Turkey local elections 2024

[Mike88]

Created this thread as I haven't found one. The elections are on Sunday, 31 March 2024.

Anyone has any insights on how the campaign went and if Erdogan could lose more ground, compared with 2019, due to the economic crisis in Turkey?

[icc]

The opposition alliance has fractured, and there’s a danger that the AKP could gain a few municipalities (e.g. Antalya, Hatay) due to this. In terms of the two major prizes, the CHP look favoured to hold onto Ankara, whilst Istanbul will be a nailbiter. Imamoglu (CHP) has led the vast majority of recent polls, but by very small margins - a repeat of the unwelcome surprise in the Presidential election last year is certainly a possibility.

[Mike88]

The opposition alliance has fractured, and there’s a danger that the AKP could gain a few municipalities (e.g. Antalya, Hatay) due to this. In terms of the two major prizes, the CHP look favoured to hold onto Ankara, whilst Istanbul will be a nailbiter. Imamoglu (CHP) has led the vast majority of recent polls, but by very small margins - a repeat of the unwelcome surprise in the Presidential election last year is certainly a possibility.

Thanks for the insight. The Turkish wiki page has a good summary of opinion polls by city:

2024 Türkiye yerel seçimleri için yapılan anketler

[TheReckoning]

The opposition alliance has fractured, and there’s a danger that the AKP could gain a few municipalities (e.g. Antalya, Hatay) due to this. In terms of the two major prizes, the CHP look favoured to hold onto Ankara, whilst Istanbul will be a nailbiter. Imamoglu (CHP) has led the vast majority of recent polls, but by very small margins - a repeat of the unwelcome surprise in the Presidential election last year is certainly a possibility.

Why is the AKP far more competitive in Urban areas than most right wing parties?

[icc]

The opposition alliance has fractured, and there’s a danger that the AKP could gain a few municipalities (e.g. Antalya, Hatay) due to this. In terms of the two major prizes, the CHP look favoured to hold onto Ankara, whilst Istanbul will be a nailbiter. Imamoglu (CHP) has led the vast majority of recent polls, but by very small margins - a repeat of the unwelcome surprise in the Presidential election last year is certainly a possibility.

Why is the AKP far more competitive in Urban areas than most right wing parties?

Well, firstly, it isn’t. The Republicans are not ‘most right wing parties’, and are in fact exceptional in their lack of appeal to urban dwellers (obviously also an artefact of the US’s particular demographics).

When it comes to Turkey more specifically, I’d look at the general patterns of who votes AKP / CHP / HDP (or whatever Kurdish party is currently allowable). Once you control for those demographics, the city by city results become fairly comprehensible.

[Oryxslayer]

The opposition alliance has fractured, and there’s a danger that the AKP could gain a few municipalities (e.g. Antalya, Hatay) due to this. In terms of the two major prizes, the CHP look favoured to hold onto Ankara, whilst Istanbul will be a nailbiter. Imamoglu (CHP) has led the vast majority of recent polls, but by very small margins - a repeat of the unwelcome surprise in the Presidential election last year is certainly a possibility.

Why is the AKP far more competitive in Urban areas than most right wing parties?

Well, firstly, it isn’t. The Republicans are not ‘most right wing parties’, and are in fact exceptional in their lack of appeal to urban dwellers (obviously also an artefact of the US’s particular demographics).

When it comes to Turkey more specifically, I’d look at the general patterns of who votes AKP / CHP / HDP (or whatever Kurdish party is currently allowable). Once you control for those demographics, the city by city results become fairly comprehensible.

Also, when we discuss urban areas, Istanbul too large to ignore. Something like 15.5 Million or a little under 20% of the national population, the largest urban area by far in Europe. The City (reminder some historical groups called it that cause nothing compared) has always been a magnet for economic power, which has always attracted internal migrants. This makes Istanbul a massive snapshot of the entire country, with many different communities in many different neighborhoods. That is not like most cities, even other centralizing ones like London.

[It's not just that you are a crook senator]

The opposition alliance has fractured, and there’s a danger that the AKP could gain a few municipalities (e.g. Antalya, Hatay) due to this. In terms of the two major prizes, the CHP look favoured to hold onto Ankara, whilst Istanbul will be a nailbiter. Imamoglu (CHP) has led the vast majority of recent polls, but by very small margins - a repeat of the unwelcome surprise in the Presidential election last year is certainly a possibility.

Why is the AKP far more competitive in Urban areas than most right wing parties?

Well, firstly, it isn’t. The Republicans are not ‘most right wing parties’, and are in fact exceptional in their lack of appeal to urban dwellers (obviously also an artefact of the US’s particular demographics).

When it comes to Turkey more specifically, I’d look at the general patterns of who votes AKP / CHP / HDP (or whatever Kurdish party is currently allowable). Once you control for those demographics, the city by city results become fairly comprehensible.

Also, when we discuss urban areas, Istanbul too large to ignore. Something like 15.5 Million or a little under 20% of the national population, the largest urban area by far in Europe. The City (reminder some historical groups called it that cause nothing compared) has always been a magnet for economic power, which has always attracted internal migrants. This makes Istanbul a massive snapshot of the entire country, with many different communities in many different neighborhoods. That is not like most cities, even other centralizing ones like London.

Accurate.

Also, I would pay no mind to the polls, they are all extremely inaccurate and only reflect the wishes of the parties they are paid by.

Voting for Ekrem İmamoğlu, CHP for district mayor, and TİP for district council.

[icc]

Results becoming to come through: https://www.yenisafak.com/en/yerel-secim-2024/secim-sonuclari

[Logical]

Stronger than expected results for CHP. Perhaps the Sultan must delay his retirement.

[icc]

Looking good for them ATM, but still early.

[icc]

With 22% counted the CHP are actually leading nationally. The Welfare Party are doing relatively well, which is hurting the AKP.

[Logical]

Shockingly good victory for CHP. They've decisively beaten the AKP in major metros. They're winning in very conservative interior Anatolian provinces like Adiyaman, Kilis and Kirikkale. Was kicking out the Alevi all they needed to do to start winning again?

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

47.6% in, looking like a smashing victory for the opposition. Istanbul currently delivering İmamoğlu a 9-point margin that looks likely to stay steady as the current returns are mixed between pro-opposition and pro-AKP areas.

[Mike88]

52.72% counted:

37.8% CHP
36.8% AKP
  5.9% Dem Parti
  5.3% RP
  3.8% MHP
  3.3% IYI Parti
  7.1% Others

These results are beyond surprising. Wow!!

[Oryxslayer]

Shockingly good victory for CHP. They've decisively beaten the AKP in major metros. They're winning in very conservative interior Anatolian provinces like Adiyaman, Kilis and Kirikkale. Was kicking out the Alevi all they needed to do to start winning again?

I would say there's two specific factors at play, perhaps just one, but more likely some combination of the two.

First, it's no secret that there was 'fudging' when it comes to the national government election, with actions that would be illegal in many countries boosting the AKP. Maybe not direct ballot box stuffing,  but certainly a hostile environment for the Opposition. Such a situation is is not replicable for these contests. So one might say this result is closer to a free and fair uninfluenced measurement of the country.

Second, when a strongman leader has been in power for a long time,  their brand can easily separate from their party's image. As long as the strongman maintains appearances they could remain popular even as their government isn't.  Modi is another example of how he carries the BJP nationally way above the 50-50 or worse suggested by local elections. So in this situation,  Erdogan announcing his eventual retirement really did dynamite the AKPs electoral foundation. 

Also I suspect just general off-year things,  when certain voters have more motivation than others.

[icc]

The CHP have just taken the lead in Hatay with 60% counted, which was thought to be a dead cert AKP gain.

[Logical]

Aksener finally resigns as IYI leader after an embarrassing performance. Ultranationalists of all stripes (MHP and its offshoots) did poorly tonight.
This election offers a glimpse of what post-Erdogan politics may look like. The ultranationalists will likely continue to decline, in its place hardline Islamists (YRP, HÜDA PAR) have grown. Future Presidential elections will be determined by how the Kurds and hardline Islamists swing.
Finally, the results validate my belief that Imamoglu would've won in 2023 (at least if the results weren't fudged).

[icc]

Aksener finally resigns as IYI leader after an embarrassing performance. Ultranationalists of all stripes (MHP and it's offshoots) did poorly tonight.
This election offers a glimpse of what post-Erdogan politics may look like. The ultranationalists will likely continue to decline, in its place hardline Islamists (YRP, HÜDA PAR) have grown. Future Presidential elections will be determined by how the Kurds and hardline Islamists swing.
Finally, the results validate my belief that Imamoglu would've won in 2023.

It seems to me that MHP are doing alright?

[Logical]

Aksener finally resigns as IYI leader after an embarrassing performance. Ultranationalists of all stripes (MHP and it's offshoots) did poorly tonight.
This election offers a glimpse of what post-Erdogan politics may look like. The ultranationalists will likely continue to decline, in its place hardline Islamists (YRP, HÜDA PAR) have grown. Future Presidential elections will be determined by how the Kurds and hardline Islamists swing.
Finally, the results validate my belief that Imamoglu would've won in 2023.

It seems to me that MHP are doing alright?

Their vote has halved. From 7.3% to 3.6%.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

why is New Welfare/Y Refah not included in the People's Alliance on the "electoral alliance" page? Everything I see says they're part of it.

[jaichind]

[Logical]

why is New Welfare/Y Refah not included in the People's Alliance on the "electoral alliance" page? Everything I see says they're part of it.

Because they quit the Alliance and are running on their own. They attack Erdogan from the right and use the I/P conflict as a rallying issue.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

why is New Welfare/Y Refah not included in the People's Alliance on the "electoral alliance" page? Everything I see says they're part of it.

Because they quit the Alliance and are running on their own. They attack Erdogan from the right and use the I/P conflict as a rallying issue.

I guess Wikipedia hasn't updated on that then.

[icc]

Aksener finally resigns as IYI leader after an embarrassing performance. Ultranationalists of all stripes (MHP and it's offshoots) did poorly tonight.
This election offers a glimpse of what post-Erdogan politics may look like. The ultranationalists will likely continue to decline, in its place hardline Islamists (YRP, HÜDA PAR) have grown. Future Presidential elections will be determined by how the Kurds and hardline Islamists swing.
Finally, the results validate my belief that Imamoglu would've won in 2023.

It seems to me that MHP are doing alright?

Their vote has halved. From 7.3% to 3.6%.

Interesting - from skimming the results I got the feeling they were holding up better than the AKP.

[Flyersfan232]

Aksener finally resigns as IYI leader after an embarrassing performance. Ultranationalists of all stripes (MHP and its offshoots) did poorly tonight.
This election offers a glimpse of what post-Erdogan politics may look like. The ultranationalists will likely continue to decline, in its place hardline Islamists (YRP, HÜDA PAR) have grown. Future Presidential elections will be determined by how the Kurds and hardline Islamists swing.
Finally, the results validate my belief that Imamoglu would've won in 2023 (at least if the results weren't fudged).

what?