Do Trump's indictments actually help him?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Many people say it is a weakness but we have two points of evidence showing the opposite:

Alvin Bragg Indictment
In the aftermath of the 2022 midterms, Trump was in a really bad position. In the GOP primary his lead dropped below 50% for the first time ever and only lead DeSantis by as low as 13 points in late February. On the evening of March 29th, had a mere 15.8% lead in the RCP average. The very next day, the Manhattan Grand Jury votes to indict him. This was initially cheered as the beginning of the end for Trump, but the opposite happened. Within less than 3 weeks Trump is leading by close to 30 points and the DeSantis campaign was over before it even started. It can be argued that the Bragg indictment was truly the fire that ended the GOP primary early.

Georgia Mugshot
I think this is even more interesting. The day of the mugshot Biden led the RCP average by 1.4%, a small but steady lead he maintained since the summer. Similar to Bragg, the mugshot was supposed to end Trump and turn him into a villian. However, once again he managed to flip the script and used to boost himself. Immediately the mugshot was released after it begun to shrunk and Trump flipped it in early September. Biden has not lead the aggregate since.

Perhaps not all of his legal problems will be viewed the same. But maybe many Americans view him victim of the political system. Perhaps a mindset of "If they are going after him he is probably posing a threat to them".

[Progressive Pessimist]

They helped coalesce Republicans around him faster for sure, but I don't think they were the reason why he was polling better than Biden for the last few months.

[Umengus]

yes and his fine of 400 millions reinforces the fact that he is a victim of the system

[Yelnoc]

yes and his fine of 400 millions reinforces the fact that he is a victim of the system

The fines could be interpreted sympathetically like that. I could just as easily see some MAGA voters getting nervous and wondering if this broke guy is a "loser" when he is forced by the courts to start selling assets. Not a great look for a guy who is supposed to be a strong, savvy businessman.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I think being held accountable for his crimes helps Donald with Republicans.

Wilhoit's Law describes the heart of modern Republican beliefs: "There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.”

Or, to put it in the framing I have frequently used here, Republicans view the law only as a tool to enable them to abuse others with impunity.

So of course Donald Trump being held to account for any of his many abuses leads Republicans to rally around him in sympathy and solidarity - orcs protecting the big orc, knowing that if the forces of law and justice can take him down, they can take any or all of the orcs down.

But the problems with saying that helps him overall is that the orcs were going to vote for him anyway, regardless of any charges. And decent Americans, people who believe in rule of law, are less likely to be fooled into voting for Donald Trump the more his crimes and abuses are clear.

So no, in the end I don't think it helps him, although it hurts him very little, save insofar as it effects his ability to campaign and lie.