Bigger Republican win: 2004 or 2016?

[President Johnson]

Dubya got reelected with 50.7% of the popular vote and 286 Electoral Votes (53.1%). He both won the most votes and an absolute majority, the only time a Republican did so after 1988. Trump in 2016 lost the popular vote by 2.1%, 46.1% to 48.2%, but won 20 more Electoral Votes than Bush, 306 (56.9%).

Which election overall do you consider the bigger win? I think it's definitely 2004. Bush also won the close states by more than Trump.

[Samof94]

Dubya got reelected with 50.7% of the popular vote and 286 Electoral Votes (53.1%). He both won the most votes and an absolute majority, the only time a Republican did so after 1988. Trump in 2016 lost the popular vote by 2.1%, 46.1% to 48.2%, but won 20 more Electoral Votes than Bush, 306 (56.9%).

Which election overall do you consider the bigger win? I think it's definitely 2004. Bush also won the close states by more than Trump.

Dems did MUCH better downballot in 2016.

[Sir Mohamed]

2004 is the obvious answer. W not omly won an absolute majority of the NPV, he also won the tipping point state by over 100k votes, where 2016 was decided by around 77k.

The total number of EC votes is just barely relevant, especially when you have above average 3rd party votes. It's like arguing 1980 was a bigger victory than 1964 because Reagan won 3 EVs more than Johnson (489 vs. 486).

[Progressive Pessimist]

At its simplest, they won the popular vote for the first and only time since Poppy Bush's election.

That alone made 2004 "impressive" by their standards. Then you can go into the state-by-state breakdown and downballot elections.

It's those kind of things that still make me think 2016 was a very narrow perfect storm for Trump. Take away maybe one advantage he ended up having-he loses.

[Del Tachi]

2004 is the obvious answer.

[progressive85]

I'd argue the bigger long-term win was definitely 2016.

Even though the popular vote was won in 2004, the election was still close, and after 2004, everything went downhill from there until 2009.

With 2016, you have a "new beginning" in a way for conservatives, and for one very important reason: the Supreme Court, which within 4 years would be a much more ideologically right court than the one that existed in 2008.

If Trump is elected in 2024, you can almost say in a way he's "re-elected."  Conservatives will be able to say that the last four years have just been a nightmare and everyone woke up.

[Beet]

2016.

The electoral college is what matters more. 2016 showed a possible new path to the GOP to breaking the blue wall which has been solid since 1992 otherwise.

[Vice President Christian Man]

2016. 2004 was a quintessential tossup, with Bush being favored somewhere between Obama and Trump. 2016 on the other hand was a surprise even to those who voted for him. There was some chatter that Clinton was going to win North Carolina and other than Ohio and Iowa it was believed that she was going to keep all of the states that Obama won 4 years earlier. Some of the states that Trump flipped took the cake in terms of surprises.

[OSR stands with Israel]

2004 was the bigger win but 2016 was more consequential for the GOP(well 2004 also was in the opposite way).

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Keep in mind a good portion of Democrats still discredit the 2004 popular vote win, by saying Bush was already an incumbent from the 2000 election.

[DPKdebator]

2004 was a bigger win, given that Bush actually won the popular vote and Republicans made decisive gains in the Senate. That being said, it was pretty underwhelming given the post-9/11 rally around the flag effect although this was already diminishing by the time the election rolled around.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Keep in mind a good portion of Democrats still discredit the 2004 popular vote win, by saying Bush was already an incumbent from the 2000 election.

Millennials, much less Gen Z, weren't alive last time Republicans won the popular vote as a challenging party.

Still, I think you'd have to be a pretty partisan Democrat to think Democrats would've won every presidential election after 1988 if elections were decided by popular vote only.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I remember a lot of commentary after 2004 about how America was a centre-right country given how Democrats had only won 3 presidential elections since 1968. Liberals were so demoralised that the "moving to Canada" meme was born.

[lfromnj]

Technically speaking in 2016 R's won more senate seats from that class, more house seats and more electoral votes.

[President Johnson]

Technically speaking in 2016 R's won more senate seats from that class, more house seats and more electoral votes.

Well, but just by downballot standards, 2016 was even bigger than 1972 or 1984.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Technically speaking in 2016 R's won more senate seats from that class, more house seats and more electoral votes.

Well, but just by downballot standards, 2016 was even bigger than 1972 or 1984.

You could make the argument though 1980 was a better night for the GOP than 1984 given the senate results both cycles