Abortion rights amendment will be on FL ballot this year

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It needs 60% to pass. I don’t know if it can get 60. If it fails to even get 50%, then Dems should completely abandon FL for the future, as that would show that FL is solidly conservative in terms of ideology.

Abortion got 57% in Ohio. It has a very good chance.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It needs 60% to pass. I don’t know if it can get 60. If it fails to even get 50%, then Dems should completely abandon FL for the future, as that would show that FL is solidly conservative in terms of ideology.

Abortion got 57% in Ohio. It has a very good chance.

Ohio is probably more liberal than Florida though.

[2016]

It needs 60% to pass though right?

Yes.  Thus far, the pro-choice position has been held under 60% in every 2020 or 2016 Trump-won state that had a referendum since Dobbs.  Kansas came closest at 59.1%, but pro-choice had the relative advantage of being a no vote on that referendum.  A no vote will be the pro-life position in Florida. 

Thus far, pro-choice has exceeded 60% in only Vermont (77%) and California (67%).  It was between 56-57% in both Ohio and Michigan as the yes vote.  Given the large Hispanic and relatively large white Evangelical population in Florida, I don't think it's reasonable they vote <7% right of California on this!

Florida Republicans are not as conservative on this issue as you think they are.

Skill & Chance makes a reasonable Point here. Florida isn't VT or CA. If they can't even get 60 % in Kansas there is no reason to believe they will hit 60 % in FL.

Florida isn't Kansas.

Kansas is the upside argument for pro-choice on this referendum, their best performance in the nation relative to Biden 2020 #'s.  The downside argument would actually be California, oddly enough.  It's the only other heavily Hispanic state to have one of these so far, and it was by far the weakest overperformance of Biden- 63% Biden vs. 67% pro-choice (interestingly enough this was mainly because it only ran approximately even with Biden in L.A. County).  I would say that North Florida alone means white people in Florida are obviously less pro-choice than white people in California?

I just can't see Florida voting to the left of Michigan on Abortion where it got 56.7 % of the Vote during the 2022 Roe Midterm.

While Abortion will still be a potent Issue for Democrats I don't think it will be as potent as in the year where Roe got overturned.

If you look at National Polls Abortion is down to the 11-12 % Range from 27 % during the 2022 Midterms. People will be more tuned in on Immigration which in the worst-case scenario actually could cost Biden the Election. Nearly 40 % of Voters view Immigration as Top Issue and they not buying what Biden is saying. Remember: It was President Biden who was rescinding all of Trumps Border Measures via Executive Orders on his first Day in Office. He is the sole reason we are in this mess.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The biggest issue for this passing is the panhandle. If you look at the Bill Nelson 2012 map, I expect those counties to vote for it. But the panhandle is basically Alabama in an otherwise moderate state.

[Skill and Chance]

The biggest issue for this passing is the panhandle. If you look at the Bill Nelson 2012 map, I expect those counties to vote for it. But the panhandle is basically Alabama in an otherwise moderate state.

The closest comparison we have for rural ancestral Dems is Kentucky.  Pro-choice generally outran Trump by 10%+ in those counties.  Other than Jefferson and maybe Madison, none of the North Florida rural counties are remotely close anymore, though.  Maybe it wins Escambia?  Actually, that might be a statewide win condition for it? 

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Safe Trump -> Safe Trump

[Splash]

The difference between Florida and Michigan is that abortion remained legal and available through the election in Michigan, which won't be the case in Florida. It remains to be seen how much impact that variable will have on the referendum but it should be factored into the comparison.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The biggest issue for this passing is the panhandle. If you look at the Bill Nelson 2012 map, I expect those counties to vote for it. But the panhandle is basically Alabama in an otherwise moderate state.

The Florida Panhandle is sometimes jokingly called Lower Alabama or Baja Alabama.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This might help with Democratic turnout, but only marginally. The state is still unwinnable for Democrats.

And the amendment passes, though doesn't reach the 60% threshold.

[Boobs]

I imagine there would be significant voter anger if the amendment passes 50, especially if convincingly, but fails to clear 60%. Might be the FLDP’s last hope for a win in 2026, but they’d probably blow that opportunity, too.

[2016]

The difference between Florida and Michigan is that abortion remained legal and available through the election in Michigan, which won't be the case in Florida. It remains to be seen how much impact that variable will have on the referendum but it should be factored into the comparison.

That might be true BUT you can't compare the Michigan or even Ohio Republican Party to the Florida Republican Party. Clearly Michigan & Ohio Republicans were not prepared for these Referendums, Florida will.

The Florida Republican State Party is probably right now the strongest Republican State Party in any of the 50 States. They are well prepared and have been preparing for this scenario for weeks if not months.

[GALeftist]

The difference between Florida and Michigan is that abortion remained legal and available through the election in Michigan, which won't be the case in Florida. It remains to be seen how much impact that variable will have on the referendum but it should be factored into the comparison.

That might be true BUT you can't compare the Michigan or even Ohio Republican Party to the Florida Republican Party. Clearly Michigan & Ohio Republicans were not prepared for these Referendums, Florida will.

The Florida Republican State Party is probably right now the strongest Republican State Party in any of the 50 States. They are well prepared and have been preparing for this scenario for weeks if not months.

Perhaps, but I think there are also a lot of other important differences between Ohio/Michigan and Florida that you’re glossing over. In particular, Florida is likely to have more pro-choice Republicans than either Michigan or Ohio. Split Ticket estimated two years ago that Florida is pro-choice+16, more pro-choice than Michigan (+14) and especially Ohio (+6). Combine that with the fact that Florida is also simply bluer than Ohio and a victory starts to seem very plausible.

That said, I think this will be very close and do not feel confident enough to make any predictions here.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The biggest issue for this passing is the panhandle. If you look at the Bill Nelson 2012 map, I expect those counties to vote for it. But the panhandle is basically Alabama in an otherwise moderate state.

The closest comparison we have for rural ancestral Dems is Kentucky.  Pro-choice generally outran Trump by 10%+ in those counties.  Other than Jefferson and maybe Madison, none of the North Florida rural counties are remotely close anymore, though.  Maybe it wins Escambia?  Actually, that might be a statewide win condition for it? 

2 differences though.
Appalachia is far more pro choice than the deep south.
In KY, pro abortion was the no side so it had a built in advantage. It's the opposite in Florida.

[7,052,770]

I imagine there would be significant voter anger if the amendment passes 50, especially if convincingly, but fails to clear 60%. Might be the FLDP’s last hope for a win in 2026, but they’d probably blow that opportunity, too.

Every single Yes voter will know if that if Biden wins and Democrats control Congress, they can pass through this amendment nationwide by codifying Roe. So the campaign will be "Yes/Biden/D Senate/D House" and be really good for all of the Democratic candidates.

Republicans might end up wishing they just had the 50% threshold and let this pass in Florida rather than letting Florida be the difference in Congress enacting it everywhere.

[Oryxslayer]

MCIMaps went fairly deep into these issues (or as deep as you can go with limited advance warning) in his newsletter today. He has his own biases but the Tallahassee operative does cover some of the questions people are posing here.

[2016]

I imagine there would be significant voter anger if the amendment passes 50, especially if convincingly, but fails to clear 60%. Might be the FLDP’s last hope for a win in 2026, but they’d probably blow that opportunity, too.

Every single Yes voter will know if that if Biden wins and Democrats control Congress, they can pass through this amendment nationwide by codifying Roe. So the campaign will be "Yes/Biden/D Senate/D House" and be really good for all of the Democratic candidates.

Republicans might end up wishing they just had the 50% threshold and let this pass in Florida rather than letting Florida be the difference in Congress enacting it everywhere.

The Democrats won't get a trifecta next year. Not happening! Wishcasting on Democrats behalf. Abortion only becomes really potent in Florida if it is outpolling other issues like economy & immigration.

[Skill and Chance]

MCIMaps went fairly deep into these issues (or as deep as you can go with limited advance warning) in his newsletter today. He has his own biases but the Tallahassee operative does cover some of the questions people are posing here.

Hmmm.. so an amendment to put an abortion ban in the state constitution got 45% in 2012.  That seems like a good starting point.  How net pro-choice do we believe people who have registered to vote in FL since 2012 are?  And how big do we think the No advantage is on referendum like this?

[Sol]

MCIMaps went fairly deep into these issues (or as deep as you can go with limited advance warning) in his newsletter today. He has his own biases but the Tallahassee operative does cover some of the questions people are posing here.

Hmmm.. so an amendment to put an abortion ban in the state constitution got 45% in 2012.  That seems like a good starting point.  How net pro-choice do we believe people who have registered to vote in FL since 2012 are?  And how big do we think the No advantage is on referendum like this?

FYI, the referendum was banning state funding for abortion and revising language around the right to privacy in the state constitution pertaining to abortion; it wasn't a ban. It's pretty easy to imagine people who don't want state funding for abortion and who aren't that comfortable with it, but who don't want the current legal status in FL.

[Skill and Chance]

MCIMaps went fairly deep into these issues (or as deep as you can go with limited advance warning) in his newsletter today. He has his own biases but the Tallahassee operative does cover some of the questions people are posing here.

Hmmm.. so an amendment to put an abortion ban in the state constitution got 45% in 2012.  That seems like a good starting point.  How net pro-choice do we believe people who have registered to vote in FL since 2012 are?  And how big do we think the No advantage is on referendum like this?

FYI, the referendum was banning state funding for abortion and revising language around the right to privacy in the state constitution pertaining to abortion; it wasn't a ban. It's pretty easy to imagine people who don't want state funding for abortion and who aren't that comfortable with it, but who don't want the current legal status in FL.

You're right, I should have clarified that.  However, it did include there is no right to abortion in the state constitution language like the referendum in Kentucky in 2022 where pro-life was yes.  And of course any policy changes beyond maybe the government funding would have been preempted by Roe/Casey back then.

[EastwoodS]

Well, this alone honestly kind of assures we won't see a Trump +9 result. This will help itself a ton with Dem engagement and turnout.

You’re such a hack

[Pres Mike]

I'll admit that 60% is hard to get

But Kansas got 59.16%

[2016]

https://twitter.com/FLVoiceNews/status/1776980775105159377

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

https://twitter.com/FLVoiceNews/status/1776980775105159377

Well, they lost.

[EastwoodS]

https://twitter.com/FLVoiceNews/status/1776980775105159377

Well, they lost.

I’m pro choice but trying to skew elections with ballot initiatives because your party itself is wholly unelectable is scummy af

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

https://twitter.com/FLVoiceNews/status/1776980775105159377

Well, they lost.

I’m pro choice but trying to skew elections with ballot initiatives because your party itself is wholly unelectable is scummy af

Utter nonsense. This is a perfectly legitimate ballot initiative.

The reason this has happened is because Ron DeSantis and the Florida legislature pulled a bait and switch with their initial 15 week abortion ban prior to the 2022 election.

When Charlie Crist brought up the Texas 6 week abortion ban, DeSantis even defacto lied 'we're not Texas, we have a 15 week abortion ban.'

So, if this costs grifter rapist traitor Donald Trump the state of Florida, Republicans have nobody to blame but themselves.