Can you see a situation where Colorado votes to the left of California?

[Cyrusman]

Can you envision any scenario in the next 5-10 years where Colorado starts voting to the left of California?

[DS0816]

Can you envision any scenario in the next 5-10 years where Colorado starts voting to the left of California?

Imagine it here in 2024 … due to the map and where states would rank. (A U.S. Popular Vote of R+12 would definitely do it. A Republican margin of +9 could be enough.)


For the 2024 Democrats, carrying just 10 states, consider the following:

— District of Columbia (cumulative 03 electoral votes)
01. Vermont (cum. 06)
02. Massachusetts (cum. 17)
03. Maryland (cum. 27)
04. Hawaii (cum. 31)
05. Rhode Island (cum. 35)
06. Connecticut (cum. 42)
07. Delaware (cum. 45)
08. New York (cum. 74)
09. Colorado (cum. 84)
10. Virginia (cum. 97)


For those which flipped to the 2024 Republicans:

— Maine’s 1st Congressional District
11 (40). California
12 (39). Washington
13 (38). New Jersey
14 (37). Illinois
15 (36). Oregon
— Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District
16 (35). Maine (state)
17 (34). New Mexico
18 (33). Minnesota
19 (32). New Hampshire


Commonly predicted pickups if, with Election 2024, we get a party switch for U.S. President:

20 (31). Nevada
21 (30). Pennsylvania
22 (29). Michigan
23 (28). Wisconsin
24 (27). Arizona
25 (26). Georgia

[DS0816]

What I meant to also note is this: For a Democrat to do better in Colorado than in California could be that the former becomes one of the party’s ten best states in rank; the latter slips out.

A party’s prevailing nominee with 40 states would carry at least nine of the U.S.’s Top 10 most-populous states. So that is why I posted that scenario (minus a map).

[Progressive Pessimist]

Not yet, but maybe in the future.

Polis did almost as well as Newsom in 2022 after all.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Not within the next 10 years, no.

[wnwnwn]

Asian americans becoming a R leaning group, to the point there is is an asian republican US House seat in the Bay Área.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Asian americans becoming a R leaning group, to the point there is is an asian republican US House seat in the Bay Área.

Exactly, neither of those are happening in the timeframe OP gave. The R House seat in the Bay Area probably would’ve happened in the Sun and Moon timeline though.

[Vice President Christian Man]

The most realistic scenario is if Denver becomes San Francisco in terms of its political leaning or Latinos shift rapidly to the right. Both aren't particularly likely in the short term, but the last is possible if Biden's approval rating collapses.