What lessons did you learn from 2022?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

For me:
1) The abortion issue is the closest thing to electoral poison to the GOP if they choose to talk about it.
2) "Polarization" is overrated, candiate quality remains more important than how a district/state votes on a presidential level.
3) Florida is much redder than we think.
4) Low turnout is now detrimental to the GOP's chances due to the new turnout coalitions.
5) "Voting record", is an overrated attack, voters will rate you based off how you behave and campaign, not your spreadsheet from the house floor.
6) Incumbency in house races is much more powerful than I expected.
7) Republicans will struggle massively to win general election races with "weird/unorthodox" (Masters/Walker/Oz tier) candidates.

[Electric Circus]

Trump's persisting appeal to the Republican base was/is underrated, but he's political thalidomide in a general election.

[Spectator]

Candidate quality is the key takeaway here. Take Georgia, which is famously one of the most inelastic states in the country. There was a ten-point difference between the gubernatorial and Senate race margins.

Second would be that I think the GOP is going to be hurting in non-presidential elections now with the new coalitions. Gone are the days where the GOP sweeps the swing states by double digits in a Democratic president's midterm.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Largely agree with OP

With the polarization point, I think polarization is still huge, but perhaps 2020 was peak partisan polarization - ticket splitting seemed a bit better in 2022.

As for the turnout thing, it worked both ways imo, which is why we saw localized blue waves and red waves. In TX and NY for instance, turnout dynamics clearly favored Rs

[Flyersfan232]

For me:
1) The abortion issue is the closest thing to electoral poison to the GOP if they choose to talk about it.
2) "Polarization" is overrated, candiate quality remains more important than how a district/state votes on a presidential level.
3) Florida is much redder than we think.
4) Low turnout is now detrimental to the GOP's chances due to the new turnout coalitions.
5) "Voting record", is an overrated attack, voters will rate you based off how you behave and campaign, not your spreadsheet from the house floor.
6) Incumbency in house races is much more powerful than I expected.
7) Republicans will struggle massively to win general election races with "weird/unorthodox" (Masters/Walker/Oz tier) candidates.

u forgot the most important one that donald j trump is a cancer to our party

[progressive85]

That, like in 2018, the two houses of Congress may go in different directions- that the Senate elections are different from House elections, and also that low presidential poll approval numbers might not be enough to guarantee massive waves for the president's opposition party.

[Del Tachi]

High turnout is here to stay. 

[coloradocowboi]

Second would be that I think the GOP is going to be hurting in non-presidential elections now with the new coalitions. Gone are the days where the GOP sweeps the swing states by double digits in a Democratic president's midterm.

This is my biggest takeaway. Ironically, by branding the Democrats the "elite party" the GOP have delivered them some of the most reliable and most useful voters. 2024 will be a different story because turnout should be relatively high.

But in low turnout elections almost everywhere until coalitions change, the Democrats have gained a kind of unexpected advantage

[Brittain33]

Florida is red, unless Democrats completely fail to show up, and then it’s very red.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's it's a blue wall Eday with Biden at 41% Approvals and Inflation is at 3%, like it is now