Is another Clinton Presidency inevitable?

[Lincoln Republican]

Hillary Clinton currently leads the polls both in the choice for the Democratic nomination and in the choice for President, even now ahead of Giuliani.

Given the current miserable state of the Republicans, is another Clinton Presidency inevitable?

Please discuss.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I'd like to think the country is smart enough not to do that, once Fred gets the name recog, game over

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think the GOP will be smart enough to stay away from the Clinton cheat and lies but they will bring up the travelgate and questionable fundraisers that the Clintons have had in the past they might be able to take advantage.

[Likely Voter]

not inevitable, but the most likely event is her.

intrade gives her a 3/1 chance to win it all right now...Obama, Guilliani and Thompson all have 6/1 or 7/1 odds....the rest are all total longshots for now

If Gore comes in or if Thompson catches fire things can change pretty quickly though

[Boris]

It is as inevitable as George H.W. Bush's re-election was at this time in 1991.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It is as inevitable as George H.W. Bush's re-election was at this time in 1991.

So a certainty, right?

[WalterMitty]

hillary is too much of a 'boogeyman'  or boogeywoman.

the republicans have been successful in branding her as some crazy, pinko, lefty.  it's absurd, really, given her moderate ideological beliefs.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Or as inevitable as Howard Dean being the nominee

[Defarge]

No, most Democrats know that she's unelectable.  Her lead will erode in time.

[Padfoot]

If Bloomberg admits he is going to run then I would say it is inevitable.

[D.R.M.]

Obama is catching up, but still behind Clinton. So I'm not sure. Nothing is really inevitable until election day. Who knows, maybe some dirt on Clinton will emerge (new dirt, not old dirt like her being on Walmart's Board of Directors or her inital support for the Iraq War and Patriot Act). 

[Tender Branson]

Hillary Clinton currently leads the polls both in the choice for the Democratic nomination and in the choice for President, even now ahead of Giuliani.

Given the current miserable state of the Republicans, is another Clinton Presidency inevitable?

Please discuss.

Still not necessarily. But it´s more and more looking like it. Currently it looks like Hillary Clinton is holding every state John Kerry took in 2004, with the exception of WA, CT and NJ (which will probably be a lot friendlier to her if Giuliani´s image begins to falter) and PA (already starts to drift into Clinton land) and OH (we´ll see) She then has a good chance to pick up IA and NM, in which she currently leads by 5-10% (SUSA polls).

But first she has to take the primary hurdle and Obama is positioned well in IA and SC and making gains/keeps steady in NH and FL.

I´d say against Romney/McCain and Thompson she should have a good chance in the end. The only problem may be Giuliani.

[agcatter]

Inevitable?

Of course not.

[Sam Spade]

Not really.  Very few things are inevitable.

Here's where I see things standing right now (recognizing massive changes may still occur)

She is the heavy favorite to win nomination (65%-70%).  Fundraising is important, but nowhere as important as actual voting.  And exactly who is going to break into the Hillary Democratic base of lower-income women voters?

In the general, she has to be considered the favorite over the Republican challenger, except for Rudy (who I give a slight edge).  Romney is a sure general election loser against anyone, and F. Thompson doesn't strike me as "having it", though he would still have a better chance than Romney.  McCain is a dead campaign.

If Bloomberg enters, you can lower the odds for Thompson, and I suspect the odds for Rudy would shift slightly in Hillary's favor.

[Keystone Phil]

hillary is too much of a 'boogeyman'  or boogeywoman.

the republicans have been successful in branding her as some crazy, pinko, lefty.  it's absurd, really, given her moderate ideological beliefs.

You think she's really moderate, Walter? The woman has simply crafted her message for next year so that she seems acceptable.

[WalterMitty]

hillary is too much of a 'boogeyman'  or boogeywoman.

the republicans have been successful in branding her as some crazy, pinko, lefty.  it's absurd, really, given her moderate ideological beliefs.

You think she's really moderate, Walter? The woman has simply crafted her message for next year so that she seems acceptable.

yes i believe she is just as moderate as her husband.

[Sam Spade]

hillary is too much of a 'boogeyman'  or boogeywoman.

the republicans have been successful in branding her as some crazy, pinko, lefty.  it's absurd, really, given her moderate ideological beliefs.

You think she's really moderate, Walter? The woman has simply crafted her message for next year so that she seems acceptable.

yes i believe she is just as moderate as her husband.

Bill Clinton historically ran to the left, got his ass kicked, then ran to the center/center-right and was successful.  This happened in Arkansas and happened in the White House.

The Clintons have always learned from their lessons, so I'm kind of interested to see whether she starts off that way.

FYI, from her philosophical viewpoints, Hillary Clinton is anything but moderate.  However, both Hillary and her husband care more about keeping power than ideological rigidity, so triangulating the left will probably be the end result.

[SPC]

It is as inevitable as George H.W. Bush's re-election was at this time in 1991.

So a certainty, right?

It's funny. I was just listening to Parliament of Whores by P.J. O'rourke. In case you don't know, it was published in 1991. It said the following:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

My dad said, "He must have been cuaght in bed with that businessman."

[TomC]

Yes, the fix is already in.

[classical liberal]

I hate to have to say it, but do you really think that PA or WI, neither of which has ever elected a woman as governor or as a senator, are likely to break tradition and elect a woman as president?  Furthermore, do you really think that without PA ad WI, a democrat can actually carry the electoral college?

Addendum:

Also, w.r.t polls, I advise people to remember the discrepancy btw. polls and vote tallies when Gov. Wilder was elected in VA.  As much as people like to that say they will vote for someone in the process of shattering a glass ceiling, the reality is rarely as supportive.

[TomC]

I hate to have to say it, but do you really think that PA or WI, neither of which has ever elected a woman as governor or as a senator, are likely to break tradition and elect a woman as president?  Furthermore, do you really think that without PA ad WI, a democrat can actually carry the electoral college?

Past performance is no indicator of future returns.

Seriously, you think Texas is open minded enough to elect a woman Gov and Senator but not Wisc or Penn? The electorate, a majority female, is not as closed minded as you suggest. You should get out more.

[auburntiger]

Hillary Clinton currently leads the polls both in the choice for the Democratic nomination and in the choice for President, even now ahead of Giuliani.

Given the current miserable state of the Republicans, is another Clinton Presidency inevitable?

Please discuss.

Still not necessarily. But it´s more and more looking like it. Currently it looks like Hillary Clinton is holding every state John Kerry took in 2004, with the exception of WA, CT and NJ (which will probably be a lot friendlier to her if Giuliani´s image begins to falter) and PA (already starts to drift into Clinton land) and OH (we´ll see) She then has a good chance to pick up IA and NM, in which she currently leads by 5-10% (SUSA polls).

But first she has to take the primary hurdle and Obama is positioned well in IA and SC and making gains/keeps steady in NH and FL.

I´d say against Romney/McCain and Thompson she should have a good chance in the end. The only problem may be Giuliani.

Why would she not already be leading in Washington state?? as it is right now, both senators are Democrats and women, and their governor is also a Democrat and a woman - seems like she should carry WA very easily in the general...I don't think any Republican could win there, even Dukakis carried WA.

BTW, WA is a beautiful state. I just got back from a week long trip in Seattle, food is great!

[Tender Branson]

Hillary Clinton currently leads the polls both in the choice for the Democratic nomination and in the choice for President, even now ahead of Giuliani.

Given the current miserable state of the Republicans, is another Clinton Presidency inevitable?

Please discuss.

Still not necessarily. But it´s more and more looking like it. Currently it looks like Hillary Clinton is holding every state John Kerry took in 2004, with the exception of WA, CT and NJ (which will probably be a lot friendlier to her if Giuliani´s image begins to falter) and PA (already starts to drift into Clinton land) and OH (we´ll see) She then has a good chance to pick up IA and NM, in which she currently leads by 5-10% (SUSA polls).

But first she has to take the primary hurdle and Obama is positioned well in IA and SC and making gains/keeps steady in NH and FL.

I´d say against Romney/McCain and Thompson she should have a good chance in the end. The only problem may be Giuliani.

Why would she not already be leading in Washington state?? as it is right now, both senators are Democrats and women, and their governor is also a Democrat and a woman - seems like she should carry WA very easily in the general...I don't think any Republican could win there, even Dukakis carried WA.

BTW, WA is a beautiful state. I just got back from a week long trip in Seattle, food is great!

Sure you are right about Washington. The fact that I thought WA state "may be competetive" was due to a June poll by SurveyUSA, which showed Giuliani ahead of Clinton by 3% in WA state. This was very likely to be an outlier and I´m anticipating Clinton to win this state for the reasons you have mentioned above. The only Republican who can come "close" to Clinton in this state is Giuliani. Clinton would destroy any other Republican in WA state (Thompson, Romney, McCain).

Also, I got a leaked preview of the WA state July poll of SurveyUSA, and Hillary Clinton has again taken the lead over the Giuliani in that state, backing my thought that the June poll was indeed an outlier:



http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=2f69f9ed-4d23-4943-bca9-81e51dbeab45

[StateBoiler]

I think she's the most likely to become President right now even if I don't want her to be.

[auburntiger]

Hillary Clinton currently leads the polls both in the choice for the Democratic nomination and in the choice for President, even now ahead of Giuliani.

Given the current miserable state of the Republicans, is another Clinton Presidency inevitable?

Please discuss.

Still not necessarily. But it´s more and more looking like it. Currently it looks like Hillary Clinton is holding every state John Kerry took in 2004, with the exception of WA, CT and NJ (which will probably be a lot friendlier to her if Giuliani´s image begins to falter) and PA (already starts to drift into Clinton land) and OH (we´ll see) She then has a good chance to pick up IA and NM, in which she currently leads by 5-10% (SUSA polls).

But first she has to take the primary hurdle and Obama is positioned well in IA and SC and making gains/keeps steady in NH and FL.

I´d say against Romney/McCain and Thompson she should have a good chance in the end. The only problem may be Giuliani.

Why would she not already be leading in Washington state?? as it is right now, both senators are Democrats and women, and their governor is also a Democrat and a woman - seems like she should carry WA very easily in the general...I don't think any Republican could win there, even Dukakis carried WA.

BTW, WA is a beautiful state. I just got back from a week long trip in Seattle, food is great!

Sure you are right about Washington. The fact that I thought WA state "may be competetive" was due to a June poll by SurveyUSA, which showed Giuliani ahead of Clinton by 3% in WA state. This was very likely to be an outlier and I´m anticipating Clinton to win this state for the reasons you have mentioned above. The only Republican who can come "close" to Clinton in this state is Giuliani. Clinton would destroy any other Republican in WA state (Thompson, Romney, McCain).

Also, I got a leaked preview of the WA state July poll of SurveyUSA, and Hillary Clinton has again taken the lead over the Giuliani in that state, backing my thought that the June poll was indeed an outlier:



http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=2f69f9ed-4d23-4943-bca9-81e51dbeab45

yeah, no surprise there...I think WA should be "Strong Democrat" on the 2008 Prediction Page. It was more Democrat than NJ, and Bush never led in any WA poll, not even when he was at his zenith, so yeah WA is solid blue as far as I'm concerned