What share of non-Biden primary voters will be Biden 2024 voters?

[ProgressiveModerate]

You sort of have 2 extremes here:

1. The (mostly rural) conservadems, especially in states with closed primaries. The best of example of this so far would be Oklahoma where Biden struggled in a lot of rural areas where there are still ancestral registered Dems who are functionally Republicans federally these days, and most of these defects in rural OK likely voted for Trump in 2020 and will do so again.

2. Protest votes from progressives and other folks on the far-left. A decent number of these people voted for Biden in 2020, perhaps begrudgingly, but it also seems like there are many who are generally angry at the system and never voted for Biden in 2020 in the first place. Likewise, for 2024, seems like it'll be a mixed bag, but with more Biden 2020 GE voters --> 2024 non-Biden GE than the other way around (at least once you factor out people who wouldn't vote in 2020 like people who turned 18 since 2020)

You also just have things like a small contingent of non-Biden voters who will die by the 2024 election, but probably too small to make much of impact.

If you had to give a % estimate, how many non-Biden primary voters will be Biden 2024 voters?