House members that had close races in 2022 but are safer this year

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

These members won races by narrow margins (<10%) last time but aren't forecasted to be in any serious trouble this year.

Democrats
-Yadira Caraveo
-Chris DeLuzio
-Jahana Hayes
-Jared Moskowitz
-Seth Magaziner
-Joseph Morelle
-Pat Ryan
-Andrea Salinas
-Kim Schrier
-Darren Soto

Republicans
-Ashley Hinson
-Mariannette Miller-Meeks
-Michelle Steel

Anyone else to add to (or remove from) this list?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

MT01, WI03, and VA02 come to mind.

[Tekken_Guy]

While Lauren Boebert’s own fate in the CO-04 primary is unclear, the GOP looks to be in a solid position to hold CO-03.

[SilverStar]

While Lauren Boebert’s own fate in the CO-04 primary is unclear, the GOP looks to be in a solid position to hold CO-03.

Hanks is the most likely nominee so CO-03 is lean D.

[SilverStar]

Steel isn't doing better in 2024 against a Vietnamese Democrat. End of story.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Safer doesn't necessary mean safe. For instance, I think Caraveo in CO-08 is favored to win by more than last time, but could still see that seat going R in the right circumstances.

Also Steele is def not safer. She didn't win by much in 2022 when Dems didn't really take that race seriously, CA-45 is probably won by Biden at the end of the day. Alos the Dem is Vietnamese which is huge in CA-45.

[ProgressiveModerate]

MT01, WI03, and VA02 come to mind.

Disagree. In MT-01 and WI-03 2022 exposed a sort of unexpected weakness for Rs in these seats; it's probable in 2024 the national environment for House will be better for Dems and they actually spend in these seats.

As for Kiggans, I see the argument she's favored, but certainly not a heavy favorite; VA-02 is honestly probably pretty close to the tipping point seat and I'd say Biden is favored to carry it at the federal level; expect a lot of Dem investment here.

[progressive85]

All of these won by less than 53% and their re-election races seem to favor them as of right now:

Juan Ciscomani (R - AZ 6)
Frank Mvran (D - IN 1)
Zach Nunn (R - IA 3)
John James (R - MI 10)
Angie Craig (D - MN 2)
Greg Landsman (D - OH 1)
Val Hoyle (D - OR 4)

I would not be surprised if we saw a 218-217 Congress, either way.  I don't know if that's ever happened.  The one after the 2000 election was very close but it could be even closer this year.  This would probably give daily headaches to either party because just one special election could tip control over.

[Progressive Pessimist]

All of these won by less than 53% and their re-election races seem to favor them as of right now:

Juan Ciscomani (R - AZ 6)
Frank Mvran (D - IN 1)
Zach Nunn (R - IA 3)
John James (R - MI 10)
Angie Craig (D - MN 2)
Greg Landsman (D - OH 1)
Val Hoyle (D - OR 4)

I would not be surprised if we saw a 218-217 Congress, either way.  I don't know if that's ever happened.  The one after the 2000 election was very close but it could be even closer this year.  This would probably give daily headaches to either party because just one special election could tip control over.

The only one I'll disagree with is Ciscomani. I expect Democrats to heavily target and invest there.

[progressive85]

All of these won by less than 53% and their re-election races seem to favor them as of right now:

Juan Ciscomani (R - AZ 6)
Frank Mvran (D - IN 1)
Zach Nunn (R - IA 3)
John James (R - MI 10)
Angie Craig (D - MN 2)
Greg Landsman (D - OH 1)
Val Hoyle (D - OR 4)

I would not be surprised if we saw a 218-217 Congress, either way.  I don't know if that's ever happened.  The one after the 2000 election was very close but it could be even closer this year.  This would probably give daily headaches to either party because just one special election could tip control over.

The only one I'll disagree with is Ciscomani. I expect Democrats to heavily target and invest there.

It looks like it'll be then Kirsten Engel as the D nominee, yes?

[Progressive Pessimist]

All of these won by less than 53% and their re-election races seem to favor them as of right now:

Juan Ciscomani (R - AZ 6)
Frank Mvran (D - IN 1)
Zach Nunn (R - IA 3)
John James (R - MI 10)
Angie Craig (D - MN 2)
Greg Landsman (D - OH 1)
Val Hoyle (D - OR 4)

I would not be surprised if we saw a 218-217 Congress, either way.  I don't know if that's ever happened.  The one after the 2000 election was very close but it could be even closer this year.  This would probably give daily headaches to either party because just one special election could tip control over.

The only one I'll disagree with is Ciscomani. I expect Democrats to heavily target and invest there.

It looks like it'll be then Kirsten Engel as the D nominee, yes?

I think she's running again, and will be nominated.

[SilverStar]

All of these won by less than 53% and their re-election races seem to favor them as of right now:

Juan Ciscomani (R - AZ 6)
Frank Mvran (D - IN 1)
Zach Nunn (R - IA 3)
John James (R - MI 10)
Angie Craig (D - MN 2)
Greg Landsman (D - OH 1)
Val Hoyle (D - OR 4)

I would not be surprised if we saw a 218-217 Congress, either way.  I don't know if that's ever happened.  The one after the 2000 election was very close but it could be even closer this year.  This would probably give daily headaches to either party because just one special election could tip control over.

James can lose,Marlinga had no money and almost won

[Schiff for Senate]

All of these won by less than 53% and their re-election races seem to favor them as of right now:

Juan Ciscomani (R - AZ 6)
Frank Mvran (D - IN 1)
Zach Nunn (R - IA 3)
John James (R - MI 10)
Angie Craig (D - MN 2)
Greg Landsman (D - OH 1)
Val Hoyle (D - OR 4)

I would not be surprised if we saw a 218-217 Congress, either way.  I don't know if that's ever happened.  The one after the 2000 election was very close but it could be even closer this year.  This would probably give daily headaches to either party because just one special election could tip control over.

James won razor thin and it's a very swingy district. He can be dislodged if there's sufficient investment, I think (tho I'm not the most acquainted with this race, so correct me if I'm wrong).

Edit: otoh this area seems like it has a lot of potential to swing rightward (white working-class Detroit suburbs), so you may be right after all.

[Tekken_Guy]

All of these won by less than 53% and their re-election races seem to favor them as of right now:

Juan Ciscomani (R - AZ 6)
Frank Mvran (D - IN 1)
Zach Nunn (R - IA 3)
John James (R - MI 10)
Angie Craig (D - MN 2)
Greg Landsman (D - OH 1)
Val Hoyle (D - OR 4)

I would not be surprised if we saw a 218-217 Congress, either way.  I don't know if that's ever happened.  The one after the 2000 election was very close but it could be even closer this year.  This would probably give daily headaches to either party because just one special election could tip control over.

James won razor thin and it's a very swingy district. He can be dislodged if there's sufficient investment, I think (tho I'm not the most acquainted with this race, so correct me if I'm wrong).

Edit: otoh this area seems like it has a lot of potential to swing rightward (white working-class Detroit suburbs), so you may be right after all.

I’m in the middle. I think James wins by a slightly larger but still fairly narrow margin this year and goes down in 2026 if it’s a Trump midterm.