AZ 2024: By how many points will Kari Lake underperform Donald Trump?

[TDAS04]

?

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think she loses by about five, and Trump loses by about two. So, my answer is three or so.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It won't be that much honestly. The two are pretty much synced at this point, although Trump has noticeably better odds. I think she is operating at around maybe 1 or 2 points behind him. Remember in 2020 Kelly was supposed to outperform Biden by a lot but only won by 2 more than the Presidential race.

[xavier110]

It won't be that much honestly. The two are pretty much synced at this point, although Trump has noticeably better odds. I think she is operating at around maybe 1 or 2 points behind him. Remember in 2020 Kelly was supposed to outperform Biden by a lot but only won by 2 more than the Presidential race.

Yup. I picked 1-2 points.

[Malarkey Decider]

It won't be that much honestly. The two are pretty much synced at this point, although Trump has noticeably better odds. I think she is operating at around maybe 1 or 2 points behind him. Remember in 2020 Kelly was supposed to outperform Biden by a lot but only won by 2 more than the Presidential race.

Except I reckon there were a decent amount of Biden - McSally voters, whereas I don't think there are going to be many Biden-Lake Voters.

[TML]

It won't be that much honestly. The two are pretty much synced at this point, although Trump has noticeably better odds. I think she is operating at around maybe 1 or 2 points behind him. Remember in 2020 Kelly was supposed to outperform Biden by a lot but only won by 2 more than the Presidential race.

Except I reckon there were a decent amount of Biden - McSally voters, whereas I don't think there are going to be many Biden-Lake Voters.

2020 exit polls showed that about 2% of Biden voters also voted for McSally. Are you saying that Biden-Lake voters will comprise a share even smaller than that?