How did Georgia leapfrog NC to the left?

[GAinDC]

For many years, North Carolina was considered a tossup, while Georgia was stubbornly R-leaning.

How and why did the state leap to the left in 2020, surpassing NC as the top southern swing state?

It seems like it happened fast. Keep in mind both states are growing at about the same rate!

[wnwnwn]

NC appalachia has been trending to the right, as the Lumbee has also done.

[GAinDC]

NC appalachia has been trending to the right, as the Lumbee has also done.

That may be a factor, but I don’t think it explains it

[Annatar]

Higher black vote, in NC black share is 20% vs white share of 70%, in GA, its 30% black vs 60% white, if blacks vote 90-10 for the dems, GOP needs to win the white vote by 26% in NC or 63-37 to offset it. In GA they need to win the white vote by 45%, something like 73-27.

What has happened is the white vote in GA has gotten a bit more like NC and unlike the rest of the deep south, its gone from 75-25 to more like 70-30 which makes GA harder for Republicans.

[Vice President Christian Man]

Suburban Atlanta racing left

[Arizona Iced Tea]

A lot of good points about demographics, but its worth a post about the state parties as well.

One thing worth noting is the NC GOP is arguably one of, if not the best Republican party in the country. After Obama narrowly flipped the historically reliable state, Kay Hagan won the Senate seat, Dems had the statewide trifecta, and congressional delegation many wrote the state off as gone for the GOP after 2008. The party was able succesfully salvage the state and manage to keep it at a stubbornly R lean although it was no longer voting double digits like it did in the 2000s. But they've had a lot of practice winning competitive races in 2010's every cycle so they were able to find an operation that worked for them before it became too late. You are seeing the VA GOP starting to find their rythmn now too but the damage is done already.

The GA GOP on the other hand was incredibly complacent. They never anticipated the state to fall so quickly and even once it did, they lacked a bench to reclaim ground. Additionally, while Kemp defeated Trump backed Perdue, it caused friction within the party and more disfunction is never good.

[Electric Circus]

The states represent a similar number of electoral votes, but the Atlanta metro area is over twice the size of North Carolina's largest.

Between 2004 and 2020, Democrats more than doubled their votes in the Atlanta metro counties. Republicans gained votes there too, but Democrats outpaced them by more than 4:1.

Charlotte has grown a lot over the past couple of decades, but Atlanta's population gain over the same period is similar to Charlotte's total population.

Democrats have also lost a lot of votes in smaller metro areas. This is what stands out to me when I compare Obama's performance in North Carolina to Biden's. Biden has gained votes in the bigger metros, but he's losing a lot around the smaller cities. The rural shifts don't help, but they would otherwise be overwhelmed by just a couple of the largest counties.

[GAinDC]

The states represent a similar number of electoral votes, but the Atlanta metro area is over twice the size of North Carolina's largest.

Between 2004 and 2020, Democrats more than doubled their votes in the Atlanta metro counties. Republicans gained votes there too, but Democrats outpaced them by more than 4:1.

Charlotte has grown a lot over the past couple of decades, but Atlanta's population gain over the same period is similar to Charlotte's total population.

Democrats have also lost a lot of votes in smaller metro areas. This is what stands out to me when I compare Obama's performance in North Carolina to Biden's. Biden has gained votes in the bigger metros, but he's losing a lot around the smaller cities. The rural shifts don't help, but they would otherwise be overwhelmed by just a couple of the largest counties.

Very good points. And actually, Metro Atlanta is around 3 times the size of the largest metro entirely in NC since much of the Charlotte region is in South Carolina. So that nets a lot more votes for Dems in Georgia since ATL’s urban core is so much larger.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

North Carolina's migration is very different than Georgia's.  First, North Carolina has a lot of coast, attracting retirees, while Georgia actually has very little Atlantic coast (and much of that isn't even beachy).  Second, Charlotte attracts a different sort of transplant than Atlanta does because the former is so heavily focused on banking and finance.  Sure, the Triangle gets liberal transplants, but it's just not big enough to dominate the state.

[ReaganLimbaugh]

The GA GOP on the other hand was incredibly complacent. They never anticipated the state to fall so quickly and even once it did, they lacked a bench to reclaim ground. Additionally, while Kemp defeated Trump backed Perdue, it caused friction within the party and more disfunction is never good.

----The GA GOP on the other hand was incredibly complacent. They never anticipated the state to fall so quickly and even once it did, they lacked a bench to reclaim ground.*****

*The above is what really happened.

[Pres Mike]

1.Republicans maxed out in rural Georgia. Republicans still have some to gain in rural North Carolina

2. Native American reservations are moving right, which are a bigger presence in NC

3. Transplants are older in NC

4. Atlanta growing far faster than Raleigh. It was already much larger.

5. The black political community in Atlanta already being highly organized

[Del Tachi]

Atlanta is a different type of metro than Charlotte or Raleigh, and there still being room for Democrats to fall in rural NC for most of the 2010s.

[MarkD]

Political activism, including growing the Democratic base, by Stacey Abrams.

[ReaganLimbaugh]

Stacy Abrams may be able to answer that question pretty well.

[GAinDC]

Stacy Abrams may be able to answer that question pretty well.

It really wasn’t all her