Which counties are more gone for the GOP? Loudon/PW vs Cobb/Gwinnett

[Arizona Iced Tea]

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[GAinDC]

Cobb and Gwinnett because they’re actually closer to ATL’s urban core than Loudoun and PW are to DC.  In my opinion, that means they have a stronger Democratic base and are more resistant to GOP wave elections.

Cobb and Gwinnett actually have some density and edge cities whereas the DMV counties are more sprawly and suburban.

However, all are pretty safe Dem.

Source: I grew up near ATL and now live in DC!

[TodayJunior]

The only difference between the two groups is timing. Both have/are trending D at lightning speed. I’m not saying Gwinnett and Cobb are shifting GA blue permanently, but it’s getting on that midnight train (like Virginia). It used to be said the gop couldn’t get to 270 without Virginia. Clearly that’s not the case now, but now it seems Georgia is going to follow the same trajectory, and North Carolina wouldn’t be too far behind either.

[Ragnaroni]

They're both goner than a dodo, if Biden loses Loudon and/or Cobb something REALLY bad is happening

[Smash255]

They're both goner than a dodo, if Biden loses Loudon and/or Cobb something REALLY bad is happening

^^^^This

You can't really say one is more gone than the other as 100% gone is 100% gone period.  Now, if you are talking margins, Loudon/PW still has the larger margin for now, but Gwinnett/Cobb might equal it or surpass it within a couple more cycles.     

[S019]

The ones that started voting Democratic earlier, but Biden is losing badly if he loses any of them.

[Heisenberg]

One thing that hasn't been talked about in this thread, is that the NOVA counties ('Swampburbs') have a much stronger public sector/government engine to their economy. Whereas the Atlanta suburban counties (Gwinnett and Cobb) are your more typical suburbs. I don't think either come back to the Republicans in the foreseeable future given the current trends, but I think the Georgia counties are less gone because not only did they take longer to flip to the Democrats, but because of the 'swamp' factor.

[Del Tachi]

All are pretty Safe D at the presidential level, as mentioned.

I could see Loudoun/PW more likely to vote for a statewide Republican, just because the politics of Virginia could support a Hogan-esque GOP governor while I doubt Georgia is on that trajectory.  Raffensberger still lost both Cobb and Gwinnett in 2022. 

[Yelnoc]

Do those NOVA counties have as larger a Hispanic population as the Atlanta ones? If not, I could see that demographic helping Republicans stay competitive (assuming they continue to move towards Trump).

[Skill and Chance]

Do those NOVA counties have as larger a Hispanic population as the Atlanta ones? If not, I could see that demographic helping Republicans stay competitive (assuming they continue to move towards Trump).

Prince William County is 26% Hispanic as of the 2020 census and Gwinnett County was 23% Hispanic.  Also, Gwinnett is 27% black while Prince William is 22% black.  Loudoun County is about 14% Hispanic and Cobb County is about 15% Hispanic.  Finally, Loudoun County is about 7% black and Cobb County is about 26% black.

Based on this, it seems pretty clear the VA counties would be more likely to flip back at some point.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Using 2018 ACS data and 2020 Census data....

• Prince William County, VA: 38.4% (Non-Hispanic) White, 25.2% Hispanic, 19.7% Black, 10.3% Asian, 40.1% bachelors+ among >25
• Loudoun County, VA: 51.5% (Non-Hispanic) White, 14.2% Hispanic, 7.1% Black, 21.2% Asian, 60.8% bachelors+ among >25

• Gwinnett County, GA: 32.5% (Non-Hispanic) White, 23.0% Hispanic, 26.9% Black, 13.22% Asian, 36.1% bachelors+ among >25
• Cobb County, GA: 48.2% (Non-Hispanic White), 14.5% Hispanic, 26.1% Black, 5.6% Asian, 46.5% bachelors+ among >25

Depends on whether race or educational attainment is more important. The VA counties aren't much more Latino than the GA counties, but they are less Black and more Asian which makes the GOP floor in VA slightly higher when you factor in educational and employment sector-based polarization.

[GAinDC]

2021 VA Gov: R+2
Prince William Margin: D+15 (17 points more D than statewide)
Loudoun Margin: D+11 (+13 points more D than statewide)

2022 GA Gov: R+8
Gwinnett Margin: D+10 (18 points more D than statewide)
Cobb Margin: D+5 (13 points more D than statewide)

Seems Prince William/Gwinnett and Cobb/Loudoun have similar partisan leans relative to their state

[iceman]

both. but Loudoun/PWC is much more goner