National Popular Vote Interstate Compact

[°Leprechaun]

Green passed

Blue pending (would bring it to 270)

Red swing states but not pending

Grey states are GOP states and it is only pending in four of them

It is not likely to go into effect before Nov 5, but what do you think the chances are that it will go into effect after that? (and when would that be?)

[emailking]

Seems like it's been mostly stalled out for about 15 years. I don't think it will ever happen, though I would like to be wrong.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

I can't see it getting to 270 in the near future unless Trump wins. WI could possibly have a Dem trifecta soon now that maps are more favorable,

[Illiniwek]

*NaPoVoInterCo

iykyk

[hurricanehink]

Seems like it's been mostly stalled out for about 15 years. I don't think it will ever happen, though I would like to be wrong.

Maine just approved it today, Minnesota approved it last year, and four states approved it in 2019, that’s real progress! It’ll be tricky getting to 270, since it’s at 209 now, but progress is progress.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It will be on the ballot at Nevada this November, IIRC.
Next goal should be Virginia if Democrats get the trifecta next year. Michigan and Arizona (if Ds pick up the legislature) are trickier because being a swing state is very good for the local economy every four years.

[emailking]

Seems like it's been mostly stalled out for about 15 years. I don't think it will ever happen, though I would like to be wrong.

Maine just approved it today, Minnesota approved it last year, and four states approved it in 2019, that’s real progress! It’ll be tricky getting to 270, since it’s at 209 now, but progress is progress.

How would Maine's contribution to the popular vote be calculated exactly? Or would they drop IRV if this goes into effect?

[Storr]

If a candidate wins the electoral vote while losing the popular vote this year, the probability it passes increases greatly. After a 2026 Trump midterm New Hampshire, Nevada, Arizona, and Pennsylvania could all have Democratic trifectas. Georgia and Wisconsin could as well, but the latter depends on redistricting.

I'm terrible at predictions, but I'll guess which states will bring us to 270 (not in order of adoption): Virginia, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Georgia = 274 EV

[Joe Republic]

It will be on the ballot at Nevada this November, IIRC.

No, it has to be passed (unamended) by the legislature again in 2025, and would then go on the ballot in 2026.  Lombardo has no veto option.

[TechbroMBA]

How legal is it even?

I also somehow doubt blue states will send their votes to Republicans if voter realignment means the PV/EV efficiency switches between parties.

[emailking]

That's been debated quite a bit over the years in the election process section. I don't think there's a clear consensus. It seems it is legal but there may be trouble enforcing it and there are possibly legitimate grounds for challenges in some instances.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How legal is it even?

Article I, Section 10, Clause 3:

No State shall, without the Consent of Congress, lay any Duty of Tonnage, keep Troops, or Ships of War in time of Peace, enter into any Agreement or Compact with another State, or with a foreign Power, or engage in War, unless actually invaded, or in such imminent Danger as will not admit of delay.

What this means is in addition to hitting 270 Congress would need to approve it. If Congress did though I don't see any problems. Plenty of interstate compacts already exist.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

How legal is it even?

Article I, Section 10, Clause 3:

No State shall, without the Consent of Congress, lay any Duty of Tonnage, keep Troops, or Ships of War in time of Peace, enter into any Agreement or Compact with another State, or with a foreign Power, or engage in War, unless actually invaded, or in such imminent Danger as will not admit of delay.

What this means is in addition to hitting 270 Congress would need to approve it. If Congress did though I don't see any problems. Plenty of interstate compacts already exist.

Is it just a simple majority? If a Dem congress approves it could an R one undo that?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Ironically Maine still has those 2 electors for each of its congressional districts.

[emailking]

That would just go away my guess, but my question is what they do take to be the "popular vote" when they're doing IRV, unless they're just going to drop that.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Democrats take over the legislature in Arizona, they might be a contender to join.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How legal is it even?

Article I, Section 10, Clause 3:

No State shall, without the Consent of Congress, lay any Duty of Tonnage, keep Troops, or Ships of War in time of Peace, enter into any Agreement or Compact with another State, or with a foreign Power, or engage in War, unless actually invaded, or in such imminent Danger as will not admit of delay.

What this means is in addition to hitting 270 Congress would need to approve it. If Congress did though I don't see any problems. Plenty of interstate compacts already exist.

Is it just a simple majority? If a Dem congress approves it could an R one undo that?

Not sure if there's any precedent here, the article doesn't state if it can be repealed and I don't know if any such compact has been attempted to by Congress.

[The Mikado]

There's a surprisingly realistic path for 2028 if Dems flip the PA Senate in either 2024 or 2026.

No one will take it seriously until it actually happens. It'll go from a sleeper pie in the sky fantasy to enacted basically overnight.

(The path is MI this year, AZ in 2025 if Dems take trifecta in 2024, PA in 2025 if Dems take trifecta in 2024, VA in 2026 if Dems take gov in 2025, NV in a 2026 ballot referendum)

It requires an absurd amount of luck and I don't think this is LIKELY, but people who don't see this as possible are missing out.

[emailking]

I imagine if we get to the point that a state is considering it and it would push the total over 270 that it would get a lot of attention and there would be a lot of pressure on the lawmakers from both sides.

[Minnesota Mike]

How legal is it even?

That's the $10,000 question. I'm no lawyer but my guess is the current Supreme Court will find a reason to find it unconstitutional. Courts have a way of starting with their prefered political outcome and working backwards from there to find a legal reasoning for that outcome.

FWIW I would be all in favor of a constitutional amendment implementing presidential elections by popular vote but this attempt to politically MacGyver a work around makes me real nervous. I'm not smart enough to foresee the unintended consequences but my gut tells there will be lots of them.

[BlueSwan]

I'm no lawyer but my guess is the current Supreme Court will find a reason to find it unconstitutional. Courts have a way of starting with their prefered political outcome and working backwards from there to find a legal reasoning for that outcome.

Indeed. But in all fairness, that is how most people operate in reality.

[brucejoel99]

How legal is it even?

Article I, Section 10, Clause 3:

No State shall, without the Consent of Congress, lay any Duty of Tonnage, keep Troops, or Ships of War in time of Peace, enter into any Agreement or Compact with another State, or with a foreign Power, or engage in War, unless actually invaded, or in such imminent Danger as will not admit of delay.

What this means is in addition to hitting 270 Congress would need to approve it. If Congress did though I don't see any problems. Plenty of interstate compacts already exist.

Is it just a simple majority? If a Dem congress approves it could an R one undo that?

Not sure if there's any precedent here, the article doesn't state if it can be repealed and I don't know if any such compact has been attempted to by Congress.

Current precedential situation is pretty much this:

Yes, obviously [the NPVIC is constitutional]. The Electors Clause very clearly permits the states to award their EVs "in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct," & under the Virginia v. Tennessee precedent, Congress' approval of the compact wouldn't even be required because awarding EVs is a power that's expressly & exclusively granted solely to the states under the Constitution (but of course, that still won't stop Republicans with ulterior motives & incentive to block the NPVIC from arguing in bad-faith that Congress' approval is required anyway).

[SWE]

How legal is it even?

I also somehow doubt blue states will send their votes to Republicans if voter realignment means the PV/EV efficiency switches between parties.

PV/EV efficiency switches between the parties randomly from election to election. Half of the signatories to the pact joined during the Obama administration, when the Democrats had a massive EC advantage and the idea of a Republican winning the EC without the PV was nearly impossible to imagine

[emailking]

Current precedential situation is pretty much this:

Yes, obviously [the NPVIC is constitutional]. The Electors Clause very clearly permits the states to award their EVs "in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct," & under the Virginia v. Tennessee precedent, Congress' approval of the compact wouldn't even be required because awarding EVs is a power that's expressly & exclusively granted solely to the states under the Constitution (but of course, that still won't stop Republicans with ulterior motives & incentive to block the NPVIC from arguing in bad-faith that Congress' approval is required anyway).

I think the problem is that the same clause could allow a state to break out of the pact inside of the 6 month window in which (under the pact) they're supposed to be locked into selecting electors for the popular vote winner. If all the sates in the pact just agree, and follow through, on voting for the popular vote winner, then yeah there's probably nothing the other states or the popular vote loser can do about it.

[Ferguson97]

I imagine if we get to the point that a state is considering it and it would push the total over 270 that it would get a lot of attention and there would be a lot of pressure on the lawmakers from both sides.

Per the timeline that The Mikado posted, the Nevada 2026 referendum would be the one to push it over the edge... wow, that's going to probably be the single most watched result of the midterms!