Vice Presidential nominee is California Governor Earl Warren.  (Actual ticket in 1948)

How does this election turn out?

Maps?

[CPT MikeyMike]

It would boil down to how effective was Joe Martin as president. If he was effective over the year, then Dewey wins. If Martin was ineffective, Dewey still has a chance but I would call it a toss-up.

[Lincoln Republican]

Truman dies of a heart attack.

The point is, Dewey now faces Senator Millard Tydings of Maryland in the election, not the incumbent President, and the issue is, who wins this election?

Your thoughts, anyone?

[Lincoln Republican]

Thoughts anyone else?

I'm still waiting for views of how this might turn out.

By the way CPT, thank you for your thoughtful input.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Dewey would of won CA and won the election.

[Lincoln Republican]

Here is how I see this election playing out.

Dewey picks up strength in the midwest and west to put him over the top, running against Senator Tydings from Maryland as opposed to running against the incumbent President.

In addition to what Dewey won in 1948, in this scenario, he adds California, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

Thomas Dewey/Earl Warren                      291
Millard Tydings/Alben Barkley                    202
Strom Thurmond/Fielding Wright                 38
Henry Wallace/Glen Taylor                            0

Dewey serves with distinction and with forcefulness in his first term, and President Dewey and Vice President Warren are reelected in 1952 in a decisive victory over Democrats Adlai Stevenson and John Sparkman, eclipsing their solid win in 1948.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Without Truman pushing forward the strong Civil Rights platform, there's no Dixiecrat candidate, and the South stays solid.  The election is much closer, because Tydings can't campaign like Truman, but the Democrats barely win.
Tydings/Barkley: 269
Dewey/Warren: 262

[gorkay]

I'm wondering if you would have had the Wallace and Thurmond defections in '48 with Tydings as the nominee. If not, you'd think he'd be a shoo-in, based on what really happened.

But this illustrates why you can't judge these things by numbers and maps alone. You have to consider how the whole dynamic of the election would change. Since Tydings wouldn't be the incumbent and would be running against a House, Senate, and presidency controlled by the GOP, he wouldn't have had the burden of defending anyone's record but his own. Paradoxically, this might have led to a race that was judged to be closer from the outset, which would have forced Dewey to run harder instead of playing it safe. That means he may well have run a more effective campaign (he ran pretty well in 1944 when he was much more aggressive), which may have led to him winning.