ProgressiveModerate
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Posts: 13,734
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« Reply #1 on: March 26, 2024, 10:55:17 PM » |
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A solid likely D, pretty close to safe. Harder is a consistent overperformer and this is a Biden + 13 seat; while there is a good chance this seat shifts right Presidentially don't see Trump winning it or it even being that close.
At least Republicans have a seemingly decent candidate this time, but overperformance in local nonpartisan elections doesn't necessarily translate well to federal partisan elections.
One race this kind of reminds me of is RI-02 in 2022. The seat is similar in partisanship, has shifted right in the Trump era, and Allan Fung was a popular mayor of D-leaning town that voted for Biden by double-digits, yet he still lost and it wasn't all that close. One difference is that unlike Magaziner who was new, Harder is an incumbent who has historically has pretty impressive overperformances.
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