Israel hits back against Iran (bombs Isfahan, home to nuclear facilities)

[Meclazine for Israel]

Launch Sites Towards Israel

https://www.instagram.com/p/C5wdKJ9sCDV/

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

An important point:

"Iran launched 185 drones, 110 ballistic missiles and 36 cruise missiles at Israel.

The lack of significant damage isn’t because Iran didn’t try, but a testament to Israeli and U.S. air defense and air power."

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1779421078344941749

Power-mad and insane as he may be, I strongly doubt Bibi feels this will be sufficient provocation to enter into a protracted military conflict that Iran is calculating to pariah Israel even further, particularly when Iran will say this was not unprovoked but a response to the embassy attack.

Iran vs. Israel is almost tailor-made to come across as a Kissingerian "it's a shame they can't both lose" conflict to much of the world, especially Sunni countries and the parts of Latin America and Africa where most people hate Israel but aren't particularly invested in either Islam or "resistance at all costs and in any form to the turboevil West" narratives.

These places are increasingly rare -- in fact, I think they are trending towards non-existence. Outside of Chile, for example, where in Latin America is Israel clearly unpopular? (Sometimes you have left wing leaders, ie Petro or Lula, who don't like Israel -- but in both Colombia and Brazil it is clear that the majority of people do).

For example (obviously many factors involved): https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/lula-approval-dips-brazil-after-israel-gaza-remarks-2024-03-06/

Quaest's first poll this year showed that approval of Lula dipped especially among evangelical Christian voters, already a stronghold of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, after his remarks about the war in Gaza.
Lula denounced Israel's military action in the enclave as a "genocide" against Palestinians and compared it to "when Hitler decided to kill the Jews."

Lula's approval among evangelical Christians - who make up nearly a third of Brazil's population - dropped to 35% from 41%, while their disapproval of his government jumped to 62% from 56%.
"The reaction to Lula's remarks about Gaza seems to give a good clue to explain it," Quaest pollster Felipe Nunes said. "About 60% of Brazilians believe he exaggerated in his comparison, but among evangelicals that number is even bigger: 69%."

"The remarks were so poorly received that the president did not obtain majority support even within his own political base," Nunes noted.

Point taken, although I'll observe that you do not need to be fond of Israel to have serious problems with what Lula said.

[HisGrace]

Israel really needs to take the W and not escalate further here. There's no benefit from going to war with Iran, their focus should be on destroying Hamas and a war with Iran would cause many orders of magnitude more destruction.

[Sir Mohamed]

Israel is in tricky situation here. They can either respond and risk a further escalation, or not respond and may look weak (although I wouldn't argue they're weak, taking down 99% of drones is massive). I think going forward it might be best to wait a few weeks until tensions have eased and consider some retaliatory action below the use of force like cyber attacks etc.

From a strategic standpoint, Iran overall has lost. Before the attack, Israel was increasingly isolated among their Western partners for the handling of Gaza, now the entire West has again expressed solidarity with Israel. Furthermore, Iran's aggresive course put Arab players in the region in alarm. Iran is even more isolated in the Muslim world than it was before.

At least the damages were limited and just few were injured. Still wish there was nobody hurt, but it would have been much worse.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes the West has shown its solidarity with Israel, and to that degree it is indeed a loss for Iran.

But many will hope they extracted a price for doing so - not only no to any major retaliation, but also perhaps moves to de-escalate the parlous situation in Gaza.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Wait so Iran launched 300 missiles and drones, got 99% of them shot down, and killed a Bedouin kid.

How is this possibly a massive Iranian victory?

[GeneralMacArthur]

Wait so Iran launched 300 missiles and drones, got 99% of them shot down, and killed a Bedouin kid.

How is this possibly a massive Iranian victory?

Well they hit enough stuff with that 1% to plausibly claim that they did serious damage to Israel.

It's not a massive Iranian victory but they're going to claim it was.  Which is good because it gives them an excuse to avoid escalating further without looking cucked by Israel.

Of course, if Iran continues to wage war on Israel through proxy groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah and the Houthis, we're inevitably going to find ourselves in the same situation once again.

Dummies on the internet may buy the Iranian argument that Israel "started" this by killing Iran's military leaders, but Israel obviously feels that it is at war with Iran, and that Iranian military figures are legitimate targets.  Iran is the aggressor in this conflict.  Israel doesn't have a shadow army in Azerbaijan waging an endless war with Iran.

[Hnv1]

Wait so Iran launched 300 missiles and drones, got 99% of them shot down, and killed a Bedouin kid.

How is this possibly a massive Iranian victory?

The 99% figure is inaccurate. At least 9 ballistic missiles landed in two IAF sites in southern Israel, and some missiles landed in the Golan Heights.

[HisGrace]

Israel is in tricky situation here. They can either respond and risk a further escalation, or not respond and may look weak (although I wouldn't argue they're weak, taking down 99% of drones is massive). I think going forward it might be best to wait a few weeks until tensions have eased and consider some retaliatory action below the use of force like cyber attacks etc.

From a strategic standpoint, Iran overall has lost. Before the attack, Israel was increasingly isolated among their Western partners for the handling of Gaza, now the entire West has again expressed solidarity with Israel. Furthermore, Iran's aggresive course put Arab players in the region in alarm. Iran is even more isolated in the Muslim world than it was before.

At least the damages were limited and just few were injured. Still wish there was nobody hurt, but it would have been much worse.

Don't really see how they "look weak" here. Their attack was far more strategically consequential than Iran's which was just a token face saving attack so they wouldn't have to deal with domestic riots with people mad they were getting pushed around by Israel. The Iranian government aren't idiots (as opposed to the illiterate cavemen in Hamas), they knew 99% of the missiles would get shot down and no significant damage would be done, it was just for show. As other have noted Iran has the capacity to have fired far more missiles than they did and do real damage, they just chose not to. Iran doesn't actually want a full scale war with Israel.

Pretty much everyone sees it this way except for the worst extremists on both sides: dirtbag leftists who were cheering for the bombings like it was sports and hardcore Zionists looking for an excuse to take down Iran.

[Meclazine for Israel]

The Shadow War

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-15/iran-israel-shadow-war-becomes-direct-attack-analysis/103707566

Soon to be the main event?

[President Johnson]

Wait so Iran launched 300 missiles and drones, got 99% of them shot down, and killed a Bedouin kid.

How is this possibly a massive Iranian victory?

It's as much of a victory as the current US economy is in recession.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Despite being pretty hawkish overall , I will say that I am extremely unsure of what the reaction by Israel should be . While in theory they should strike back , the consequences of doing so may be worse than not doing so . Even if the US directly gets involved and helps Israel disable Iran’s offensive capabilities, Iran still has the capabilities of causing far more damage to Israel than even 10/7 in the time before their offensive capabilities are disabled .

This doesn’t even also take into account the fact that Syria and Lebanon could also declare war on Israel then , which would be utterly disastrous for Israel and also would set of the worst Middle East war since WW1 as Jordan and Egypt then get dragged in to. In fact the Situation in the Middle East right now looks eerily similar to Europe in the year leading up to the Summer of 1914 where one event can lead to an entire region being at war .

At the same time , Israel not doing something can make them look weak and vulnerable for more attacks which also would be disastrous. So all I can hope is any decision that is made , is made cautiously with all potential consequences assessed before a Decision is made

[ꙮ]

Saw some clickbait Twitter accounts claiming that an Israeli counter-strike is coming. Anything to it, or just nonsense?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Saw some clickbait Twitter accounts claiming that an Israeli counter-strike is coming. Anything to it, or just nonsense?

I'm wondering this as well.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Saw some clickbait Twitter accounts claiming that an Israeli counter-strike is coming. Anything to it, or just nonsense?

I mean “counter strike” can mean a lot of things . Striking Iran directly would be very different than striking one of their militias .

[Meclazine for Israel]

[CumbrianLefty]

Saw some clickbait Twitter accounts claiming that an Israeli counter-strike is coming. Anything to it, or just nonsense?

I mean “counter strike” can mean a lot of things . Striking Iran directly would be very different than striking one of their militias .

Israel will surely do something, I would imagine.

But hopefully all the calls for restraint will have some effect.

[Illiniwek]

https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1780283035872616495

We are headed for trouble.

[dead0man]

the drone factory and probably a missile production facility or three are getting blow'd up.  At least.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

So to be clear, if Netanyahu completely defies Biden and strikes Iran will Biden still try to intercept Iranian missiles fired in retaliation?

[Horus]

So to be clear, if Netanyahu completely defies Biden and strikes Iran will Biden still try to intercept Iranian missiles fired in retaliation?

I certainly wouldn't, but like most boomers, Biden holds Israel to a far lower standard than he does the rest of the world. I think he will cave to Likud, this has been the pattern so far.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

So to be clear, if Netanyahu completely defies Biden and strikes Iran will Biden still try to intercept Iranian missiles fired in retaliation?

I certainly wouldn't, but like most boomers, Biden holds Israel to a far lower standard than he does the rest of the world. I think he will cave to Likud, this has been the pattern so far.

Put simply, Iran can't destroy Israel but Israel can destroy Iran. However, it will only do that if it is hit hard enough to extract a horrific response, similar to what Hamas caused. Therefore, yes, it is in everyone's interest that Biden will continue to deter Iranian attacks against our ally, and thank G-d we have a smart and practical president instead of the alternatives.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

So to be clear, if Netanyahu completely defies Biden and strikes Iran will Biden still try to intercept Iranian missiles fired in retaliation?

I certainly wouldn't, but like most boomers, Biden holds Israel to a far lower standard than he does the rest of the world. I think he will cave to Likud, this has been the pattern so far.

Put simply, Iran can't destroy Israel but Israel can destroy Iran. However, it will only do that if it is hit hard enough to extract a horrific response, similar to what Hamas caused. Therefore, yes, it is in everyone's interest that Biden will continue to deter Iranian attacks against our ally, and thank G-d we have a smart and practical president instead of the alternatives.

It isn't at all obvious that Iran can't destroy Israel (particularly if Israel didn't have American backup) but regardless you could just as easily say that Ukraine can't destroy Russia but Russia can destroy Ukraine, do you apply this same logic there?

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

So to be clear, if Netanyahu completely defies Biden and strikes Iran will Biden still try to intercept Iranian missiles fired in retaliation?

I certainly wouldn't, but like most boomers, Biden holds Israel to a far lower standard than he does the rest of the world. I think he will cave to Likud, this has been the pattern so far.

Put simply, Iran can't destroy Israel but Israel can destroy Iran. However, it will only do that if it is hit hard enough to extract a horrific response, similar to what Hamas caused. Therefore, yes, it is in everyone's interest that Biden will continue to deter Iranian attacks against our ally, and thank G-d we have a smart and practical president instead of the alternatives.

It isn't at all obvious that Iran can't destroy Israel (particularly if Israel didn't have American backup) but regardless you could just as easily say that Ukraine can't destroy Russia but Russia can destroy Ukraine, do you apply this same logic there?

If Iran was in the position to destroy Israel, it would cease to be able to within minutes, unless you're alleging they have secret nukes already.

As for Russia-Ukraine, we should be aiding our allies in both Ukraine and Israel against their barbarian attackers.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

So to be clear, if Netanyahu completely defies Biden and strikes Iran will Biden still try to intercept Iranian missiles fired in retaliation?

I certainly wouldn't, but like most boomers, Biden holds Israel to a far lower standard than he does the rest of the world. I think he will cave to Likud, this has been the pattern so far.

Put simply, Iran can't destroy Israel but Israel can destroy Iran. However, it will only do that if it is hit hard enough to extract a horrific response, similar to what Hamas caused. Therefore, yes, it is in everyone's interest that Biden will continue to deter Iranian attacks against our ally, and thank G-d we have a smart and practical president instead of the alternatives.

It isn't at all obvious that Iran can't destroy Israel (particularly if Israel didn't have American backup) but regardless you could just as easily say that Ukraine can't destroy Russia but Russia can destroy Ukraine, do you apply this same logic there?

If Iran was in the position to destroy Israel, it would cease to be able to within minutes, unless you're alleging they have secret nukes already.

As for Russia-Ukraine, we should be aiding our allies in both Ukraine and Israel against their barbarian attackers.

If Israel launched a preemptive nuclear first strike then it would almost certainly be subsequently hit whether by the Russians, the Chinese, the Pakistanis or maybe even the Iranians themselves. That you're willing to even try to justify something like that is psychotic but it's also irrelevant because Netanyahu would retire to Miami to live as a wealthy exile long before he'd do anything that crazy.

Short of that, in a conventional war along the lines of Russia-Ukraine it seems pretty obvious that Israel would get the worst of it. The only reason Netanyahu can afford to be reckless is because he has American protection regardless of how aggressive he is or how blatantly he defies American policy.