Go back in time to Jan 2023. What do Kentucky Rs need to do differently to unseat Andy Beshear?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

?

[GAinDC]

I don’t really think there’s anything they could have done to change the outcome.

Cameron was a solid candidate and I don’t think anyone could have done significantly better. Beshear was a very popular incumbent, and KY tends to go for moderate Democratic governors, and he fits the mold well.

If anything, you have to go back to 2016. If Trump never ran and became President, Republicans might still have the advantage in off year elections, and that could have hurt Beshear in a Dem presidency.

[Roll Roons]

Beshear won because he was very popular. As long as he maintained the level of popularity he did, there was never a chance of him losing.

For gubernatorial elections, the incumbent's popularity is always the single most important factor. It is a far better indicator than state partisanship or national environment alone.

[Alben Barkley]

I actually do think without Dobbs they may have had a shot. But that buried them. Led to absolutely obscene margins for Andy in Louisville/Lexington areas. I mean, suburban areas I grew up in which voted for Dubya not so long ago were voting like Manhattan in this race… Combine that with his cross-partisan popularity even in deep Trump country places like Breathitt County, thanks to his being a genuinely great human being and politician who handled tragedies masterfully and made these people feel heard like no one else ever had, and there was just no stopping him. The state GOP simply utterly failed to persuade even some very Trumpy voters that Andy was some kind of liberal elitist who wanted to trans all their kids (basically the only argument they had that most people simply did not fall for). It didn’t hurt that the state economy was booming like never before either.

Still, back in the day (not so long ago even, just look at his dad) this set of circumstances would have easily led to Andy winning nearly every single county by lopsided margins and the state by massive double digits. The fact that he “only” won by 5 points, even if an improved margin from 2019, shows that KY has indeed undergone hard R partisanship in recent years sadly, which has affected even the state level, but fortunately not enough to overcome Andy’s personal popularity.

That’s not to take away anything from him at all however. I remain in absolute awe that ANY Democrat in ANY race was able to crack 60 in a county like Breathitt in the Trump era. My jaw has still barely come off the floor after initially learning just how hard he won, in a race I expected to be ultra tight based on countervailing trends (Andy’s personal popularity vs. the state’s increasing hard R lean in all races).The fact that he won at all is amazing in this environment, and he probably could have even outdone his father back in 2011 given that.

He is a super charismatic, empathetic, reasonable, young, moderate figure in the Democratic Party with proven crossover appeal to even the most conservative of voters. It would be utterly absurd if the national Democratic Party did not at least seriously consider him for the presidential ticket going forward.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think most people in Kentucky liked Cameron but a majority of them also liked Beshear. So ceteris paribus in a tossup race with two good candidates people are likely going to stick with the incumbent. There are exceptions to this, but it's a pretty good rule of thumb. What made me very suspicious and ultimately why I ended with a Beshear+4.5 prediction was the Cameron hype was literally in the final week of the campaign. This gave me major 2022 vibes and internally I felt like we would be thrown for the loop again. I think last minute surges are possible like we saw with Youngkin, but occured naturally over an entire month, not manufactured over a few days.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think most people in Kentucky liked Cameron but a majority of them also liked Beshear. So ceteris paribus in a tossup race with two good candidates people are likely going to stick with the incumbent. There are exceptions to this, but it's a pretty good rule of thumb. What made me very suspicious and ultimately why I ended with a Beshear+4.5 prediction was the Cameron hype was literally in the final week of the campaign. This gave me major 2022 vibes and internally I felt like we would be thrown for the loop again. I think last minute surges are possible like we saw with Youngkin, but occured naturally over an entire month, not manufactured over a few days.

It was nothing Rs can do his dad was Gov of KY already

[Vice President Christian Man]

I think nominating a candidate who opposed cuts to Medicare would've been a start.

[Bush did 311]

They have very safe supermajorities anyway. The governor is basically a pet.

Similar situation with some if the R governors in the northeast.

[Schiff for Senate]

Beshear won because he was very popular. As long as he maintained the level of popularity he did, there was never a chance of him losing.

For gubernatorial elections, the incumbent's popularity is always the single most important factor. It is a far better indicator than state partisanship or national environment alone.

See also: MD, MA and VT in 2018, LA in 2019, KS in 2022