Who will be the Steve King/Madison Cawthorn of 2024?

[Tekken_Guy]

Who will be the Steve King/Madison Cawthorn of 2024? That is an incumbent Republican congressman who’s very far-right and seen as unfit for office, who loses their primary nomination to a more normal GOP candidate.

[Schiff for Senate]

Madison Cawthorn wasn't "far right" (that label is more apt for MTG, Boebart, etc) so much as he was an absolute and utter embarrassment because of what a goofball he was.

Cawthorn was the successor of Steve Watkins (who had a much lower profile) and the predecessor to George Santos (who's had an even higher profile).

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I could see MTG be thrown out. She isn't some super strong candidate in her district, and an angry GOP majority could recruit someone to oust her.

[Tekken_Guy]

I could see MTG be thrown out. She isn't some super strong candidate in her district, and an angry GOP majority could recruit someone to oust her.

Not this year unfortunately, as she’s unopposed in her primary. 2026 is a different story, especially if Kemp gets involved.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Boebert?

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Boebert?

maybe but that's kinda cheating with her moving to a completely different district.

[Schiff for Senate]

Boebert?

maybe but that's kinda cheating with her moving to a completely different district.

Yeah, back in 2022 she won renomination by north of 30 points. Had she stayed put in CO03, she might not have survived the general, but I think the primary would've been a very easy win.

[Tekken_Guy]

Boebert?

maybe but that's kinda cheating with her moving to a completely different district.

Yeah, back in 2022 she won renomination by north of 30 points. Had she stayed put in CO03, she might not have survived the general, but I think the primary would've been a very easy win.

I think that beyond the carpetbagging she had a lot of personal scandals like the Beetlejuice incident which came out a few months before she switched districts.

I actually think she was in danger of losing her primary to Hurd and that might have been the catalyst to switching as much as concerns about the general because she saw the clown car that was developing.

[Schiff for Senate]

Boebert?

maybe but that's kinda cheating with her moving to a completely different district.

Yeah, back in 2022 she won renomination by north of 30 points. Had she stayed put in CO03, she might not have survived the general, but I think the primary would've been a very easy win.

I think that beyond the carpetbagging she had a lot of personal scandals like the Beetlejuice incident which came out a few months before she switched districts.

I actually think she was in danger of losing her primary to Hurd and that might have been the catalyst to switching as much as concerns about the general because she saw the clown car that was developing.

Ah yes, I forgot about that little gem of hers.

[Tekken_Guy]

Boebert?

maybe but that's kinda cheating with her moving to a completely different district.

Yeah, back in 2022 she won renomination by north of 30 points. Had she stayed put in CO03, she might not have survived the general, but I think the primary would've been a very easy win.

I think that beyond the carpetbagging she had a lot of personal scandals like the Beetlejuice incident which came out a few months before she switched districts.

I actually think she was in danger of losing her primary to Hurd and that might have been the catalyst to switching as much as concerns about the general because she saw the clown car that was developing.

Ah yes, I forgot about that little gem of hers.

Even if she squeaks out a victory in the primary I think she’s on borrowed time here. She’s a horrible fit for her district because of Douglas County, not unlike Jamaal Bowman with wealthy Dems in Westchester County and I anticipate a much more organized campaign against her.

Also it’s Trump+18 and rapidly left-trending and she puts an otherwise Safe R seat at risk long term.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Boebart getting chased out of CO-3

[Electric Circus]

Boebert is the obvious answer on the Republican side. The district switch makes the designation more fitting, not less.

You didn't ask about the Democratic side, but Cori Bush and Jamaal Bowman are worth mentioning. Expect the same cycle of increasingly desperate behavior as they realize they are losing, humiliating hit pieces seeded by those opposing them, and increasing tension with the national party as they lash out and become even greater liabilities.

[Schiff for Senate]

Boebert?

maybe but that's kinda cheating with her moving to a completely different district.

Yeah, back in 2022 she won renomination by north of 30 points. Had she stayed put in CO03, she might not have survived the general, but I think the primary would've been a very easy win.

I think that beyond the carpetbagging she had a lot of personal scandals like the Beetlejuice incident which came out a few months before she switched districts.

I actually think she was in danger of losing her primary to Hurd and that might have been the catalyst to switching as much as concerns about the general because she saw the clown car that was developing.

Ah yes, I forgot about that little gem of hers.

Even if she squeaks out a victory in the primary I think she’s on borrowed time here. She’s a horrible fit for her district because of Douglas County, not unlike Jamaal Bowman with wealthy Dems in Westchester County and I anticipate a much more organized campaign against her.

Also it’s Trump+18 and rapidly left-trending and she puts an otherwise Safe R seat at risk long term.

I honestly feel like it might come close in a D wave, but this seat is going to remain in R hands through this decade even with Boebart as the incumbent.

[Tekken_Guy]

Boebert?

maybe but that's kinda cheating with her moving to a completely different district.

Yeah, back in 2022 she won renomination by north of 30 points. Had she stayed put in CO03, she might not have survived the general, but I think the primary would've been a very easy win.

I think that beyond the carpetbagging she had a lot of personal scandals like the Beetlejuice incident which came out a few months before she switched districts.

I actually think she was in danger of losing her primary to Hurd and that might have been the catalyst to switching as much as concerns about the general because she saw the clown car that was developing.

Ah yes, I forgot about that little gem of hers.

Even if she squeaks out a victory in the primary I think she’s on borrowed time here. She’s a horrible fit for her district because of Douglas County, not unlike Jamaal Bowman with wealthy Dems in Westchester County and I anticipate a much more organized campaign against her.

Also it’s Trump+18 and rapidly left-trending and she puts an otherwise Safe R seat at risk long term.

I honestly feel like it might come close in a D wave, but this seat is going to remain in R hands through this decade even with Boebart as the incumbent.

Can you explain? It’s one of the fastest D-trending seats in the country.

[Schiff for Senate]

Boebert?

maybe but that's kinda cheating with her moving to a completely different district.

Yeah, back in 2022 she won renomination by north of 30 points. Had she stayed put in CO03, she might not have survived the general, but I think the primary would've been a very easy win.

I think that beyond the carpetbagging she had a lot of personal scandals like the Beetlejuice incident which came out a few months before she switched districts.

I actually think she was in danger of losing her primary to Hurd and that might have been the catalyst to switching as much as concerns about the general because she saw the clown car that was developing.

Ah yes, I forgot about that little gem of hers.

Even if she squeaks out a victory in the primary I think she’s on borrowed time here. She’s a horrible fit for her district because of Douglas County, not unlike Jamaal Bowman with wealthy Dems in Westchester County and I anticipate a much more organized campaign against her.

Also it’s Trump+18 and rapidly left-trending and she puts an otherwise Safe R seat at risk long term.

I honestly feel like it might come close in a D wave, but this seat is going to remain in R hands through this decade even with Boebart as the incumbent.

Can you explain? It’s one of the fastest D-trending seats in the country.

Aside from being 10+ points bluer, CO03 feels more elastic than CO04.
And an 18 point deficit seems like far too much for Democrats to overcome in the next few cycles, no matter how far left certain parts of it are trending (and ofc, much of the district isn't trending nearly as hard left as Douglas County).

[Tekken_Guy]

Boebert?

maybe but that's kinda cheating with her moving to a completely different district.

Yeah, back in 2022 she won renomination by north of 30 points. Had she stayed put in CO03, she might not have survived the general, but I think the primary would've been a very easy win.

I think that beyond the carpetbagging she had a lot of personal scandals like the Beetlejuice incident which came out a few months before she switched districts.

I actually think she was in danger of losing her primary to Hurd and that might have been the catalyst to switching as much as concerns about the general because she saw the clown car that was developing.

Ah yes, I forgot about that little gem of hers.

Even if she squeaks out a victory in the primary I think she’s on borrowed time here. She’s a horrible fit for her district because of Douglas County, not unlike Jamaal Bowman with wealthy Dems in Westchester County and I anticipate a much more organized campaign against her.

Also it’s Trump+18 and rapidly left-trending and she puts an otherwise Safe R seat at risk long term.

I honestly feel like it might come close in a D wave, but this seat is going to remain in R hands through this decade even with Boebart as the incumbent.

Can you explain? It’s one of the fastest D-trending seats in the country.

Aside from being 10+ points bluer, CO03 feels more elastic than CO04.
And an 18 point deficit seems like far too much for Democrats to overcome in the next few cycles, no matter how far left certain parts of it are trending (and ofc, much of the district isn't trending nearly as hard left as Douglas County).

That being said, Republicans will probably get rid of her in a primary before Dems can in a general. Her brand of politics is political kryptonite in Douglas County, so even if she sneaks through a primary this year she’ll have a hard time winning if she’s getting blown out in DougCo.

[adma]

Madison Cawthorn wasn't "far right" (that label is more apt for MTG, Boebart, etc) so much as he was an absolute and utter embarrassment because of what a goofball he was.

Though his connections to this bear some reflecting upon

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_Joshua

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

I don't think there will be one this year.

[Schiff for Senate]

Boebert?

maybe but that's kinda cheating with her moving to a completely different district.

Yeah, back in 2022 she won renomination by north of 30 points. Had she stayed put in CO03, she might not have survived the general, but I think the primary would've been a very easy win.

I think that beyond the carpetbagging she had a lot of personal scandals like the Beetlejuice incident which came out a few months before she switched districts.

I actually think she was in danger of losing her primary to Hurd and that might have been the catalyst to switching as much as concerns about the general because she saw the clown car that was developing.

Ah yes, I forgot about that little gem of hers.

Even if she squeaks out a victory in the primary I think she’s on borrowed time here. She’s a horrible fit for her district because of Douglas County, not unlike Jamaal Bowman with wealthy Dems in Westchester County and I anticipate a much more organized campaign against her.

Also it’s Trump+18 and rapidly left-trending and she puts an otherwise Safe R seat at risk long term.

I honestly feel like it might come close in a D wave, but this seat is going to remain in R hands through this decade even with Boebart as the incumbent.

Can you explain? It’s one of the fastest D-trending seats in the country.

Aside from being 10+ points bluer, CO03 feels more elastic than CO04.
And an 18 point deficit seems like far too much for Democrats to overcome in the next few cycles, no matter how far left certain parts of it are trending (and ofc, much of the district isn't trending nearly as hard left as Douglas County).

That being said, Republicans will probably get rid of her in a primary before Dems can in a general. Her brand of politics is political kryptonite in Douglas County, so even if she sneaks through a primary this year she’ll have a hard time winning if she’s getting blown out in DougCo.

This is a misconception that's all too frequently made (and in fairness, I used to repeat it quite a bit myself)...just because suburban counties like Douglas are trending leftward, doesn't mean that the Republicans in Douglas County are any less right-wing or any more moderate than their counterparts in, say, Kiowa County. The leftward shift in places like Douglas isn't because there's a large number of moderate Rs who supported Romney but were turned off by Trump. Rather, the county is trending leftward more because of an influx of new voters from places like CA (who have for the most part been reliable Democrats).

Keep in mind that much of the COGOP's loony apparatus is based in Douglas County (the names of the specific politicians aren't all at the top of my head, but for example, you've got Heidi Ganahl, who managed to hold onto Douglas despite being very right-wing and getting absolutely blown out statewide).

What I'm trying to say is, Boebart's underperformance in Douglas probably won't be much different than elsewhere in the district. The Republicans of Douglas County are NOT a bunch of moderate Rockefeller Republicans or anything of the sort. If Boebart does particularly poorly in Douglas County, it's probably more to do with overall trends than the fact that the Republican base in the county is particularly averse to her.

Her "brand of politics," far from kryptonite, wouldn't do all that much worse than the generic Republican brand in the district. And I cannot see her getting "blown out" in Douglas County anytime in the near future - right now, her worst case scenario would probably be just not winning it (as even gigantic losers like Ganahl have managed to do).

[Tekken_Guy]

This is a misconception that's all too frequently made (and in fairness, I used to repeat it quite a bit myself)...just because suburban counties like Douglas are trending leftward, doesn't mean that the Republicans in Douglas County are any less right-wing or any more moderate than their counterparts in, say, Kiowa County. The leftward shift in places like Douglas isn't because there's a large number of moderate Rs who supported Romney but were turned off by Trump. Rather, the county is trending leftward more because of an influx of new voters from places like CA (who have for the most part been reliable Democrats).

Keep in mind that much of the COGOP's loony apparatus is based in Douglas County (the names of the specific politicians aren't all at the top of my head, but for example, you've got Heidi Ganahl, who managed to hold onto Douglas despite being very right-wing and getting absolutely blown out statewide).

What I'm trying to say is, Boebart's underperformance in Douglas probably won't be much different than elsewhere in the district. The Republicans of Douglas County are NOT a bunch of moderate Rockefeller Republicans or anything of the sort. If Boebart does particularly poorly in Douglas County, it's probably more to do with overall trends than the fact that the Republican base in the county is particularly averse to her.

Her "brand of politics," far from kryptonite, wouldn't do all that much worse than the generic Republican brand in the district. And I cannot see her getting "blown out" in Douglas County anytime in the near future - right now, her worst case scenario would probably be just not winning it (as even gigantic losers like Ganahl have managed to do).

When I said “hard to win” I meant the primary, not the general. Ganahl may be right-wing but she is seen as the moderate candidate in the primary, if anything, compared to Greg Lopez who makes Boebert herself look sane. Ganahl obliterated Lopez in Douglas County by 20 points and that was enough for her to win the district by 9 points in the primary. O’Dea also did similarly to Ganahl both districtwide and in Douglas in the Senate primary vs. Ron Hanks.

Boebert’s biggest issue in the primary is that with Ted Harvey eliminated from the race, Jerry Sonnenberg is the only big establishment GOP candidate remaining. Meanwhile Richard Holtorf and Deb Flora, the other credible candidates left, are quite Trumpy themselves and could siphon enough votes away from Boebert to hand Sonnenberg the win.

Even if she sneaks out a win this year because the split field works in her favor, I think she goes down in 2026 against a singular opponent.

I’m getting NC-11 vibes from this race with Boebert as Cawthorn and Sonnenberg as Edwards. As you remember, Cawthorn won most of the rural counties but tanked in Buncombe.

[Schiff for Senate]

This is a misconception that's all too frequently made (and in fairness, I used to repeat it quite a bit myself)...just because suburban counties like Douglas are trending leftward, doesn't mean that the Republicans in Douglas County are any less right-wing or any more moderate than their counterparts in, say, Kiowa County. The leftward shift in places like Douglas isn't because there's a large number of moderate Rs who supported Romney but were turned off by Trump. Rather, the county is trending leftward more because of an influx of new voters from places like CA (who have for the most part been reliable Democrats).

Keep in mind that much of the COGOP's loony apparatus is based in Douglas County (the names of the specific politicians aren't all at the top of my head, but for example, you've got Heidi Ganahl, who managed to hold onto Douglas despite being very right-wing and getting absolutely blown out statewide).

What I'm trying to say is, Boebart's underperformance in Douglas probably won't be much different than elsewhere in the district. The Republicans of Douglas County are NOT a bunch of moderate Rockefeller Republicans or anything of the sort. If Boebart does particularly poorly in Douglas County, it's probably more to do with overall trends than the fact that the Republican base in the county is particularly averse to her.

Her "brand of politics," far from kryptonite, wouldn't do all that much worse than the generic Republican brand in the district. And I cannot see her getting "blown out" in Douglas County anytime in the near future - right now, her worst case scenario would probably be just not winning it (as even gigantic losers like Ganahl have managed to do).

When I said “hard to win” I meant the primary, not the general. Ganahl may be right-wing but she is seen as the moderate candidate in the primary, if anything, compared to Greg Lopez who makes Boebert herself look sane. Ganahl obliterated Lopez in Douglas County by 20 points and that was enough for her to win the district by 9 points in the primary. O’Dea also did similarly to Ganahl both districtwide and in Douglas in the Senate primary vs. Ron Hanks.

Boebert’s biggest issue in the primary is that with Ted Harvey eliminated from the race, Jerry Sonnenberg is the only big establishment GOP candidate remaining. Meanwhile Richard Holtorf and Deb Flora, the other credible candidates left, are quite Trumpy themselves and could siphon enough votes away from Boebert to hand Sonnenberg the win.

Even if she sneaks out a win this year because the split field works in her favor, I think she goes down in 2026 against a singular opponent.

I’m getting NC-11 vibes from this race with Boebert as Cawthorn and Sonnenberg as Edwards. As you remember, Cawthorn won most of the rural counties but tanked in Buncombe.

Tbf, the only reason Cawthorn had a respectable performance in any part of the district was because of how much the opposition was splintered between candidates.

[Utah Neolib]

I feel like Mark Harris could definitely be it. His operatives committed fraud in 2018, and has lasting grievances from said event. He’s some insane pastor type who could definitely go off on some quixotic rants.

[Tekken_Guy]

I feel like Mark Harris could definitely be it. His operatives committed fraud in 2018, and has lasting grievances from said event. He’s some insane pastor type who could definitely go off on some quixotic rants.

Harris already won his primary.

[Utah Neolib]

I feel like Mark Harris could definitely be it. His operatives committed fraud in 2018, and has lasting grievances from said event. He’s some insane pastor type who could definitely go off on some quixotic rants.

Harris already won his primary.

Misread the description, whoops. I do think he could be the next notable wing-nut though.

[Tekken_Guy]

I feel like Mark Harris could definitely be it. His operatives committed fraud in 2018, and has lasting grievances from said event. He’s some insane pastor type who could definitely go off on some quixotic rants.

Harris already won his primary.

Misread the description, whoops. I do think he could be the next notable wing-nut though.

That being said if he becomes a problem this next term the NCGOP could drop the hammer on him in 2026 like they did with Cawthorn.