What could be the “surprise” of this election

[MR DARK BRANDON]

In 2016 atp nobody expected Trump to win by flipping the rust belt

In 2020 atp nobody expected Georgia to be won by Biden much less vote to the left of Florida/NC.

What could be the “surprise” of this cycle?

[7,052,770]

I'm not predicting this, but Biden winning Florida is a candidate for a "surprise" result, something that no one sees coming at the time but kinda makes sense in hindsight like your 2020 and 2016 examples.

They voted for Biden to be VP twice, and it's not like Trump won it handily either time. Plus they're in the 6 year itch of a divisive and controversial governor who just majorly flopped on the national scene. And the demographics where Biden has improved the most in "polls" (who knows how valid those are) seems to be Jews and white seniors. Finally, the Florida Democratic Party has hit rock bottom and will have to start improving by default because they can't possibly sink any lower.

I think Trump still probably takes it, but it's not hard to plot out a scenario for Biden

[Mechavada]

Nevada.  It is pretty unpredictable right now how this state will actually vote.  And when it does vote (for either side) it will be considered a "surprise".

[mjba257]

Possible contenders:
- RFK winning a state
- MN flipping red
- Biden winning NC
- A substantial rightward swing in a blue state (like CA, NY, NJ, IL)
- RFK getting over 10% in the NPV
- No candidate gets to 270
- Election comes down to one state being decided by an astronomically close margin (a la 2000)

[Rand]

Kennedy wins. During his victory speech be rips off his face revealing Hillary Clinton underneath. She laughs maniacally as the glass ceiling shatters and she floats like Baron Harkonnen over the planet she now rules.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Biden flipping NC but losing GA

[Del Tachi]

Biden refusing to concede and supporting an electoral challenge after losing to Trump.

[dspNY]

In favor of Republicans: NY and NJ are high single digit races

In favor of Democrats: Texas is within 3 points (it swung more left than the country in 2020)

[Agonized-Statism]

Probably an unexpectedly good performance for Biden in Arizona, even as he does worse nationwide than in 2020.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Trump wins the popular vote.

[dspNY]

Another possible surprise in favor of Democrats: voters of Eastern European descent who are conservative swing away from Trump because he sucks up to Putin and wants Putin to conquer Ukraine

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump wins the popular vote.

Lol Rs haven't won the popular vote since 2004 in a Prez Eday obviously, NC was expected to move right and so is FL but Debbie Powell and NC are very close.

Steve Konaki said NC and FL are still swing states, I am keeping an eye out in FL Debbie Powell is only 3 down this was the same place Christ was at before IAN against DeSantis

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Biden refusing to concede and supporting an electoral challenge after losing to Trump.

This is underrated honestly especially if the race is very close. I don't think they will do something on Jan 6 but I could see his team meeting with electors to throw it to the house and try to select a non-Trump Republican rather than reinstate Biden.

[Del Tachi]

Biden refusing to concede and supporting an electoral challenge after losing to Trump.

This is underrated honestly especially if the race is very close. I don't think they will do something on Jan 6 but I could see his team meeting with electors to throw it to the house and try to select a non-Trump Republican rather than reinstate Biden.

More likely Democrats will just parrot their favorite lines since forever (i.e., "election interference! voter suppression!") as the rationale for challenging Trump's legal win.  Of course, the mainstream media and red avatar mafia will put in overtime saying It's (D)ifferent!

How serious it gets depends on how close the results are otherwise.  Trump's win coming down to less than 5k-10k votes in a single state is close enough that a D House may actually reject his victory.

[John Dule]

Biden refusing to concede and supporting an electoral challenge after losing to Trump.

This is underrated honestly especially if the race is very close. I don't think they will do something on Jan 6 but I could see his team meeting with electors to throw it to the house and try to select a non-Trump Republican rather than reinstate Biden.

More likely Democrats will just parrot their favorite lines since forever (i.e., "election interference! voter suppression!") as the rationale for challenging Trump's legal win.  Of course, the mainstream media and red avatar mafia will put in overtime saying It's (D)ifferent!

How serious it gets depends on how close the results are otherwise.  Trump's win coming down to less than 5k-10k votes in a single state is close enough that a D House may actually reject his victory.

Boy oh boy that sure would be bad if it happened the way you imagined it. If only we had a real-life example of something like this occurring for you to get mad about instead

[Eraserhead]

Another pandemic?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Biden refusing to concede and supporting an electoral challenge after losing to Trump.

This is underrated honestly especially if the race is very close. I don't think they will do something on Jan 6 but I could see his team meeting with electors to throw it to the house and try to select a non-Trump Republican rather than reinstate Biden.

More likely Democrats will just parrot their favorite lines since forever (i.e., "election interference! voter suppression!") as the rationale for challenging Trump's legal win.  Of course, the mainstream media and red avatar mafia will put in overtime saying It's (D)ifferent!

How serious it gets depends on how close the results are otherwise.  Trump's win coming down to less than 5k-10k votes in a single state is close enough that a D House may actually reject his victory.

The projection is strong in this exchange! Excellent trolling you two. Bravo!

[forza nocta]

Biden winning Texas, Florida and Alaska

[quesaisje]

1. One of the candidates is revealed to have concealed a health condition.
2. Eagleton-esque VP switchout becomes necessary after Trump announces his running mage.
3. Harris gets ahead of her skis (most likely on Israel) and the drama between her camp and Biden's becomes at least somewhat public.
4. One of the candidates is hospitalized for multiple nights.
5. Trump's SPAC is revealed to have direct financial ties to the CCP.
6. Some group of prominent Republicans who have remained aligned with Trump until now are pushed over the edge and unendorse the ticket.
7. Foreign policy crisis has a significant effect on the race. Take your pick: Israel invades Lebanon, China shoots more than water cannons at Filipino ships, Russia does something especially provocative to a Baltic NATO ally, a significant terrorist attack happens on US soil or targeting Americans elsewhere, etc.

[President Johnson]

Trump winning Minnesota or New Hampshire. I don't think Nevada would be such a huge surprise. And of course Biden winning Texas.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Kennedy wins. During his victory speech be rips off his face revealing Hillary Clinton underneath. She laughs maniacally as the glass ceiling shatters and she floats like Baron Harkonnen over the planet she now rules.

I would be okay with that.

[Mechavada]

Not sure if this is a "surprise" per se but whoever loses will cry like a little bitch about the election being stolen.

[Vern]

NC votes left of AZ, NV and GA

[MR DARK BRANDON]

NC votes left of AZ, NV and GA

Finally someone said this lol, this is what I had in mind+WI (though I don’t think this will happen)

[wnwnwn]

NC votes to the left of NV or MI.
Trump wins OH around 5%
Alaska trends right thanks to Kennedy.