Abortion rights amendment will be on FL ballot this year

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1774890382028927389

[Steve from Lambeth]

Why did I think this was an April Fool?

[seskoog]

It needs 60% to pass. I don’t know if it can get 60. If it fails to even get 50%, then Dems should completely abandon FL for the future, as that would show that FL is solidly conservative in terms of ideology.

[ajc0918]

I will be voting yes on both Amendment 3 (legal recreational marijuana) and Amendment 4 (abortion rights).

[Virginiá]

It needs 60% to pass. I don’t know if it can get 60. If it fails to even get 50%, then Dems should completely abandon FL for the future, as that would show that FL is solidly conservative in terms of ideology.

I'm personally expecting somewhere in the ballpark of 55 - 58%. I'd be surprised if it broke 60%. I would give much better odds to marijuana legalization passing.

FWIW a poll from late last year gave abortion 62% approval and 67% to marijuana legalization.

[ajc0918]

It needs 60% to pass. I don’t know if it can get 60. If it fails to even get 50%, then Dems should completely abandon FL for the future, as that would show that FL is solidly conservative in terms of ideology.

I'm personally expecting somewhere in the ballpark of 55 - 58%. I'd be surprised if it broke 60%. I would give much better odds to marijuana legalization passing.

FWIW a poll from late last year gave abortion 62% approval and 67% to marijuana legalization.

You're forgetting that a six-week abortion ban will take effect in 30 days (another decision that just dropped). There will be backlash from that ruling that will no doubt benefit Amendment 4.

Both amendments have a path to 60% but I'd agree Amendment 3 is probably easier.

[Virginiá]

You're forgetting that a six-week abortion ban will take effect in 30 days (another decision that just dropped). There will be backlash from that ruling that will no doubt benefit Amendment 4.

Both amendments have a path to 60% but I'd agree Amendment 3 is probably easier.

Not forgetting, just pessimistic about its chances. I hope to be proven wrong!

[7,052,770]

FL-PRES: Likely R -> Tossup

A final "F you" from Ron to Don

[GeorgiaModerate]

What effect is this likely to have on the presidential and downballot races?

[wbrocks67]

Well, this alone honestly kind of assures we won't see a Trump +9 result. This will help itself a ton with Dem engagement and turnout.

[2016]

This Amendment will fail. It will not get 60 % of the Vote.

The Florida Republican Party is right here. This Amendment has "No Limits". It would allow Abortions up to 6 months of Pregnancy and because of a loophole within the Amendment potentially up until birth.

I agree with Florida Republicans here, it's too extreme.

Nikki Fried is a RADICAL and so is Pres Biden & Vice President Harris.

[xavier110]

Well, this alone honestly kind of assures we won't see a Trump +9 result. This will help itself a ton with Dem engagement and turnout.

Yeah, I seriously doubt FL is a double-digit Trump victory now.

[Skill and Chance]

Wow, looks like it was 4/3, with both of the non-DeSantis appointees in the 4.  The initiative to legalize recreational marijuana was approved 5/2 and it appears they also ruled 6/1 that under existing law, there is no right to abortion in the Florida constitution, which means the 6 week ban takes effect until/unless it is repealed by the amendment vote.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It needs 60% to pass though right?

[2016]

It needs 60% to pass though right?

Yes, and it won't given how radical it is. Florida would become the Southeast Hub for Abortions with this crap.

[ajc0918]

Florida's Supreme Court just allowed a total abortion ban in Florida, most women do not know they are pregnant at six weeks. Amendment 4 is the only way to legalize reproductive rights in Florida.

[Skill and Chance]

It needs 60% to pass though right?

Yes.  Thus far, the pro-choice position has been held under 60% in every 2020 or 2016 Trump-won state that had a referendum since Dobbs.  Kansas came closest at 59.1%, but pro-choice had the relative advantage of being a no vote on that referendum.  A no vote will be the pro-life position in Florida.  

Thus far, pro-choice has exceeded 60% in only Vermont (77%) and California (67%).  It was between 56-57% in both Ohio and Michigan as the yes vote.  Given the large Hispanic and relatively large white Evangelical population in Florida, I don't think it's reasonable they vote <7% right of California on this!

[Skill and Chance]

It needs 60% to pass though right?

Yes, and it won't given how radical it is. Florida would become the Southeast Hub for Abortions with this crap.

Would they be reasonable enough to come back with a 12 or 15 week referendum in 2026?  If so, that would likely get 60%. 

[ajc0918]

It needs 60% to pass though right?

Yes.  Thus far, the pro-choice position has been held under 60% in every 2020 or 2016 Trump-won state that had a referendum since Dobbs.  Kansas came closest at 59.1%, but pro-choice had the relative advantage of being a no vote on that referendum.  A no vote will be the pro-life position in Florida.  

Thus far, pro-choice has exceeded 60% in only Vermont (77%) and California (67%).  It was between 56-57% in both Ohio and Michigan as the yes vote.  Given the large Hispanic and relatively large white Evangelical population in Florida, I don't think it's reasonable they vote <7% right of California on this!

Florida Republicans are not as conservative on this issue as you think they are.

[2016]

It needs 60% to pass though right?

Yes, and it won't given how radical it is. Florida would become the Southeast Hub for Abortions with this crap.

Would they be reasonable enough to come back with a 12 or 15 week referendum in 2026?  If so, that would likely get 60%. 

12 or 15 Weeks are reasonable to me but this thing has no limits.

[Skill and Chance]

It needs 60% to pass though right?

Yes.  Thus far, the pro-choice position has been held under 60% in every 2020 or 2016 Trump-won state that had a referendum since Dobbs.  Kansas came closest at 59.1%, but pro-choice had the relative advantage of being a no vote on that referendum.  A no vote will be the pro-life position in Florida.  

Thus far, pro-choice has exceeded 60% in only Vermont (77%) and California (67%).  It was between 56-57% in both Ohio and Michigan as the yes vote.  Given the large Hispanic and relatively large white Evangelical population in Florida, I don't think it's reasonable they vote <7% right of California on this!

Florida Republicans are not as conservative on this issue as you think they are.

IDK, they need a result left of Michigan, though

[2016]

It needs 60% to pass though right?

Yes.  Thus far, the pro-choice position has been held under 60% in every 2020 or 2016 Trump-won state that had a referendum since Dobbs.  Kansas came closest at 59.1%, but pro-choice had the relative advantage of being a no vote on that referendum.  A no vote will be the pro-life position in Florida.  

Thus far, pro-choice has exceeded 60% in only Vermont (77%) and California (67%).  It was between 56-57% in both Ohio and Michigan as the yes vote.  Given the large Hispanic and relatively large white Evangelical population in Florida, I don't think it's reasonable they vote <7% right of California on this!

Florida Republicans are not as conservative on this issue as you think they are.

Skill & Chance makes a reasonable Point here. Florida isn't VT or CA. If they can't even get 60 % in Kansas there is no reason to believe they will hit 60 % in FL.

[ajc0918]

It needs 60% to pass though right?

Yes.  Thus far, the pro-choice position has been held under 60% in every 2020 or 2016 Trump-won state that had a referendum since Dobbs.  Kansas came closest at 59.1%, but pro-choice had the relative advantage of being a no vote on that referendum.  A no vote will be the pro-life position in Florida.  

Thus far, pro-choice has exceeded 60% in only Vermont (77%) and California (67%).  It was between 56-57% in both Ohio and Michigan as the yes vote.  Given the large Hispanic and relatively large white Evangelical population in Florida, I don't think it's reasonable they vote <7% right of California on this!

Florida Republicans are not as conservative on this issue as you think they are.

Skill & Chance makes a reasonable Point here. Florida isn't VT or CA. If they can't even get 60 % in Kansas there is no reason to believe they will hit 60 % in FL.

Florida isn't Kansas.

[2016]

It needs 60% to pass though right?

Yes.  Thus far, the pro-choice position has been held under 60% in every 2020 or 2016 Trump-won state that had a referendum since Dobbs.  Kansas came closest at 59.1%, but pro-choice had the relative advantage of being a no vote on that referendum.  A no vote will be the pro-life position in Florida.  

Thus far, pro-choice has exceeded 60% in only Vermont (77%) and California (67%).  It was between 56-57% in both Ohio and Michigan as the yes vote.  Given the large Hispanic and relatively large white Evangelical population in Florida, I don't think it's reasonable they vote <7% right of California on this!

Florida Republicans are not as conservative on this issue as you think they are.

Skill & Chance makes a reasonable Point here. Florida isn't VT or CA. If they can't even get 60 % in Kansas there is no reason to believe they will hit 60 % in FL.

Florida isn't Kansas.

True, Florida isn't Kansas BUT Florida also isn't Michigan. I can't imagine Florida voting to the left on Michigan on Abortion, can you?

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-elections/michigan-ballot-measures

[Skill and Chance]

It needs 60% to pass though right?

Yes.  Thus far, the pro-choice position has been held under 60% in every 2020 or 2016 Trump-won state that had a referendum since Dobbs.  Kansas came closest at 59.1%, but pro-choice had the relative advantage of being a no vote on that referendum.  A no vote will be the pro-life position in Florida. 

Thus far, pro-choice has exceeded 60% in only Vermont (77%) and California (67%).  It was between 56-57% in both Ohio and Michigan as the yes vote.  Given the large Hispanic and relatively large white Evangelical population in Florida, I don't think it's reasonable they vote <7% right of California on this!

Florida Republicans are not as conservative on this issue as you think they are.

Skill & Chance makes a reasonable Point here. Florida isn't VT or CA. If they can't even get 60 % in Kansas there is no reason to believe they will hit 60 % in FL.

Florida isn't Kansas.

Kansas is the upside argument for pro-choice on this referendum, their best performance in the nation relative to Biden 2020 #'s.  The downside argument would actually be California, oddly enough.  It's the only other heavily Hispanic state to have one of these so far, and it was by far the weakest overperformance of Biden- 63% Biden vs. 67% pro-choice (interestingly enough this was mainly because it only ran approximately even with Biden in L.A. County).  I would say that North Florida alone means white people in Florida are obviously less pro-choice than white people in California?