How has the race changed from this time last year?

[Tekken_Guy]

How has the state of the race change from this time last year?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

"Republicans" have considered the possibility of voting for someone other than an out-on-bail, repeatedly impeached, self-declared serial rapist and convicted fraudster, who currently faces 88 felony charges in four different jurisdictions, who owes half a billion dollars in restitution for his crimes, can't differentiate between a picture of the woman he raped and the mother of his adult children (who he also raped), who is so deranged he regularly forgets who the current president is, who regularly brags about how he managed to identify an elephant on a test any five year old could pass, and who led an insurrection against his own country live on national television, and said, "no way, we love this guy".

Meanwhile, Donald's legal fees and trials are a becoming serious handicap to his (and by extension, the GOP's) ability to campaign.

The GOP's attempt to smear President Biden via impeachment has blown up in their faces.

[Inmate Trump]

Republicans have dug in further to MAGA. The GOP is less and less "the GOP" and more of a non-conservative MAGA party, with the only goal of furthering the leader's agenda, whatever that might be.

(It was already like that but it's only gotten more so over the last year.)

Meanwhile, Democrats have failed at messaging of Biden's accomplishments, which have been large and great in a short amount of time. Instead, they've allowed the old age message to takeover to the point it's the single most deterrent for independent voters and is playing the heaviest hand in swaying public opinion. For any political issue, Biden's age is at the forefront and Democrats never really got out to combat that notion and it may be too late. Democrats are hemorrhaging support from historically blue groups now too.

A year ago, this was a lean Biden election where I think he might've won every 2020 state plus NC. Now it's a toss-up, with a Trump edge in which the traitor may well carry every swing state.

[DaleCooper]

It really hasn't changed in any discernible way over the past almost two years now other than polls suddenly favoring Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No it's the same 319 map that the only state that could flip is NC, and WI, MI and PA aren't flipping even though the polls keep showing it. It's in the MOE

How many times since 2016 has polls showed WI, PA and MI on verge of going R, we went thru this in 2018 with Walker he failed and 22 with Evers

[TechbroMBA]

Red and brown avatars have gone from smug dismissal to snarling and barking at the screen everytime a poll drops and posting two minutes hate threads that can be summarized as “how dare he?”.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Red and brown avatars have gone from smug dismissal to snarling and barking at the screen everytime a poll drops and posting two minutes hate threads that can be summarized as “how dare he?”.

Yeah CNN Trump 8 in MI to Trump +2 in MI in matter of 2 days of course we are gonna discount polls and it's called MOE, and it's called voting we haven't lost yet until EDAY

[VALibertarian]

Despite a spirited showing from Nikki Haley of all people, the GOP writ large have thrown their lot in behind Trump; dissenters have been quashed and an uneasy? alliance has formed between Trump and what remains of the old guard (in particular with strategic candidate endorsements).

As of end of March 2024 Trump has successfully delayed and obfuscated the charges in the court of public opinion; aided by favorable judges and what seems to be a semi-sympathetic supreme court, some missteps by his prosecutors (Georgia) and a bit of luck. It appears the "teflon don" moniker remains unchallenged, as Trump's favorables have weathered the storm, with only a potential guilty verdict remaining to potentially change that (and even that's uncertain, will the public care about a guilty verdict in what can be spun as porn star hush money charges?)

Aiding Trump of course, primarily is the economy; despite the trumpeting of the dem administration and many economists that the economy is doing well; average american reactions appear to be mixed, with the high costs of gas and groceries; not to mention rent and home prices being felt. The bottom line is that economically, most americans felt more secure mid Trump's term pre-covid than they have at any point in Biden's tenure.

For his part, Biden has kicked into high gear following a successful SOTU, although the ongoing Israel/Gaza war and Ukrainian conflict are weighing him down; how much of an effect they have beyond social media grumbling remains to be seen; certainly it hasn't shown in any major primary challenges.

Overall, the race remains a toss up, with evidence both sides can point to, which was probably unexpected a year ago.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Overall, the race remains a toss up, with evidence both sides can point to, which was probably unexpected a year ago.

Ahem.

Biden v. DeSantis is very unlikely, but Biden wins it easily.

Biden v. Trump, if it happens (~50%) will be a terrifying toss-up