Rate Isabella County, MI

[ProgressiveModerate]

This County voted Trump + 3.7 in 2016, then Trump + 2.5 in 2020. However, before 2016 it was a County that generally leaned D at the federal level and voted for Obama, Kerry, and Gore.

The County is a mostly rural MI County containing the college town of Mount Pleasant. In 2020, the County likely would've been closer (or outright flipped to Biden) had students been on campus.

In 2022, Dems generally did decent here; Whitmer carried the County by 7%, and on Prop 3 (abortion) it basically matched the statewide margin giving it 57% of the vote.

Could college kids returning to campus combined with the increasing political divide around educational attainment cause the County to flip to Biden?

Here's a 2020 Pres precinct map of the County. Just over half the county's population lives in the Mount Pleasant "square"

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Likely R by chance
Lean R by margin

[Annatar]

Trump wins it by around 10%, maybe a bit more, county is 85% non hispanic white and just 3% black, only 31% college educated. Demographically, if the polling is not wrong, counties like this should swing by a fair amount towards Trump.

[seskoog]

My guess is lean R for now.