In PA 2018:
Dems win Governors race by 17 points (18 point shift from 2016)
Dems win Senate race by 13 points (14 point shift from 2016)
Dems overperform strongly in all but 1 US House race of 18
As the national environment moves 6 points to the left
In FL 2022:
Reps win Governors race by 19 points (16 point shift from 2020)
Reps win Senate race by 16 points (13 point shift from 2020)
Reps overperform strongly in all but 2 US House races of 28
As the national environment moves 6 points to the right
Keep in mind that PA ended up trending rightwards in 2020.
Its reasonable to say that state level shifts in midterms have no real bearing on what will happen in the next Presidential, and unreasonable to expect Republicans to broadly hold on to their 2022 gains in FL.
I think if the Florida Democrats were a viable party there might be an argument but wheras the PA GOP had statewide officials the Florida Democrats are struggling to hold their local offices.
Biden will have money to do stuff but how motivated his supporters will be to do on the ground work well before election day is another matter. I suspect the Biden campaign will pour money into state parties with rhr infrastructure in place.
Florida is more of a logistical challenge than a financial one
