CNN Top 10 Most Likely Senate Seats to Flip

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It's that time of year again

1) WV
2) MT
3) OH
4) NV
5) AZ
6) PA
7) MI
8 ) WI
9) MD
10) TX

Hogan's entry to the race knocks Florida off the list.

[Agafin]

Sinema is an independent which means that Arizona has a ~100% chance of flipping.

[TML]

Sinema is an independent which means that Arizona has a ~100% chance of flipping.

Technically true, but this ranking groups Sinema with the party she caucuses with.

[progressive85]

The first 5 sound right.  I think WI should be 6th, MI 7th, and PA 8th.  MD really makes no sense as anything except last - I can't see all of those Joe Biden voters going for a Republican senator (even if they thought he was a decent governor).  MD is very much a party state, it doesn't have ME's independent style.  So I'd switch TX and MD.  After these 10, all the rest are very safe, so it's the right 10, just the wrong order.

[President Johnson]

Sounds about right other than Maryland, which I would put either 10th or Florida 10th. And I personally would also switch Ohio and Montana. I think Tester is slightly more likely to hold on.

The 2024 map really sucks for Democrats, just like the 2018 one did. And they even lost three vulnerable seats back then.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Sinema is an independent which means that Arizona has a ~100% chance of flipping.

By technicality yes, but that kind of violates the spirit of lists like these.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Top three is more like it.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

10? There’s maybeee five that could flip

[oldtimer]

It's that time of year again

1) WV
2) MT
3) OH
4) NV
5) AZ
6) PA
7) MI
8 ) WI
9) MD
10) TX

Hogan's entry to the race knocks Florida off the list.

My list:

1. WV

Close seats.

2. OH (needs Trump+10)
3. NV
4. MI

No other seats likely to be closer than 5, but just to fill a top 8

5.AZ (needs Trump+10)
6.WI (needs Trump+10)
7.MT
8.MD

No other seat will likely to be closer than 10.

[Agafin]

It's that time of year again

1) WV
2) MT
3) OH
4) NV
5) AZ
6) PA
7) MI
8 ) WI
9) MD
10) TX

Hogan's entry to the race knocks Florida off the list.

My list:

1. WV

Close seats.

2. OH (needs Trump+10)
3. NV
4. MI

No other seats likely to be closer than 5, but just to fill a top 8

5.AZ (needs Trump+10)
6.WI (needs Trump+10)
7.MT
8.MD

No other seat will likely to be closer than 10.

Hmmm why do you think TX is locked to go for Cruz by 10+? He only won by 2.6pts last time. And both Abbott and Cornyn (the two other prominent statewide races since then) won their races by a little over 10 points.

I'd ask the same question for Fl-Sen really.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

I'd move PA down to 8 but the I think the rest of the order is mostly good.

[oldtimer]

It's that time of year again

1) WV
2) MT
3) OH
4) NV
5) AZ
6) PA
7) MI
8 ) WI
9) MD
10) TX

Hogan's entry to the race knocks Florida off the list.

My list:

1. WV

Close seats.

2. OH (needs Trump+10)
3. NV
4. MI

No other seats likely to be closer than 5, but just to fill a top 8

5.AZ (needs Trump+10)
6.WI (needs Trump+10)
7.MT
8.MD

No other seat will likely to be closer than 10.

Hmmm why do you think TX is locked to go for Cruz by 10+? He only won by 2.6pts last time. And both Abbott and Cornyn (the two other prominent statewide races since then) won their races by a little over 10 points.

I'd ask the same question for Fl-Sen really.

If Trump is going to win Texas and Florida by around 10, why should local Senators win by less ?

[Schiff for Senate]

MD is less competitive than TX (MD is far too blue to elect a Republican senator, I'm sorry). And the Midwestern trio feels wrong (for one thing I'd put WI above PA). Other than that, seems reasonable enough.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

LOL at PA before MI. Give me a break!!!!! Rogers is not brilliant but he's far stronger than McCormick lol

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lost me at PA being more likely to flip than WI and MI. PA is empirically and objectively a bluer state than WI and Casey has a stronger electoral track record than Baldwin. His polling has also been much stronger, so I'm kinda baffled by CNN's decision there. And when it comes to MI, well, I'm just gonna guess CNN straight up forgot that it's an open seat, because I really don't see the logic there. It should switch spots with PA.