What currently safe R seats have the potential to be competitive later this decade?

[Tekken_Guy]

What currently safe R seats have the potential to be competitive later this decade?

[S019]

TX-24 and CO-05

[xavier110]

AZ-08

[Schiff for Senate]

The two red seats in the Atlanta suburbs + the one in Colorado Springs come to mind

[ProgressiveModerate]

Of those that haven't been mentioned TN-05 though idk if it's even truly safe right now. VA-01, SC-01 and SC-02 also make sense.

In Texas I could see a similar situation to last decade where the Congressional gerrymander starts to fall right as the decade ends.

[ottermax]

I think it helps to look back at how 2014 compares to 2020.

Some districts that were considered safe in 2014 for the GOP that have become competitive or even blue by 2020 include:

AK At-Large
AZ-6 (Scottsdale)
CA-10 (Modesto/Stockton)
CA-25 (Santa Clarita)
CA-39 (North Orange County / San Gabriel Valley)
CA-45 (Irvine)
CA-48 (Huntington Beach)
CA-49 (Oceanside)
GA-6 and 7 (North Atlanta Suburbs)
IL-6 (Chicago Suburbs)
IN-5 (Indianapolis Suburbs)
MI-2 and 3 (Grand Rapids area)
MI-7 and 8 (Lansing / Detroit suburbs)
MN-3 (Minneapolis suburbs)
MO-2 (St. Louis suburbs)
NJ-7 and 11 (North Jersey suburbs)
NM-2 (Southern NM)
SC-1 (Charleston)
so many in Texas in Houston and DFW areas
WA-8 (Seattle eastside suburbs)
skipped NC, OH, and PA because I don't know enough about the districts

This was a terrible year for Democrats so some of these districts probably wouldn't have been considered "safe" for Republicans in a more even year, but I think we get the gist - suburbs in many parts of the country went from fairly reliable Republican territory to sometimes competitive or even lean Democratic areas in just 6 years.

The most notable shifts I would say were California, Midwest suburbs, Georgia and Texas.

Perhaps areas we would expect trends to favor Democrats would have been Long Island, Florida, and North Carolina, but they really did not turn out to trend in the same way as other suburban regions.

Now if we are to extrapolate current trends some districts for future shift might be:
AZ-5 (Mesa .... will Mormons become Democrats?)
CA-48 (East San Diego ... does the city keep sprawling east and changing the demographics?)
CA-4 (Douglas County / E. CO... can Colorado keep trending blue?)
FL-4 (Jacksonville growth or suburban trends?)
... in general Florida is so suburban you would think that if trends continue in the direction they are that some of these districts might become close especially in central FL, but it is Florida.
Georgia (any of the 5 seats surrounding Atlnta have some level of potential if growth continues outwards)
MN-6 (continued MN suburbanization?)
NV-2 (Reno growth)
North Carolina - the gerrymander is quite extreme, if growth continues in the triangle and Charlotte maybe one of these will become unsustainable
OK-5 (OKC, Democrats have overperformed here recently [but they also won this seat's equivalent in 2018 so maybe not a huge surprise])
SC-4 (Greenville/Spartanburg might shift over time?)
TX-22, TX-38 (Houston, demographic change and growth)
TX-24 (DFW blue shift, might put TX-3 or TX-26 at risk later)
TX-21 (Austin growth)
Utah

So that's about it. Honestly not that promising for Democrats but again in 2014 things looked bad and nobody would have imagined Orange County or Collin County being new sources of Democratic support in the 2014 at all.