rank the likelihood of R senate seats

[David Hume]

Current 47+WV are safe R.
49 FL
50 TX
51 OH
52 MT
53 MI
54 NV
55 WI
56 PA
57 AZ
58 MD

[here2view]

49 FL — Safe R
50 TX — Lean R
51 MT — Tilt R
52 OH — Tilt R
53 NV — Lean D
54 MI — Lean D
55 AZ — Lean D
56 WI — Likely D
57 PA — Likely D
58 MD — Safe D

[David Hume]

49 FL — Safe R
50 TX — Lean R
51 MT — Tilt R
52 OH — Tilt R
53 NV — Lean D
54 MI — Lean D
55 AZ — Lean D
56 WI — Likely D
57 PA — Likely D
58 MD — Safe D

why NV before MI but AZ before WI?

[Zenobiyl]

49 FL Safe R
50 TX Likely R
51 OH Lean R
52 MT Tossup
53 MI Tilt D
54 NV Tossup
55 WI Lean D
56 PA Likely D
57 AZ Lean D
58 MD Safe D

[ClassicElectionEnthusiast]

Of this group; here's my guesses as to the likelihood.

Florida: Likely R (Rick Scott has been a fairly popular Senator {and before that as a Governor}; and between that and the increasingly strong Republican foothold in Florida)

Texas: Likely R (I think Ted Cruz probably performs better this time than when he barely held on to the seat in 2018)

Ohio: Tossup (could go either way, but this is definitely one the Democrats need to keep if they want to keep their Senate majority)

Montana: Tossup (between the tendency in Montana to split their tickets and Jon Tester's relatively moderate voting record I could see Tester hanging on to this seat)

Michigan: Lean D (the Republicans in Michigan have hurt themselves with the party infighting after 2022 and the issue of a residency controversy involving GOP front-runner Mike Rogers having been registered to vote in Florida in 2022 might be an issue {will be an issue, I believe, in the general election})

Nevada: Tilt D (once again, a divided GOP seems to be providing an opening; as the conservative/MAGA wing of the party seems to be split nearly 3 ways {Sam Brown being backed by Marsha Blackburn, Jeffrey Ross Gunter's endorsements include Matt Gaetz and Lee Zeldin, Jim Marchant being backed by Michael Flynn})

Wisconsin: Lean D (Tammy Baldwin's probably a safe pick to win this seat)

Pennsylvania: Likely D (Bob Casey Jr's been considered a slight favorite, and it remains to be seen whether the fact that we have a fairly united Republican party behind David McCormick helps him much)

Arizona: Lean D (with Kyrsten Sinema out of the race and Kari Lake stumbling over her abortion comments recently, at the moment I think Ruben Gallego has the edge)

Maryland: Likely D (I think in the likely event Larry Hogan becomes the nominee he makes this race somewhat competitive, but in a state where Charles "Mac" Mathias was the last Republican to win either of Maryland's Senate seats {in 1980} I think the Democrats should have little trouble keeping this open seat)

[S019]

49 OH-Likely R
50-FL-Likely R
51-MT-Lean R
52-TX-Lean R
53-NV-Tossup
54-AZ-Tossup
55-MI-Tossup
56-WI-Tossup
57-PA-Lean D
58-MD-Likely D
59-VA-Very Likely D

[David Hume]

49 OH-Likely R
50-FL-Likely R
51-MT-Lean R
52-TX-Lean R
53-NV-Tossup
54-AZ-Tossup
55-MI-Tossup
56-WI-Tossup
57-PA-Lean D
58-MD-Likely D
59-VA-Very Likely D

Way too bullish on the R side. How could AZ be tossup given Lake likely candidate?

[S019]

49 OH-Likely R
50-FL-Likely R
51-MT-Lean R
52-TX-Lean R
53-NV-Tossup
54-AZ-Tossup
55-MI-Tossup
56-WI-Tossup
57-PA-Lean D
58-MD-Likely D
59-VA-Very Likely D

Way too bullish on the R side. How could AZ be tossup given Lake likely candidate?

Arizona will probably be very close and I really don’t think Lake is especially weak. She’s not strong or even mediocre, but Republicans have a solid floor of like 47-48% in Arizona.

[Schiff for Senate]

49 FL — Safe R
50 TX — Lean R
51 MT — Tilt R
52 OH — Tilt R
53 NV — Lean D
54 MI — Lean D
55 AZ — Lean D
56 WI — Likely D
57 PA — Likely D
58 MD — Safe D

Sounds very fair. My biggest gripe is that TX should be Likely, not Lean, R. The margin won't be that big but in terms of outcome there's little doubt in my mind that Cruz wins another term.