Which R senate candidate will underperform Trump?
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  Which R senate candidate will underperform Trump?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: assuming the currently leading candidates
#1
AZ		  
#2
NV		  
#3
WI		  
#4
MI		  
#5
PA		  
#6
TX		  
#7
NM		  
#8
MN		  
#9
FL		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 20

Author Topic: Which R senate candidate will underperform Trump?  (Read 511 times)
David Hume
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« on: April 01, 2024, 01:52:42 AM »
OH and MT are obvious. AZ (Lake) is very likely. NV MI WI PA are not obvious. MI 2020, WI and PA 2016 overperformed. But WI and PA have incumbents. It seems to me the most likely overperformer is MI.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #1 on: April 01, 2024, 01:59:47 PM »
Quote from: David Hume on April 01, 2024, 01:52:42 AM
OH and MT are obvious. AZ (Lake) is very likely. NV MI WI PA are not obvious. MI 2020, WI and PA 2016 overperformed. But WI and PA have incumbents. It seems to me the most likely overperformer is MI.

None of these IMO.
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David Hume
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« Reply #2 on: April 01, 2024, 02:12:09 PM »
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on April 01, 2024, 01:59:47 PM
Quote from: David Hume on April 01, 2024, 01:52:42 AM
OH and MT are obvious. AZ (Lake) is very likely. NV MI WI PA are not obvious. MI 2020, WI and PA 2016 overperformed. But WI and PA have incumbents. It seems to me the most likely overperformer is MI.

None of these IMO.
You dont think Lake will underperform Trump?
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #3 on: April 01, 2024, 02:20:11 PM »
Quote from: David Hume on April 01, 2024, 02:12:09 PM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on April 01, 2024, 01:59:47 PM
Quote from: David Hume on April 01, 2024, 01:52:42 AM
OH and MT are obvious. AZ (Lake) is very likely. NV MI WI PA are not obvious. MI 2020, WI and PA 2016 overperformed. But WI and PA have incumbents. It seems to me the most likely overperformer is MI.

None of these IMO.
You dont think Lake will underperform Trump?

I misread the question. I meant all of them.
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David Hume
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« Reply #4 on: April 01, 2024, 04:39:34 PM »
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on April 01, 2024, 02:20:11 PM
Quote from: David Hume on April 01, 2024, 02:12:09 PM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on April 01, 2024, 01:59:47 PM
Quote from: David Hume on April 01, 2024, 01:52:42 AM
OH and MT are obvious. AZ (Lake) is very likely. NV MI WI PA are not obvious. MI 2020, WI and PA 2016 overperformed. But WI and PA have incumbents. It seems to me the most likely overperformer is MI.

None of these IMO.
You dont think Lake will underperform Trump?

I misread the question. I meant all of them.
Why MI?
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #5 on: April 01, 2024, 04:42:46 PM »
Quote from: David Hume on April 01, 2024, 04:39:34 PM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on April 01, 2024, 02:20:11 PM
Quote from: David Hume on April 01, 2024, 02:12:09 PM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on April 01, 2024, 01:59:47 PM
Quote from: David Hume on April 01, 2024, 01:52:42 AM
OH and MT are obvious. AZ (Lake) is very likely. NV MI WI PA are not obvious. MI 2020, WI and PA 2016 overperformed. But WI and PA have incumbents. It seems to me the most likely overperformer is MI.

None of these IMO.
You dont think Lake will underperform Trump?

I misread the question. I meant all of them.
Why MI?

MI is more favorable towards Dems downballot and Slotkin seems like a strong candidate.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #6 on: April 01, 2024, 05:19:12 PM »
Poorly designed poll. It should allow you to vote for multiple options.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #7 on: April 01, 2024, 05:34:04 PM »
Probably several, but MN/WI seem most likely on this list.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #8 on: April 01, 2024, 06:09:21 PM »
All, honestly. Minnesota the most
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David Hume
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« Reply #9 on: April 02, 2024, 01:02:54 AM »
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on April 01, 2024, 04:42:46 PM
Quote from: David Hume on April 01, 2024, 04:39:34 PM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on April 01, 2024, 02:20:11 PM
Quote from: David Hume on April 01, 2024, 02:12:09 PM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on April 01, 2024, 01:59:47 PM
Quote from: David Hume on April 01, 2024, 01:52:42 AM
OH and MT are obvious. AZ (Lake) is very likely. NV MI WI PA are not obvious. MI 2020, WI and PA 2016 overperformed. But WI and PA have incumbents. It seems to me the most likely overperformer is MI.
None of these IMO.
You dont think Lake will underperform Trump?

I misread the question. I meant all of them.
Why MI?

MI is more favorable towards Dems downballot and Slotkin seems like a strong candidate.
Jone James over-performed him in 2020.
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Arizona Iced Tea
Minute Maid Juice
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« Reply #10 on: April 02, 2024, 02:59:52 AM »
Quote from: David Hume on April 01, 2024, 02:12:09 PM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on April 01, 2024, 01:59:47 PM
Quote from: David Hume on April 01, 2024, 01:52:42 AM
OH and MT are obvious. AZ (Lake) is very likely. NV MI WI PA are not obvious. MI 2020, WI and PA 2016 overperformed. But WI and PA have incumbents. It seems to me the most likely overperformer is MI.

None of these IMO.
You dont think Lake will underperform Trump?
I think if Trump wins AZ, Lake has decent odds. Kelly only outran Biden in 2020 by 2ish points or so. Biggest issue for Lake though is not that she will underperform Trump, but rather that Trump isn't in a good position to carry Arizona in the first place.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #11 on: April 02, 2024, 10:36:12 AM »
Quote from: David Hume on April 02, 2024, 01:02:54 AM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on April 01, 2024, 04:42:46 PM
Quote from: David Hume on April 01, 2024, 04:39:34 PM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on April 01, 2024, 02:20:11 PM
Quote from: David Hume on April 01, 2024, 02:12:09 PM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on April 01, 2024, 01:59:47 PM
Quote from: David Hume on April 01, 2024, 01:52:42 AM
OH and MT are obvious. AZ (Lake) is very likely. NV MI WI PA are not obvious. MI 2020, WI and PA 2016 overperformed. But WI and PA have incumbents. It seems to me the most likely overperformer is MI.
None of these IMO.
You dont think Lake will underperform Trump?

I misread the question. I meant all of them.
Why MI?

MI is more favorable towards Dems downballot and Slotkin seems like a strong candidate.
Jone James over-performed him in 2020.


2020 was just a better year for the downballot GOP than Trump while 2024 looks to be the opposite.
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David Hume
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« Reply #12 on: April 02, 2024, 11:21:51 AM »
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on April 02, 2024, 10:36:12 AM
Quote from: David Hume on April 02, 2024, 01:02:54 AM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on April 01, 2024, 04:42:46 PM
Quote from: David Hume on April 01, 2024, 04:39:34 PM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on April 01, 2024, 02:20:11 PM
Quote from: David Hume on April 01, 2024, 02:12:09 PM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on April 01, 2024, 01:59:47 PM
Quote from: David Hume on April 01, 2024, 01:52:42 AM
OH and MT are obvious. AZ (Lake) is very likely. NV MI WI PA are not obvious. MI 2020, WI and PA 2016 overperformed. But WI and PA have incumbents. It seems to me the most likely overperformer is MI.
None of these IMO.
You dont think Lake will underperform Trump?

I misread the question. I meant all of them.
Why MI?

MI is more favorable towards Dems downballot and Slotkin seems like a strong candidate.
Jone James over-performed him in 2020.


2020 was just a better year for the downballot GOP than Trump while 2024 looks to be the opposite.
Why? I believe congressional R candidates will massively over perform Trump.
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ultraviolet
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« Reply #13 on: April 02, 2024, 08:09:45 PM »
The ones with D incumbents (MN, PA, AZ, WI, NM) and MI. Not sure about the rest
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SilverStar
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« Reply #14 on: April 02, 2024, 10:11:40 PM »
All exept maybe NM
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