Turkey local elections 2024

[Mike88]

Nationwide results, 89.83% counted:

37.3% CHP
35.8% AKP
  6.0% YRP
  5.6% Dem Parti
  4.9% MHP
  3.7% IYI Parti
  6.7% Others

77.6% Turnout

[Mike88]

Erdogan just spoke. For those who understand Turkish, what was the tone of it?

[KaiserDave]

Erdogan just spoke. For those who understand Turkish, what was the tone of it?

Per my Azeri friend, we have lost and we will learn our lesson, or something in the spirit of that.

[Keep Calm and ...]

Some English translation:
https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1774554582326104086

A summery in German (follow the tweets in this thread):
https://twitter.com/AliKaanSevinc/status/1774549865793561048

[KaiserDave]

Is there any explanation for this stunning victory for the CHP/devastating defeat for the AKP?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is there any explanation for this stunning victory for the CHP/devastating defeat for the AKP?

It feels likely Erdogan's image has separated from the AKP's. But that doesn't explain everything.

[icc]

It looks as though the only disappointment(s) for the opposition will be Kırklareli (in European Turkey; an opposition stronghold in national elections) where it appears the Independent mayor will be replaced by the MHP rather than the CHP by ~1% and possibly Hatay (the bit sticking into Syria) which was being defended by the CHP, and was 50/50 in the Presidential election, where the AKP were expected to gain easily and which is completely neck and neck with 97% reported.

[Keep Calm and ...]

CHP is ahead in Hatay now:
Edited: was ahead
https://www.yenisafak.com/en/yerel-secim-2024/hatay-ili-secim-sonuclari
and Kirklareli looks very close:
https://www.yenisafak.com/en/yerel-secim-2024/kirklareli-ili-secim-sonuclari

[Lykaon]

It looks as though the only disappointment(s) for the opposition will be Kırklareli (in European Turkey; an opposition stronghold in national elections) where it appears the Independent mayor will be replaced by the MHP rather than the CHP by ~1% and possibly Hatay (the bit sticking into Syria) which was being defended by the CHP and was 50/50 in the Presidential election where the AKP were expected to gain easily and which is completely neck and neck with 97% reported.

I’m confused about that one too. It has the whole province market for MHP because of Kirklareli. But just to it’s south is a bigger city LÜLEBURGAZ; which has the CHP dominating and still has outstanding ballots. The province should probably be for the CHP off Lüleburgaz alone. Is the map based solely off the capitals of the provinces and disregarding the rest?

Kirklareli city has MHP with a 400 vote lead. But Lüleburgaz has CHP with a 18000 vote lead over AKP. MHP didn’t even seriously contest most of the cities in that province

[Logical]

It looks as though the only disappointment(s) for the opposition will be Kırklareli (in European Turkey; an opposition stronghold in national elections) where it appears the Independent mayor will be replaced by the MHP rather than the CHP by ~1% and possibly Hatay (the bit sticking into Syria) which was being defended by the CHP and was 50/50 in the Presidential election where the AKP were expected to gain easily and which is completely neck and neck with 97% reported.

I’m confused about that one too. It has the whole province market for MHP because of Kirklareli. But just to it’s south is a bigger city LÜLEBURGAZ; which has the CHP dominating and still has outstanding ballots. The province should probably be for the CHP off Lüleburgaz alone. Is the map based solely off the capitals of the provinces and disregarding the rest?

Kirklareli city has MHP with a 400 vote lead. But Lüleburgaz has CHP with a 18000 vote lead over AKP. MHP didn’t even seriously contest most of the cities in that province

Quick explanation of how Turkish local government works. There are two types of first tier local government, Metro Municipalities and Regular Provinces. Metro Municipalities have greater powers and elect a Mayor. Regular Provinces have little power and is mostly administrative/ceremonial.
When they color a result from a Regular Province in the national map, they mean only the result in the Provincial capital (which always shares the name of the province).

As to why CHP is losing in Kirklareli? The incumbent mayor is rather unpopular, it's a local election and these things still mater.

[Oryxslayer]

It's complicated. In 30 provinces there is a metropolitan mayor who gets elected by the entire area, in addition to the district/city level mayors. In the rest the linked results page defaults to the capital city district which is not exactly the best representation. The provincial assembly is province-wide, so might be a better estimate.

Edit: I got sniped.

[icc]

It is definitely looking like Hatay is going to be an AKP gain from CHP against the trend . For anyone looking for answers why: https://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewPodcast?id=1734425593&i=1000648553042

[Lykaon]

It looks as though the only disappointment(s) for the opposition will be Kırklareli (in European Turkey; an opposition stronghold in national elections) where it appears the Independent mayor will be replaced by the MHP rather than the CHP by ~1% and possibly Hatay (the bit sticking into Syria) which was being defended by the CHP and was 50/50 in the Presidential election where the AKP were expected to gain easily and which is completely neck and neck with 97% reported.

I’m confused about that one too. It has the whole province market for MHP because of Kirklareli. But just to it’s south is a bigger city LÜLEBURGAZ; which has the CHP dominating and still has outstanding ballots. The province should probably be for the CHP off Lüleburgaz alone. Is the map based solely off the capitals of the provinces and disregarding the rest?

Kirklareli city has MHP with a 400 vote lead. But Lüleburgaz has CHP with a 18000 vote lead over AKP. MHP didn’t even seriously contest most of the cities in that province

Quick explanation of how Turkish local government works. There are two types of first tier local government, Metro Municipalities and Regular Provinces. Metro Municipalities have greater powers and elect a Mayor. Regular Provinces have no power and is mostly administrative/ceremonial.
When they color a result from a Regular Province in the national map, they mean only the result in the Provincial capital (which always shares the name of the province).

As to why CHP is losing in Kirklareli? The incumbent mayor is rather unpopular, it's a local election and these things still mater.

Gotcha! So ignore the provinces and go by municipality numbers? Looks like it’ll be a decent side project for me this week to compile all the data. I’ve been unable to find a map that tallies up the combined municipal votes for the provinces in a convenient way.

Though with most of the vote in, it’s good to see the CHP winning big in the growing/heavily populated areas. A solidly pro-European Turkey would be a great thing for the Democratic world as well as for Turkey itself; especially if they can further integrate into the European economy. I think a good economy and upward mobility can nip the islamists in the arse

[Mike88]

Nationwide results, 97.06% counted:

37.6% CHP
35.6% AKP
  6.1% YRP
  5.6% Dem Parti
  4.9% MHP
  3.8% IYI Parti
  1.6% ZP
  1.1% SP
  3.7% Others

78.2% Turnout

Istanbul, 97.66% counted:

51.0% CHP
39.7% AKP
  2.4% YRP
  2.0% Dem Parti
  1.8% ZP
  3.1% Others

78.8% Turnout

Ankara, 95.31% counted:

60.1% CHP
31.9% AKP
  2.8% YRP
  1.3% ZP
  3.9% Others

78.7% Turnout

İzmir, 97.46% counted:

48.8% CHP
37.2% AKP
  4.0% Dem Parti
  3.6% IYI Parti
  2.1% ZP
  4.3% Others

78.4% Turnout

Hatay, 99.36% counted:

44.5% AKP
43.9% CHP
  2.6% YRP
  2.0% TIP
  1.8% IYI Parti
  1.2% ZP
  1.1% Dem Parti
  2.9% Others

75.6% Turnout

[Logical]

It looks as though the only disappointment(s) for the opposition will be Kırklareli (in European Turkey; an opposition stronghold in national elections) where it appears the Independent mayor will be replaced by the MHP rather than the CHP by ~1% and possibly Hatay (the bit sticking into Syria) which was being defended by the CHP and was 50/50 in the Presidential election where the AKP were expected to gain easily and which is completely neck and neck with 97% reported.

I’m confused about that one too. It has the whole province market for MHP because of Kirklareli. But just to it’s south is a bigger city LÜLEBURGAZ; which has the CHP dominating and still has outstanding ballots. The province should probably be for the CHP off Lüleburgaz alone. Is the map based solely off the capitals of the provinces and disregarding the rest?

Kirklareli city has MHP with a 400 vote lead. But Lüleburgaz has CHP with a 18000 vote lead over AKP. MHP didn’t even seriously contest most of the cities in that province

Quick explanation of how Turkish local government works. There are two types of first tier local government, Metro Municipalities and Regular Provinces. Metro Municipalities have greater powers and elect a Mayor. Regular Provinces have no power and is mostly administrative/ceremonial.
When they color a result from a Regular Province in the national map, they mean only the result in the Provincial capital (which always shares the name of the province).

As to why CHP is losing in Kirklareli? The incumbent mayor is rather unpopular, it's a local election and these things still mater.

Gotcha! So ignore the provinces and go by municipality numbers? Looks like it’ll be a decent side project for me this week to compile all the data. I’ve been unable to find a map that tallies up the combined municipal votes for the provinces in a convenient way.

Though with most of the vote in, it’s good to see the CHP winning big in the growing/heavily populated areas. A solidly pro-European Turkey would be a great thing for the Democratic world as well as for Turkey itself; especially if they can further integrate into the European economy. I think a good economy and upward mobility can nip the islamists in the arse

Some sites that may help
https://secim.aa.com.tr/
https://haberturk.com/secim/secim2024/yerel-secim
https://secim.cnnturk.com/31-mart-2024-yerel-secimleri/secim-sonuclari/
https://secim.trthaber.com/?is_external_url=true

Some clarification on the electoral system
In Metropolitan Municipalities, voters get 4 ballots
-Metropolitan Mayor
-District Mayor
-District Council
-Neighborhood Leader

In Regular Provinces, voters also get 4 ballots
-Provincial Council
-District Mayor
-District Council
-Neighborhood/Village Chief

The results of of Metropolitan Mayor elections and Provincial Council elections are combined to produce national results. However, the color used to paint Regular Provinces in national maps is the color of the party that wins in the Provincial Capital. This creates confusion and may give wrong impressions of how strong a party is in a particular place.

Metropolitan Municipalities have councils too but they are indirectly elected from election results of all district municipalities in the province.

[Lykaon]

It looks as though the only disappointment(s) for the opposition will be Kırklareli (in European Turkey; an opposition stronghold in national elections) where it appears the Independent mayor will be replaced by the MHP rather than the CHP by ~1% and possibly Hatay (the bit sticking into Syria) which was being defended by the CHP and was 50/50 in the Presidential election where the AKP were expected to gain easily and which is completely neck and neck with 97% reported.

I’m confused about that one too. It has the whole province market for MHP because of Kirklareli. But just to it’s south is a bigger city LÜLEBURGAZ; which has the CHP dominating and still has outstanding ballots. The province should probably be for the CHP off Lüleburgaz alone. Is the map based solely off the capitals of the provinces and disregarding the rest?

Kirklareli city has MHP with a 400 vote lead. But Lüleburgaz has CHP with a 18000 vote lead over AKP. MHP didn’t even seriously contest most of the cities in that province

Quick explanation of how Turkish local government works. There are two types of first tier local government, Metro Municipalities and Regular Provinces. Metro Municipalities have greater powers and elect a Mayor. Regular Provinces have little power and is mostly administrative/ceremonial.
When they color a result from a Regular Province in the national map, they mean only the result in the Provincial capital (which always shares the name of the province).

As to why CHP is losing in Kirklareli? The incumbent mayor is rather unpopular, it's a local election and these things still mater.

Looks like Kirklareli just swung big back to the CHP
CHP 51
AKP 23
MHP 11

[Logical]

It looks as though the only disappointment(s) for the opposition will be Kırklareli (in European Turkey; an opposition stronghold in national elections) where it appears the Independent mayor will be replaced by the MHP rather than the CHP by ~1% and possibly Hatay (the bit sticking into Syria) which was being defended by the CHP and was 50/50 in the Presidential election where the AKP were expected to gain easily and which is completely neck and neck with 97% reported.

I’m confused about that one too. It has the whole province market for MHP because of Kirklareli. But just to it’s south is a bigger city LÜLEBURGAZ; which has the CHP dominating and still has outstanding ballots. The province should probably be for the CHP off Lüleburgaz alone. Is the map based solely off the capitals of the provinces and disregarding the rest?

Kirklareli city has MHP with a 400 vote lead. But Lüleburgaz has CHP with a 18000 vote lead over AKP. MHP didn’t even seriously contest most of the cities in that province

Quick explanation of how Turkish local government works. There are two types of first tier local government, Metro Municipalities and Regular Provinces. Metro Municipalities have greater powers and elect a Mayor. Regular Provinces have little power and is mostly administrative/ceremonial.
When they color a result from a Regular Province in the national map, they mean only the result in the Provincial capital (which always shares the name of the province).

As to why CHP is losing in Kirklareli? The incumbent mayor is rather unpopular, it's a local election and these things still mater.

Looks like Kirklareli just swung big back to the CHP
CHP 51
AKP 23
MHP 11

That's the result for the Provincial Council of Kirklareli. Confusing I know.

[Oryxslayer]

Something that shouldn't be lost here is that the national-religious coalition that has kept Erdogan in power still exists. Even in these elections it is very much present and still dominant in much of the interior where it always gets absurd support from the electorate. What has changed is that this coalition was more divided in these elections than at any time in recent memory. Obviously the AKP competes against their MHP allies in these type of contests, with the MHP in the past often serving as their sole opposition in many rural and/or religious areas. Also in this boat of competing allies are other smaller parties like the BBP, but the MHP is the largest.

But now in addition to the MHP there is the New Welfare Party/YRP/Yeniden Refah which cut deep into this coalition, even winning one of the 30 Metropolitan Mayors. Obviously some of this is cause of current Middle Eastern events, but many national-religious voters opting for the opposition to the right of the AKP divided their vote and at times allowed other parties to slip into first place. This fragmenting might be a direct result of Erdogan's announced retirement: those who always were less satisfied but okay with the AKP now now have nothing stopping them from seeking the party they have more enthusiasm for.

[Hnv1]

Bad day for iYi it seems

[Oliver]

Where can I find any information about the local electoral system?

Is there still a 10% or a 7% threshold? Are parties allowed to enter elections as coalitions in order to bypass the electoral threshold?

Where can I find the results of the council / assembly elections? I'm also interested in the distribution of seats in the new Istanbul city assembly.

There are only results of mayoral elections on this website: https://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/31-mart-yerel-secim-sonuclari

[PSOL]

Nazis defined strictly and Islamists are still ~50%

[Keep Calm and ...]

The results of of Metropolitan Mayor elections and Provincial Council elections are combined to produce national results. ..

Here:
https://www.yenisafak.com/en/yerel-secim-2024/secim-sonuclari

Local/council results?
https://www.yenisafak.com/en/yerel-secim-2024/meclis-secim-sonuclari

Am I right?

[TimeUnit2027]

Nazis defined strictly and Islamists are still ~50%

?

[S019]

I wonder when was the last time that the CHP performed better in an election in Istanbul than in Izmir. Anyway, it is nice to see Erdogan and the AKP rebuked so strongly.

[Logical]

Where can I find any information about the local electoral system?

Is there still a 10% or a 7% threshold? Are parties allowed to enter elections as coalitions in order to bypass the electoral threshold?

Where can I find the results of the council / assembly elections? I'm also interested in the distribution of seats in the new Istanbul city assembly.

There are only results of mayoral elections on this website: https://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/31-mart-yerel-secim-sonuclari

No thresholds for local councils, but given the average council size is <20, there is a natural threshold of 5-7% to win a seat.
Results for Provincial Councils here : https://www.yenisafak.com/en/yerel-secim-2024/meclis-secim-sonuclari
Number of seats each party wins will be determined later by the Supreme Election Council when the results are finalized.

The results of of Metropolitan Mayor elections and Provincial Council elections are combined to produce national results. ..

Here:
https://www.yenisafak.com/en/yerel-secim-2024/secim-sonuclari

Local/council results?
https://www.yenisafak.com/en/yerel-secim-2024/meclis-secim-sonuclari

Am I right?

Correct