How likely is a Republican Rematch in the 2028 primary?

[Compuzled_One]

What I mean is, how likely is it that the fight becomes Trump vs. Haley again? While Republicans have an odd tendency to nominate the runner up, Haley kinda burned a lot of bridges, and Trump will still hold a lot of sway.

I personally think a rematch can happen, but the most likely way it does is if Republicans lose 2024 AND underperform the 2026 midterms (alongside Trump not dying, being jailed, or being incapacitated). This should amp up Haley's message and allow her to consolidate support again. Otherwise, Youngkin or Kemp will be the likely consolidator, assuming they run of course. So, overall, I think it's about a 10% chance.

[Electric Circus]

Haley doesn't have a future in Republican politics. It doesn't matter if subsequent events vindicate her. This is true in most walks of life, no one likes the person who gets too far ahead of the consensus.

Trump losing, screwing up a bunch of midterm races, and proceeding to run again on a platform of having been cheated out of the prior two elections sounds too outrageous to be true, but it's hard to rule it out after watching the party rally behind him again in this cycle. There's no popular energy behind the GOP that compares to what he brings. It's either a TRUMP party or a RUMP party.