Who is going to win?

[°Leprechaun]

You can vote option 2 and pick the candidate most likely to win.

For now I am only voting tossup.

[Duke of York]

Trump and its not going to be close

[Tekken_Guy]

Trump and its not going to be close

Why?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

At this point I would give Trump around 60-40 odds of winning it. I always had this election close though, even before I flipped it to Trump.

[Tekken_Guy]

At this point I would give Trump around 60-40 odds of winning it. I always had this election close though, even before I flipped it to Trump.

When did you flip to Trump?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

At this point I would give Trump around 60-40 odds of winning it. I always had this election close though, even before I flipped it to Trump.

Lol you guys can't compete with us in Early voting in MI, PA and WI forget the state by state polls Biden is doing well in Natl polls Trump isn't up 8 in MI

[PeteB]

Biden, by a reduced but still comfortable margin.  This forum tends to overreact to current events and polls but, as the election nears, voters will remember the chaos during Trump years and vote Biden.

However, to paraphrase Yogi Berra, if Biden is honest after the election, he will say: "I didn't really win, the other guy (Trump) lost"

[Rand]

I just donated $400,000 to Kennedy so hopefully him.

[emailking]

18 Biden, 18 Trump, 9 tossup. Forum is balanced on this q.

[xavier110]

I voted pure toss up.

I can’t dismiss the polls. Point for Trump.

People are pissed and don’t like Biden. Point for Trump.

Every vote to a third party that would go for Biden unenthusiastically otherwise is a point for Trump.
 
At the same time, I don’t really believe the polls. Unlike 2012, when Republicans were un-skewing every demo to explain why Romney would win, this year seems simple. You either believe Biden will hemorrhage black and young voters - or you don’t. At the moment, I think he might underperform with black voters, but he’s still going to clear 85% of the vote with them. Similarly, he’s gonna stomp Trump with young voters. If you think he consolidates those blocs, he wins.

On the same note, Biden has shown decent strength with the swing state polling despite consistently losing the national polls to Trump. I certainly expect the swing states to have a D lean vs NPV, similar to how Ds did well in 2022 swing states.

Altogether, it’s a murky picture.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Insofar as events continue on their current trajectories until November, Biden wins.  Trump is an awful candidate who is melting down in public and the GOP is a broke disaster.

That said, I do think this year is far more potential for volatility than most. Both presumed nominees are seniors, meaning there a higher than normal chance of a health crisis that upends the race. I think there's also more potential for election-effecting chaos in foreign affairs, the environment, domestic affairs, Donald's many crimes, foreign interference, etc.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

The data is pointing to Trump. You can't just ignore polls you don't like. People bring up 2022 but the national polls were spot on in 2022. If Trump wins popular vote by low single digits he is 100% on track to win the electoral college.

Of course, things could change between now and November. But they usually don't. 2020 polls in late March pointed to Biden+7 national victory, in November they also pointed to Biden+7 national victory. 2012 was pointing to low single digits Obama victory, so did final polls. Polls at this time in 2004 were pointing to Bush+2 victory, so did final polls.

When there is an incumbent big shifts usually don't happen, people have their opinions locked in from the start, with momentum shifts only being very subtle.

[Tekken_Guy]

The data is pointing to Trump. You can't just ignore polls you don't like. People bring up 2022 but the national polls were spot on in 2022. If Trump wins popular vote by low single digits he is 100% on track to win the electoral college.

Of course, things could change between now and November. But they usually don't. 2020 polls in late March pointed to Biden+7 national victory, in November they also pointed to Biden+7 national victory. 2012 was pointing to low single digits Obama victory, so did final polls. Polls at this time in 2004 were pointing to Bush+2 victory, so did final polls.

When there is an incumbent big shifts usually don't happen, people have their opinions locked in from the start, with momentum shifts only being very subtle.

Are there any positive signs for Biden at least?

[MR DARK BRANDON]

The data is pointing to Trump. You can't just ignore polls you don't like. People bring up 2022 but the national polls were spot on in 2022. If Trump wins popular vote by low single digits he is 100% on track to win the electoral college.

Of course, things could change between now and November. But they usually don't. 2020 polls in late March pointed to Biden+7 national victory, in November they also pointed to Biden+7 national victory. 2012 was pointing to low single digits Obama victory, so did final polls. Polls at this time in 2004 were pointing to Bush+2 victory, so did final polls.

When there is an incumbent big shifts usually don't happen, people have their opinions locked in from the start, with momentum shifts only being very subtle.

Are there any positive signs for Biden at least?

 he’s literally leading in a lot of good quality national polls.

[Tekken_Guy]

This question was asked exactly a day ago.

Biden seems to be doing a bit worse in this poll because of the toss-up option while Trump is doing the same.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The data is pointing to Trump. You can't just ignore polls you don't like. People bring up 2022 but the national polls were spot on in 2022. If Trump wins popular vote by low single digits he is 100% on track to win the electoral college.

Of course, things could change between now and November. But they usually don't. 2020 polls in late March pointed to Biden+7 national victory, in November they also pointed to Biden+7 national victory. 2012 was pointing to low single digits Obama victory, so did final polls. Polls at this time in 2004 were pointing to Bush+2 victory, so did final polls.

When there is an incumbent big shifts usually don't happen, people have their opinions locked in from the start, with momentum shifts only being very subtle.

Are there any positive signs for Biden at least?

Positives? Well the election is still over 7 months away so there is still a lot of clock in the ballgame. He also seems to have a fundraising advantage although it's unclear how long it will last or if it will be very significant, but it certainly doesn't hurt. He did beat Trump last time, and even though the circumstances are very diffrerent now, his victory still counts for something.

The biggest mistake Biden made though was complacency his entire term. By mid 2021 it was OBVIOUS Trump was going to run and likely be the GOP nominee. Biden should have started ramping up his campaign then and finished out Trump while he was at is weakest moments. He could have used his position in power to build contrast and challenge Trump for his first term. Instead he sat on his ass, and let Trump recover for over a year. Then again, after the midterm embarrasement, there was another opportunity to clean Trump off again. Instead he waited till April to announce, and even that was relatively low-key. People mention this year's SOTU as the campaign kickoff, but that should have happened in 2023. Had his campaign not wasted valuable time and he made a few better policy decisions this could be a borderline Lean/Likely D race right now.

[Tekken_Guy]

The data is pointing to Trump. You can't just ignore polls you don't like. People bring up 2022 but the national polls were spot on in 2022. If Trump wins popular vote by low single digits he is 100% on track to win the electoral college.

Of course, things could change between now and November. But they usually don't. 2020 polls in late March pointed to Biden+7 national victory, in November they also pointed to Biden+7 national victory. 2012 was pointing to low single digits Obama victory, so did final polls. Polls at this time in 2004 were pointing to Bush+2 victory, so did final polls.

When there is an incumbent big shifts usually don't happen, people have their opinions locked in from the start, with momentum shifts only being very subtle.

Are there any positive signs for Biden at least?

Positives? Well the election is still over 7 months away so there is still a lot of clock in the ballgame. He also seems to have a fundraising advantage although it's unclear how long it will last or if it will be very significant, but it certainly doesn't hurt. He did beat Trump last time, and even though the circumstances are very diffrerent now, his victory still counts for something.

The biggest mistake Biden made though was complacency his entire term. By mid 2021 it was OBVIOUS Trump was going to run and likely be the GOP nominee. Biden should have started ramping up his campaign then and finished out Trump while he was at is weakest moments. He could have used his position in power to build contrast and challenge Trump for his first term. Meanwhile after the midterm embarrasement, there was another opportunity to clean Trump off again. Instead he waited till April to announce, and even that was relatively low-key. People mention this year's SOTU as the campaign kickoff, but that should have happened in 2023. Had his campaign not wasted valuable time and he made a few better policy decisions this could be a borderline Lean/Likely D race right now.

What was the exact moment it became clear Trump would run again?

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

The data is pointing to Trump. You can't just ignore polls you don't like. People bring up 2022 but the national polls were spot on in 2022. If Trump wins popular vote by low single digits he is 100% on track to win the electoral college.

Of course, things could change between now and November. But they usually don't. 2020 polls in late March pointed to Biden+7 national victory, in November they also pointed to Biden+7 national victory. 2012 was pointing to low single digits Obama victory, so did final polls. Polls at this time in 2004 were pointing to Bush+2 victory, so did final polls.

When there is an incumbent big shifts usually don't happen, people have their opinions locked in from the start, with momentum shifts only being very subtle.

Are there any positive signs for Biden at least?

Positives? Well the election is still over 7 months away so there is still a lot of clock in the ballgame. He also seems to have a fundraising advantage although it's unclear how long it will last or if it will be very significant, but it certainly doesn't hurt. He did beat Trump last time, and even though the circumstances are very diffrerent now, his victory still counts for something.

The biggest mistake Biden made though was complacency his entire term. By mid 2021 it was OBVIOUS Trump was going to run and likely be the GOP nominee. Biden should have started ramping up his campaign then and finished out Trump while he was at is weakest moments. He could have used his position in power to build contrast and challenge Trump for his first term. Meanwhile after the midterm embarrasement, there was another opportunity to clean Trump off again. Instead he waited till April to announce, and even that was relatively low-key. People mention this year's SOTU as the campaign kickoff, but that should have happened in 2023. Had his campaign not wasted valuable time and he made a few better policy decisions this could be a borderline Lean/Likely D race right now.

What was the exact moment it became clear Trump would run again?

November 7, 2020

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The data is pointing to Trump. You can't just ignore polls you don't like. People bring up 2022 but the national polls were spot on in 2022. If Trump wins popular vote by low single digits he is 100% on track to win the electoral college.

Of course, things could change between now and November. But they usually don't. 2020 polls in late March pointed to Biden+7 national victory, in November they also pointed to Biden+7 national victory. 2012 was pointing to low single digits Obama victory, so did final polls. Polls at this time in 2004 were pointing to Bush+2 victory, so did final polls.

When there is an incumbent big shifts usually don't happen, people have their opinions locked in from the start, with momentum shifts only being very subtle.

Are there any positive signs for Biden at least?

Positives? Well the election is still over 7 months away so there is still a lot of clock in the ballgame. He also seems to have a fundraising advantage although it's unclear how long it will last or if it will be very significant, but it certainly doesn't hurt. He did beat Trump last time, and even though the circumstances are very diffrerent now, his victory still counts for something.

The biggest mistake Biden made though was complacency his entire term. By mid 2021 it was OBVIOUS Trump was going to run and likely be the GOP nominee. Biden should have started ramping up his campaign then and finished out Trump while he was at is weakest moments. He could have used his position in power to build contrast and challenge Trump for his first term. Meanwhile after the midterm embarrasement, there was another opportunity to clean Trump off again. Instead he waited till April to announce, and even that was relatively low-key. People mention this year's SOTU as the campaign kickoff, but that should have happened in 2023. Had his campaign not wasted valuable time and he made a few better policy decisions this could be a borderline Lean/Likely D race right now.

What was the exact moment it became clear Trump would run again?

Source: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-bring-back-maga-rallies-b1839155.html?utm_source=reddit.com

Sources close to the former president told CNN that Mr Trump has been tossing the idea around, and could return to holding live MAGA events as soon as May - just after Joe Biden’s first 100 days in office have ended.

"It will definitely be different in terms of the setup, but we got really good at planning these events in 2020, so we will probably use a lot of those same vendors again," CNN's source said.

The former president's return to active participation in politics will likely first revolve around him offering his stamp of approval for candidates running the MAGA playbook ahead of the 2022 Congressional elections.

When he started holding rallies again in summer 2021, it showed that he was seriously considering it. I think by early 2022 he already made up his mind, but decided to wait until after the midterms before announcing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The data is pointing to Trump. You can't just ignore polls you don't like. People bring up 2022 but the national polls were spot on in 2022. If Trump wins popular vote by low single digits he is 100% on track to win the electoral college.

Of course, things could change between now and November. But they usually don't. 2020 polls in late March pointed to Biden+7 national victory, in November they also pointed to Biden+7 national victory. 2012 was pointing to low single digits Obama victory, so did final polls. Polls at this time in 2004 were pointing to Bush+2 victory, so did final polls.

When there is an incumbent big shifts usually don't happen, people have their opinions locked in from the start, with momentum shifts only being very subtle.

Are there any positive signs for Biden at least?

Positives? Well the election is still over 7 months away so there is still a lot of clock in the ballgame. He also seems to have a fundraising advantage although it's unclear how long it will last or if it will be very significant, but it certainly doesn't hurt. He did beat Trump last time, and even though the circumstances are very diffrerent now, his victory still counts for something.

The biggest mistake Biden made though was complacency his entire term. By mid 2021 it was OBVIOUS Trump was going to run and likely be the GOP nominee. Biden should have started ramping up his campaign then and finished out Trump while he was at is weakest moments. He could have used his position in power to build contrast and challenge Trump for his first term. Instead he sat on his ass, and let Trump recover for over a year. Then again, after the midterm embarrasement, there was another opportunity to clean Trump off again. Instead he waited till April to announce, and even that was relatively low-key. People mention this year's SOTU as the campaign kickoff, but that should have happened in 2023. Had his campaign not wasted valuable time and he made a few better policy decisions this could be a borderline Lean/Likely D race right now.

The polls look like 22 and guess what they were wrong too in 22 Pred a Red wave lol we aren't losing WI, PA and MI with the Natl not State by state polls showing a tight race

[Progressive Pessimist]

As I've said, even during Biden's bigges nadir, I think he is favored and will end up winning nationally between three and four points, while winning most of the battlegrounds that put him over by more than he did in 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We know this already Activate Trump +6 wrong, Rassy Trump 48/41 wrong.

The polls are just recycling the same polls state by state garbage as last time in 22 NV Laxalt +5 was wrong and they still Emerson has NV R 5

Battleground states aren't OH, TX or FL it's AZ, NV, GA and NC

[Senator Incitatus]

Biden, by a reduced but still comfortable margin. 

Quite definitely impossible.

[Alben Barkley]

Trump and its not going to be close

[Tekken_Guy]

Trump and its not going to be close

What will it get you to take to think Biden will be favored?