AL-02 runoff elections 4/16/24

[Minnesota Mike]

Results NYT (Free Link)

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/04/16/us/elections/results-alabama-us-house-2.html?ugrp=m&unlocked_article_code=1.k00.Mg4y.lpJgUo9_E5rh&smid=url-share

[Minnesota Mike]

Anybody with a firmer grasp of Alabama politics than I have have any insights? Shomari Figures (D) and Dick Brewbaker (R) led the first rounds comfortably and I would assume are the favorites. This is the new AA majority district and while it should be likely Dem I don't think it's impossible for a Republican to win. 

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Anybody with a firmer grasp of Alabama politics than I have have any insights? Shomari Figures (D) and Dick Brewbaker (R) led the first rounds comfortably and I would assume are the favorites. This is the new AA majority district and while it should be likely Dem I don't think it's impossible for a Republican to win. 

It's Biden +13 but voted for Ivey by 1.

[Minnesota Mike]

With 20% in looks like a close one on the Dem side. Anthony Daniels is up 1%. Not much in for the Republicans.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Figures and Dobson out to narrow but geographically spread leads.

[Minnesota Mike]

Figures has a small lead and should be good once Mobile comes in. We may be looking at an upset on the Republican side Dobson in the lead and  Brewbakers base of Montgomery almost all in.

[Minnesota Mike]

Turnout is atrocious. This is why I dislike runoffs, they rarely have as many voters as the first round.

[Minnesota Mike]

And after a big vote dump from Mobile we can call it for Figures and Dobson.

[Oryxslayer]

Good that AL02 will actually have a representative with ties to the communities inside the seat, given how many carpetbaggers there were.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Anybody with a firmer grasp of Alabama politics than I have have any insights? Shomari Figures (D) and Dick Brewbaker (R) led the first rounds comfortably and I would assume are the favorites. This is the new AA majority district and while it should be likely Dem I don't think it's impossible for a Republican to win. 

Figueres has a lot of history in the area (both his parents were state senators for the Mobile area), the other D was a state legislator from Huntsville, well outside the seat.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anybody with a firmer grasp of Alabama politics than I have have any insights? Shomari Figures (D) and Dick Brewbaker (R) led the first rounds comfortably and I would assume are the favorites. This is the new AA majority district and while it should be likely Dem I don't think it's impossible for a Republican to win. 

It's Biden +13 but voted for Ivey by 1.

This is largely due to poor black turnout in the midterms - Dems should be fine here in 2024, but I could see them struggling in lower turnout midterms.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Anybody with a firmer grasp of Alabama politics than I have have any insights? Shomari Figures (D) and Dick Brewbaker (R) led the first rounds comfortably and I would assume are the favorites. This is the new AA majority district and while it should be likely Dem I don't think it's impossible for a Republican to win. 

It's Biden +13 but voted for Ivey by 1.

This is largely due to poor black turnout in the midterms - Dems should be fine here in 2024, but I could see them struggling in lower turnout midterms.

Also Flowers was an anti-abortion candidate which suppressed turnout among democrats and the libertarian (first in a few cycles) got 3% which mostly came from democrats.


2022 was just abysmal recruitment and turnout cause there wasn’t really a reason to get people to the polls in such a safe state with no state legislature elections

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Anybody with a firmer grasp of Alabama politics than I have have any insights? Shomari Figures (D) and Dick Brewbaker (R) led the first rounds comfortably and I would assume are the favorites. This is the new AA majority district and while it should be likely Dem I don't think it's impossible for a Republican to win. 

It's Biden +13 but voted for Ivey by 1.

This is largely due to poor black turnout in the midterms - Dems should be fine here in 2024, but I could see them struggling in lower turnout midterms.

Also Flowers was an anti-abortion candidate which suppressed turnout among democrats and the libertarian (first in a few cycles) got 3% which mostly came from democrats.


2022 was just abysmal recruitment and turnout cause there wasn’t really a reason to get people to the polls in such a safe state with no state legislature elections

she wasn't, actually. Democrats for life rescinded their endorsement after the primary, she just said she applied for their endorsement and got it in the primary I think

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Anybody with a firmer grasp of Alabama politics than I have have any insights? Shomari Figures (D) and Dick Brewbaker (R) led the first rounds comfortably and I would assume are the favorites. This is the new AA majority district and while it should be likely Dem I don't think it's impossible for a Republican to win. 

It's Biden +13 but voted for Ivey by 1.

This is largely due to poor black turnout in the midterms - Dems should be fine here in 2024, but I could see them struggling in lower turnout midterms.

Also Flowers was an anti-abortion candidate which suppressed turnout among democrats and the libertarian (first in a few cycles) got 3% which mostly came from democrats.


2022 was just abysmal recruitment and turnout cause there wasn’t really a reason to get people to the polls in such a safe state with no state legislature elections

she wasn't, actually. Democrats for life rescinded their endorsement after the primary, she just said she applied for their endorsement and got it in the primary I think

She was pro-choice for all intents and purposes, but she didn't really celebrate the procedure in the way the base demands.

Flowers told AL.com in June that she believes abortion should be legal for safety reasons, though she did add that she would like to see counseling for patients considering pregnancy termination.

“We don’t need to ban abortion, but abortions need to be done safely,” Flowers said during the interview. “I’m not trying to sway them, I’m not trying to change their minds, but just giving them information and informed choices so that they can make a real choice.”

https://www.al.com/news/2022/08/anti-abortion-democrats-for-life-pulls-yolanda-flowers-endorsement-for-alabama-governor.html

[Oryxslayer]

When talking about the 2022 results in the Alabama black belt it would perhaps be best to look at all the results where African American candidates actually had changes of winning. This includes HDs, SDs, county officials, state boards, etc - and all that you know actually were contested rather than just abandoned by the GOP to African American Democrats. And big surprise (sarcasm) Dems did exactly what you would expect under the circumstances: holding, gaining or coming short in line with what one would expect based on racially polarized voting data.

The best example of this is rural HD-68 between Mobile and Montgomery. Its a BVAP seat slowly losing AA voters over time, a good chunk inside AL-02. The GOP let it stay this way in redistricting, cause they want another potential pickup. 52.8% Biden, 52.6% BVAP. Seen as a tight race in 2022.  The incumbent AA Dem in the end got 51.5% vs his White opponent.



TL:DR: Since this race is AA vs White, we de facto already know the outcome.