Will Ohio remain within single digits?

[Tekken_Guy]

Will Ohio remain within single digits this year?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Narrowly yes.

I think one thing that will help Biden/Dems is that they are likely to outspend Trump/Rs in the state this time. In 2020 Pres, OH spending was pretty low on both sides, and I think Dems suffered from that - OH had quite a lot of (mostly Dem) communities that saw turnout dropoffs from 2016-->2020 which was pretty rare overall in the country.



Here, you can see the turnout declines inside all the main Dem cities; Cleveland, Cinci, Columbus, Toledo, Dayton, ect. Literally over 1/7th of Ohians lived in a precinct that saw a turnout decline from 2016-->2020, which I'm pretty sure is more than any other US state. These precincts collectively gave Clinton 72% and Biden 71% of the vote, and seemed to cost Dems about 60k votes compared to if turnout was equal to 2016 in these precincts.

[TodayJunior]

Yes. Trump wins by about 6 this time.

[Pericles]

It swung to House Democrats in 2022, and indeed Democrats overperformed Biden in the competitive races there. That's a good sign for them.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Just barely at worst for him.

I'm expecting Trump+9 or 10.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump will win it but within 9 pts that's all Brown needs to win

[JGibson]

Yes, at Trump +8. That may be enough to get Sherrod Brown over the line.

[Vern]

I think it will end up being Trump +10

[wbrocks67]

Hard to say; half of me thinks it will kind of stall out at the Trump +8 we saw in 2016 and 2020, but there is also not much room to grow for Dems here.

[mjba257]

Trump +10. Dems have some room to grow in the suburbs of Cincy and Columbus that can slow the bleeding in the rest of the state. Plus a competitive senate race could boost Dem turnout, hence why the state won't be R+15 like perhaps Iowa might.