New York- sienna- Biden +10

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1782349187004191016

[wbrocks67]

31% of Dems supporting a national abortion ban after 15 weeks? 29% of Reps against it? 41% of young voters supporting it?

48% of voters supporting ‘allow parent groups to override educators decisions on what books should be available to students?’ While only 45% oppose?

Something smells very bad about these #s lol but the GCB is only D+13 here anyway too

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Dems shouldn't root for Trump making big gains in NY and CA  because while it might slightly affect the EC advantage, it means Rs easily retain the house.

[Sir Mohamed]

31% of Dems supporting a national abortion ban after 15 weeks? 29% of Reps against it? 41% of young voters supporting it?

48% of voters supporting ‘allow parent groups to override educators decisions on what books should be available to students?’ While only 45% oppose?

Something smells very bad about these #s lol but the GCB is only D+13 here anyway too

The most realistic number in this poll is Trump at 37%, lol.

That said, I expect him to get slightly more, between 39% and 42%, while Biden lands in upper 50s territory. Schumer 2022 is his worst case scenario, I'd say, with Trump finishing below Pinion (the rest is 3rd parties).

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Dems shouldn't root for Trump making big gains in NY and CA  because while it might slightly affect the EC advantage, it means Rs easily retain the house.

Depends where the gains are coming from. If it's safe D seats in NYC, LA, then it won't matter. If it's upstate NY or the rest of Long Island, or suburban areas in SoCal, then it will be rough.

Also, Rs already gained many of these seats in 2022, so there's not much room to grow.

[Redban]

48% of voters supporting ‘allow parent groups to override educators decisions on what books should be available to students?’ While only 45% oppose?

This is a very unusual crosstab to use to un-skew the poll.

Abortion and GCB might make some sense, but we're using a crosstab about a PTA-issue? That is some un-skewing gymnastics

[RI]

Difference between Trump-Biden and GCB:

Catholics: Trump +2
Protestants: Biden +4
Jews: Trump +11
Other: Trump +2

White: Biden +1
Black: Trump +18
Hispanic: Trump +16

[UncleSam]

Very good poll for Trump, even if the final margin will certainly by wider than this.

Not talked about much since it doesn’t matter, but it does seem like NY has trended right a fair bit in the last four years.

[wbrocks67]

48% of voters supporting ‘allow parent groups to override educators decisions on what books should be available to students?’ While only 45% oppose?

This is a very unusual crosstab to use to un-skew the poll.

Abortion and GCB might make some sense, but we're using a crosstab about a PTA-issue? That is some un-skewing gymnastics

Commenting on a specific question's result is now 'unskewing'? The word has truly lost all meaning at this point

[Skill and Chance]

NY being about Biden +10 with the national PV being roughly tied and with evidence most of the swing/trend is coming out of NYC has now been a consistent result for a year or more.  It's time to take it seriously. 

It also fits with the 2022 NY statewide election results and the meaningful trend toward Trump in NYC in 2020.  For those who believe on-the-ground campaigning matters a lot, also note that Trump is effectively trapped in NYC for several weeks.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NY being about Biden +10 with the national PV being roughly tied and with evidence most of the swing/trend is coming out of NYC has now been a consistent result for a year or more.  It's time to take it seriously. 

It also fits with the 2022 NY statewide election results and the meaningful trend toward Trump in NYC in 2020.  For those who believe on-the-ground campaigning matters a lot, also note that Trump is effectively trapped in NYC for several weeks.

You are wrong Hochul won by 5 not 10 it's trend is D

[Redban]

NY being about Biden +10 with the national PV being roughly tied and with evidence most of the swing/trend is coming out of NYC has now been a consistent result for a year or more.  It's time to take it seriously. 

It also fits with the 2022 NY statewide election results and the meaningful trend toward Trump in NYC in 2020.  For those who believe on-the-ground campaigning matters a lot, also note that Trump is effectively trapped in NYC for several weeks.

You are wrong Hochul won by 5 not 10 it's trend is D

Schumer won by 13-14% or so

[Lief 🗽]

Beautiful result! Trump’s EV advantage is disappearing before our eyes!!

[GAinDC]

That would be wild to see a Democrat win the election while only winning New York state by 10 points

[TheReckoning]

Difference between Trump-Biden and GCB:

Catholics: Trump +2
Protestants: Biden +4
Jews: Trump +11
Other: Trump +2

White: Biden +1
Black: Trump +18
Hispanic: Trump +16

Why do you think Trump is more popular among Catholics than Republicans are?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That would be wild to see a Democrat win the election while only winning New York state by 10 points

We won the 303 map in 22 when Hochul won by five

[President Johnson]

Is there any real indication beyond polls that Trump all of a sudden is more popular in New York? 2022 were other candidates and circumstances and the worst result I could see for Biden is a margin of 15 points. Most likely with a higher third party share than nationwide. So if you ask me what the worst result for Biden could be I'd say something like 55-40%.

[dspNY]

The questions in this poll read like a push poll to me. That is strange because normally Siena doesn't engage in push poll behavior

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump at 37% is important to note.

When he starts polling in the low 40s or better like Zeldin did, maybe I'll buy a topline like this.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I could very well see Trump getting what he needs in NYC and the immediate suburbs. The problem for him is upstate, and the Hudson Valley. I could see Trump even cracking 40% downstate while only winning upstate by a few points. Trump nearly won Dutchess in 2016, yet Zeldin only carried it by 3.5 which is pretty weak. If upstate NY became like rural PA, then he would have a shot of flipping the state, but its not and one could argue its going in the opposite direction. Downstate is still too blue to deliver NY to Republicans if upstate is only in Lean R territory. 

[Skill and Chance]

I could very well see Trump getting what he needs in NYC and the immediate suburbs. The problem for him is upstate, and the Hudson Valley. I could see Trump even cracking 40% downstate while only winning upstate by a few points. Trump nearly won Dutchess in 2016, yet Zeldin only carried it by 3.5 which is pretty weak. If upstate NY became like rural PA, then he would have a shot of flipping the state, but its not and one could argue its going in the opposite direction. Downstate is still too blue to deliver NY to Republicans if upstate is only in Lean R territory. 

Yes, if anything, it seems Upstate is trending toward small town New England.  Could plausibly be what saves Dems in NY further down the line into the 2030's.  Not sure why.  I certainly wouldn't have predicted it. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump isn't gonna win NY game over

[lfromnj]

I could very well see Trump getting what he needs in NYC and the immediate suburbs. The problem for him is upstate, and the Hudson Valley. I could see Trump even cracking 40% downstate while only winning upstate by a few points. Trump nearly won Dutchess in 2016, yet Zeldin only carried it by 3.5 which is pretty weak. If upstate NY became like rural PA, then he would have a shot of flipping the state, but its not and one could argue its going in the opposite direction. Downstate is still too blue to deliver NY to Republicans if upstate is only in Lean R territory. 

Yes, if anything, it seems Upstate is trending toward small town New England.  Could plausibly be what saves Dems in NY further down the line into the 2030's.  Not sure why.  I certainly wouldn't have predicted it. 

One thing to note is that upstate NY has a lot of smaller liberal arts colleges that really aren't very worth it and will be first in line of the incoming demographic collapse in 2026(2008+18)

[Eraserhead]

My state is definitely swinging a bit to the right these days. It's sad to see but it's not like progressives here have much to be excited about lately (on the national or local level).