VT-SEN 2024: Bernout?

[Compuzled_One]

It's 2024, and it's unclear what will happen in Vermont-besides that someone socially liberal will win. Sanders has filed paperwork and has been raising and spending a lot of money already for some reason, but hasn't said anything (though he did wait until May in 2018 I believe) and is getting pretty old. A lot of prominent Democrats have urged him to run despite this.

I personally do to think Sanders will likely run again-I doubt someone would raise and spend 30 million to just not run. On the chance he decides to go away and retire, this should be safe Dem unless a socially liberal, fiscally conservative Republican gets nominated.

[President Johnson]

I thought Bernie is already running?

[TML]

According to the Secretary of State's website, the filing deadline for this office is August 8. Thus, Sanders still has plenty of time to officially throw his hat into the ring again, and under current conditions, he would be the clear favorite to win again regardless of when he officially files to run.

[Electric Circus]

There hasn't been an official announcement yet. The general expectation is that he will run again, but I wouldn't be that shocked if he decided against it. There was something about that 32-hour workweek bill that screamed "last hurrah."

It seems like Balint wants to stay in the House and build seniority, so it would be an interesting contest if Sanders didn't want another term. Lots of Democrats in the mix, and maybe some Progressives worth taking at least a little bit seriously. I wouldn't quite call it a "safe" seat for that reason, but it's fair enough to call it safe in terms of the eventual winner's caucus of choice.

Republicans might nominate Scary Eagle Guy again, or, who knows, someone even more out there.

[Compuzled_One]

According to the Secretary of State's website, the filing deadline for this office is August 8. Thus, Sanders still has plenty of time to officially throw his hat into the ring again, and under current conditions, he would be the clear favorite to win again regardless of when he officially files to run.

The one for the Democratic primary (which Sanders has run in every time) is on May 30th, so it should be clear it two months, actually.

[Steve from Lambeth]

We have literally this exact thread already

[Compuzled_One]

Whoops, sorry, didn't see it in the directory.


My title is clearly superior though

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

It's 2024, and it's unclear what will happen in Vermont-besides that someone socially liberal will win. Sanders has filed paperwork and has been raising and spending a lot of money already for some reason, but hasn't said anything (though he did wait until May in 2018 I believe) and is getting pretty old. A lot of prominent Democrats have urged him to run despite this.

I personally do to think Sanders will likely run again-I doubt someone would raise and spend 30 million to just not run. On the chance he decides to go away and retire, this should be safe Dem unless a socially liberal, fiscally conservative Republican gets nominated.

That doesn't fly at the federal level in New England. People like Scott, and Charlie Baker one state south, are only electable at levels where there's no risk of them being a vote for Mitch McConnell or John Thune or whomever as Majority Leader. If the Senate today worked the way it did fifty years ago or even twenty years ago, Scott would be in Leahy's old seat already and Welch would be either in the House still or retired.

[Schiff for Senate]

It's 2024, and it's unclear what will happen in Vermont-besides that someone socially liberal will win. Sanders has filed paperwork and has been raising and spending a lot of money already for some reason, but hasn't said anything (though he did wait until May in 2018 I believe) and is getting pretty old. A lot of prominent Democrats have urged him to run despite this.

I personally do to think Sanders will likely run again-I doubt someone would raise and spend 30 million to just not run. On the chance he decides to go away and retire, this should be safe Dem unless a socially liberal, fiscally conservative Republican gets nominated.

That doesn't fly at the federal level in New England. People like Scott, and Charlie Baker one state south, are only electable at levels where there's no risk of them being a vote for Mitch McConnell or John Thune or whomever as Majority Leader. If the Senate today worked the way it did fifty years ago or even twenty years ago, Scott would be in Leahy's old seat already and Welch would be either in the House still or retired.

Agreed. In this case the exception - Scott Brown - does indeed prove the rule: it was an off-year special election at a time where Democrats had an absolutely rock-solid trifecta. In this case, it's a presidential election year and control for both chambers of Congress is very much in contention.

My title is clearly superior though

It is indeed. Kudos on that.

[Miked0920]

I think Bernie personally runs again, the fact that he hasn't announced yet makes you wonder and its possible he is strongly considering retirement, Im personally skeptical however that he retires.

[Electric Circus]

https://www.sevendaysvt.com/news/sen-bernie-sanders-sits-down-with-seven-days-to-talk-about-aging-vermont-40575031

Here's an interview from Seven Days that demonstrates how Sanders is likely to run again. Sanders has a strong instinct for bread-and-butter issues that matter to swing voters, and this has always been one of his greatest strengths.

Sanders' interest in issues of particular concern to elderly Vermonters dates back to his famous prescription bus runs to Canada. There are always a lot of votes to be won in this group, especially in a state as old as Vermont.

But Vermont is getting even older, and the cost-of-living is growing higher, driven by everything from housing costs, to workforce shortages, to rising state and local taxes. This feeds a cycle that drives working-age people out and leaves the elderly who are struggling to get by with even more difficulty getting housing, health care, and other necessities:

Long a champion for the have-nots, Sanders could have once been described as an underdog himself, until two presidential bids helped transform him into one of the most influential members of Congress. Vermont's senior senator now holds a powerful perch as the chair of the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, or HELP. When he's not dragging in CEOs of major corporations for contentious hearings, Sanders is spending much of his time advocating for people 65 and older, whose ranks are set to grow by some 10,000 nationally each day through 2030. By then, roughly one in four Vermonters will be 65 or older.

If he runs again, which is still the modal expectation, I think he wants to run the score up by a lot. As I hinted at in my last post, the only other candidate to have filed anything with the FEC in this cycle is Scary Eagle Guy, a far-right figure by Vermont standards, who currently has enough cash on hand to buy about half a dozen cans of Heady Topper.

Estimates are seven out of 10 people might need some form of long-term care in their lifetimes. And yet we know the system we have now is not working for many. Labor shortages make it difficult to find workers who can help people age in place. Assisted-living facilities are priced well beyond the means of average Americans, and many end up having to dwindle their savings to qualify. Why hasn't anything been done about this?

People say, "If they only understood." My colleagues in Washington do understand. They're not stupid. They don't give a damn. And that's the point that most Americans don't know.

[Sir Mohamed]

According to the Secretary of State's website, the filing deadline for this office is August 8. Thus, Sanders still has plenty of time to officially throw his hat into the ring again, and under current conditions, he would be the clear favorite to win again regardless of when he officially files to run.

If Sanders were to bow out so late, who would launch a winning campaign so late? For sure it's much easier in a small state like VT, but kicking off a senate bid in June or July, let alone early August, is kind of stunning.

[Lambsbread]

According to the Secretary of State's website, the filing deadline for this office is August 8. Thus, Sanders still has plenty of time to officially throw his hat into the ring again, and under current conditions, he would be the clear favorite to win again regardless of when he officially files to run.

If Sanders were to bow out so late, who would launch a winning campaign so late? For sure it's much easier in a small state like VT, but kicking off a senate bid in June or July, let alone early August, is kind of stunning.

I think Becca Balint would be the natural choice to jump up in if that were the case, but I doubt Sanders doesn't run for re-election.

[Electric Circus]

https://vtdigger.org/2024/04/05/fire-damages-sen-bernie-sanders-burlington-office/

The title of this thread has become an unfortunate pun: Yesterday, an unidentified arsonist set fire to Sanders' district office during work hours:

According to the Burlington Police Department, an unidentified man entered the vestibule outside Sanders’ third-floor office on Church Street at around 10:45 a.m. and sprayed “an apparent accelerant” on the door. The man lit the accelerant, prompting “a significant fire” to engulf Sanders’ office door and a portion of the vestibule, police said in a press release. The man then fled.

The blaze impeded staff members’ egress from the office, police said, “endangering their lives.” The building’s sprinkler system extinguished the fire. Firefighters and police officers evacuated Sanders’ office and those nearby.

CC: BTV crime watch

[MarkD]

We didn't start the fire, it was always burning since the world was turning,...

[Compuzled_One]

https://vtdigger.org/2024/04/05/fire-damages-sen-bernie-sanders-burlington-office/

The title of this thread has become an unfortunate pun: Yesterday, an unidentified arsonist set fire to Sanders' district office during work hours:

According to the Burlington Police Department, an unidentified man entered the vestibule outside Sanders’ third-floor office on Church Street at around 10:45 a.m. and sprayed “an apparent accelerant” on the door. The man lit the accelerant, prompting “a significant fire” to engulf Sanders’ office door and a portion of the vestibule, police said in a press release. The man then fled.

The blaze impeded staff members’ egress from the office, police said, “endangering their lives.” The building’s sprinkler system extinguished the fire. Firefighters and police officers evacuated Sanders’ office and those nearby.

CC: BTV crime watch

Yeesh.