Will/Is it possible for Virginia to vote to the Right of Minnesota?

[King Man]

Title

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Not this cycle

Also welcome to the forum

[Skill and Chance]

I mean they were about 3% apart in 2020 and about 4% apart in 2016, so it certainly isn't a crazy idea.

[Redban]

Yes

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

VA and MN are gone

[TodayJunior]

I could see both being Biden +6 esp since not a whole lot of $ is going to spent in these so marginally they may be closer

[Schiff for Senate]

Theoretically possible, but not likely, at least not this cycle.

[CityofSinners]

Not impossible but unlikely. Hard to see the demographic swing that moves VA to the right of MN. Would have to be an huge swing right among minorities while also losing ground with government workers.

[wnwnwn]

Nah, the current democrat party appeals well to Virginia.

[Mr. Smith]

Not impossible but unlikely. Hard to see the demographic swing that moves VA to the right of MN. Would have to be an huge swing right among minorities while also losing ground with government workers.

Or some swing back with Midwest WWCs/ extremely juiced Twin City 'burbs turnout that launches MN further left as VA stagnates low doubles/high singles.

[Skill and Chance]

Not impossible but unlikely. Hard to see the demographic swing that moves VA to the right of MN. Would have to be an huge swing right among minorities while also losing ground with government workers.

Or some swing back with Midwest WWCs/ extremely juiced Twin City 'burbs turnout that launches MN further left as VA stagnates low doubles/high singles.

3 ways I could see it happening (though I don't think it's likely):

1. The election is a double digit Biden landslide.  VA Dems would have a hard ceiling somewhere below 55% in a presidential race.  MN Dems can easily get 60% in their blowouts.

If the election is close:

2. The blue collar job market continues to be notably stronger than the white collar job market.  Perhaps the latter deteriorates further.

3. Abortion is close to the #1 issue in the election.  VA pretty clearly has a stronger pro-life movement than MN.  In fact, the entire South would likely be further right than recent history in this world and the entire North further left (give or take a couple of the 60%+ Dem very Catholic NE states).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

VA is not an R state anymore cmon man

[John Dule]

If Virginia votes left of Minnesota one more time they should get their flag back for good behavior.

[Minnesota Mike]

Not impossible but unlikely. Hard to see the demographic swing that moves VA to the right of MN. Would have to be an huge swing right among minorities while also losing ground with government workers.

Or some swing back with Midwest WWCs/ extremely juiced Twin City 'burbs turnout that launches MN further left as VA stagnates low doubles/high singles.

3 ways I could see it happening (though I don't think it's likely):

1. The election is a double digit Biden landslide.  VA Dems would have a hard ceiling somewhere below 55% in a presidential race.  MN Dems can easily get 60% in their blowouts.

If the election is close:

2. The blue collar job market continues to be notably stronger than the white collar job market.  Perhaps the latter deteriorates further.

3. Abortion is close to the #1 issue in the election.  VA pretty clearly has a stronger pro-life movement than MN.  In fact, the entire South would likely be further right than recent history in this world and the entire North further left (give or take a couple of the 60%+ Dem very Catholic NE states).

Since 1996 MN statewide Dems have gotten 60%+ only twice, both by Amy Klobuchar.