New (3/10) poll of Palestinians from Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research

[GeneralMacArthur]

https://www.pcpsr.org/en/node/969

As far as I know, the PCPSR is a credible organization that uses good methodology.  Prez Mike may offer more insight in this regard.  In Gaza, the sampling was only done in areas with no fighting, unclear to me how this would bias results, if at all.

To ensure the safety of our data collectors in the Gaza Strip, we have restricted the interviews with residents and displaced persons to specific areas where there was no on-going daily fighting. These areas included the Rafah area, parts of the Khanyounis area, the central Gaza Strip, and all shelters in these areas.  Our data collectors were not deployed in the besieged northern Gaza area nor in parts in the central Gaza Strip and parts in the Khanyounis area that saw daily fighting or Israeli army deployment.

The data collection dates where selected carefully in the hope that the interviews would be conducted under two different conditions: continued war and a ceasefire. We hoped (1) to be able to document and measure the change that might be generated by the ceasefire, which we expected to take place on the first day of the month of Ramadan, and (2) to be able compare the findings under the two conditions. Therefore, half of the interviews were completed during the first three days of data collection. At that point, on the fourth day, 8 March, we suspended data collection in order to assess the prospects for a ceasefire. On that day, we concluded that no ceasefire would take place as we originally expected. Therefore, we resumed data collection on the fifth day and continued until 10 March.

The sample size of this poll is 1580 adults, of whom 830 were interviewed face to face in the West Bank (in 83 locations) and 750 in the Gaza Strip (in 75 locations). Given the uncertainty about the population distribution in the Gaza Strip, we almost doubled the size of the sample in that area in order to lower the margin of error, which stands at +/-3%. The combined West Bank-Gaza Strip data file was reweighted to reflect the actual proportionate size of the population in the two Palestinian areas. Therefore, the sample is representative of the residents of the two areas.

Anyway, here are some results from the poll that I found interesting.

Regarding the 10/7 attack

In your view, was Hamas's decision to launch its offensive against Israel on 10/7 correct?
Gaza:  71% correct (+14 from December)
West Bank:  71% correct (-11 from December)

Have you seen videos of the attacks?
Gaza:  30%
West Bank:  11%

If not, why not?
60%:  Media told me not to watch them
20%:  I do not want to watch them

Did Hamas commit atrocities on 10/7?
93%:  No they did not
This number is 81% among those who watched the videos of the atrocities, and 97% among those who did not.

Has Hamas committed war crimes during the conflict?
91%:  No

Has Israel committed war crimes during the conflict?
94%:  Yes

Gaza only:  Regarding humanitarian conditions

Do you have food sufficient for a day or two?
44% yes

If you need food or water, is a place you can reach that can provide the assistance you need?
96% Yes, but 77% say it is only with difficult.

Broken down:
Water -- 86% Yes
Food -- 87% Yes
Electricity to charge phone -- 70% Yes
Tents -- 45% Yes
Covers -- 61% Yes
Clothing -- 56% Yes
Medical care -- 73% Yes
Toilets -- 73% Yes
naturally, given Gaza is an active war zone, all of these include a substantial share saying "with great difficulty/risk"

Regarding the progress of the war

Do you expect the ICJ to convict Israel of genocide:
Gaza:  43% Yes
West Bank:  32% Yes

Do you expect a permanent ceasefire in the coming months:
Gaza:  27%
West Bank:  50%

Do you expect other nations to enter the war:
Gaza:  26%
West Bank:  25%

Gaza + West Bank:  Who do you want to see rule Gaza after the war?
Hamas:
Gaza:  52%
West Bank:  64%

Palestinian Authority:
Gaza:  40%
West Bank:  14%

Arab countries / the UN / Israel (combined):
Gaza:  7%
West Bank:  3%

Are you satisfied with the performance of these actors in the war?

Hamas:
Gaza:  52%
West Bank:  85%

Fatah:
Gaza:  21%
West Bank:  23%

Yemen:
Gaza:  68%
West Bank:  89%

Egypt:
Gaza:  39%
West Bank:  11%

Russia:
Gaza:  28%
West Bank:  17%

United States:
Gaza:  1%
West Bank:  0%

United Nations:
Gaza:  11%
West Bank:  3%

Election polling

Gaza:
Hamas:  34%
Fatah:  25%

West Bank:
Hamas:  35%
Fatah:  12%

Support for two-state solution

Gaza:  62%
West Bank:  34%

[GeneralMacArthur]

I think the main surprise for me from this polling was that the West Bank is much more radicalized than Gaza. 

Support for Hamas in the West Bank is much higher, and support for a two-state solution much lower.

This goes against my preconceived notion, which was that the Gaza Strip was hopelessly radicalized, while there was some possibility of the West Bank living side-by-side with Israel.

On the contrary, looking at results like this, it's difficult to imagine a two-state solution with the West Bank where we can go a generation without heavy artillery being mounted in the foothills pointed at Tel Aviv.  I mean, everyone would support it.


The results regarding overall high Palestinian electoral support and approval for Hamas, approval of the 10/7 attacks, and belief that kidnapping and the gratuitous rape, torture and murder of innocent Israelis for which you have seen first-hand video evidence are not atrocities, may be surprising to some... but it is not surprising to me.

[PSOL]

It’s quite honestly one poll and taken when most Palestinians probably can’t be reached well. That now Israel-hacks are latching onto it when they didn’t give a damn about public opinion beforehand is really telling.

[GeneralMacArthur]

It’s quite honestly one poll and taken when most Palestinians probably can’t be reached well. That now Israel-hacks are latching onto it when they didn’t give a damn about public opinion beforehand is really telling.

Yes, I'm sure there's some silent majority of Palestinians out there who just hate Hamas and were appalled by 10/7, but they didn't pick up their phone.

Did you even read the link to see what the polling methodology was or did you just immediately jump to the conclusion that the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research doesn't know how to do surveys of Palestinians, because the results didn't align with your priors?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I'd like to know the profile of a Gazan who thinks Hamas did nothing wrong on October 7 yet supports a two-state solution. In fact, not just of "a" Gazan who holds that combination of views; on these numbers it has to be a majority of the Gaza Strip's population that does, which is remarkable and difficult to know whether to assess as a good sign or a bad sign for the future.

[PSOL]

I really do think this is the epitome of a GMac threaf

[VBM]

I really do think this is the epitome of a GMac threaf

How?

[All Along The Watchtower]

Yes, I'm sure there's some silent majority of Palestinians out there who just hate Hamas and were appalled by 10/7, but they didn't pick up their phone.

Ok, so a majority of Palestinians believe these awful things. What are we supposed to do about it? What lesson do you want people to take away from this? What’s your preferred policy response?

I ask because in my experience, this is often used as an argument to justify Israeli policies and US support for them, and worse, that the tens of thousands of Palestinians who have died since October 7th were “asking for it.” Not exactly nice stuff.

[Dan the Roman]

I'd like to know the profile of a Gazan who thinks Hamas did nothing wrong on October 7 yet supports a two-state solution. In fact, not just of "a" Gazan who holds that combination of views; on these numbers it has to be a majority of the Gaza Strip's population that does, which is remarkable and difficult to know whether to assess as a good sign or a bad sign for the future.

Ones who have experienced war and are willing to be pragmatic.

Gazans may be believe Hamas was morally justified but also want the war to stop and aren't keen on this happening again

Those in the West Bank enjoy the feeling of Israel being struck but haven't been hit back. They are a more radicalized version of the Campus protestors in the US. And they can support Hamas while the overlap between people who have been beaten up by both israelis/Hamas is likely high. They have fewer illusions Hamas are good guys even if they have little doubt Israelis are bad guys.

Ironically these results are an argument that collective punishment is effective

[Vosem]

Yes, I'm sure there's some silent majority of Palestinians out there who just hate Hamas and were appalled by 10/7, but they didn't pick up their phone.

Ok, so a majority of Palestinians believe these awful things. What are we supposed to do about it? What lesson do you want people to take away from this? What’s your preferred policy response?

I ask because in my experience, this is often used as an argument to justify Israeli policies and US support for them, and worse, that the tens of thousands of Palestinians who have died since October 7th were “asking for it.” Not exactly nice stuff.

Somebody should occupy Palestine until their society stops believing these awful things. Obviously this doesn't justify killing or displacing anyone, but it certainly implies that there should not be self-government.

[GoTfan]

Yes, I'm sure there's some silent majority of Palestinians out there who just hate Hamas and were appalled by 10/7, but they didn't pick up their phone.

Ok, so a majority of Palestinians believe these awful things. What are we supposed to do about it? What lesson do you want people to take away from this? What’s your preferred policy response?

I ask because in my experience, this is often used as an argument to justify Israeli policies and US support for them, and worse, that the tens of thousands of Palestinians who have died since October 7th were “asking for it.” Not exactly nice stuff.

Somebody should occupy Palestine until their society stops believing these awful things. Obviously this doesn't justify killing or displacing anyone, but it certainly implies that there should not be self-government.

Except you have tried to justify it. Repeatedly.

[Vosem]

Yes, I'm sure there's some silent majority of Palestinians out there who just hate Hamas and were appalled by 10/7, but they didn't pick up their phone.

Ok, so a majority of Palestinians believe these awful things. What are we supposed to do about it? What lesson do you want people to take away from this? What’s your preferred policy response?

I ask because in my experience, this is often used as an argument to justify Israeli policies and US support for them, and worse, that the tens of thousands of Palestinians who have died since October 7th were “asking for it.” Not exactly nice stuff.

Somebody should occupy Palestine until their society stops believing these awful things. Obviously this doesn't justify killing or displacing anyone, but it certainly implies that there should not be self-government.

Except you have tried to justify it. Repeatedly.

Where?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I'd like to know the profile of a Gazan who thinks Hamas did nothing wrong on October 7 yet supports a two-state solution. In fact, not just of "a" Gazan who holds that combination of views; on these numbers it has to be a majority of the Gaza Strip's population that does, which is remarkable and difficult to know whether to assess as a good sign or a bad sign for the future.

Someone who either doesn’t mind Israel existing or has come to terms with it as unavoidable, but still supports violent resistance and either doesn’t believe the atrocities happened or thinks that ending the occupation is so important that they’re justified?

[GeneralMacArthur]

I'd like to know the profile of a Gazan who thinks Hamas did nothing wrong on October 7 yet supports a two-state solution. In fact, not just of "a" Gazan who holds that combination of views; on these numbers it has to be a majority of the Gaza Strip's population that does, which is remarkable and difficult to know whether to assess as a good sign or a bad sign for the future.

My guess is that among the 71% of Gazans who think 10/7 was awesome, there's some share who think Palestine should go for a two-state solution as a matter of short-term gain, so that it can free itself from the Israeli security state and then consolidate and strike out as a sovereign state declaring war on another sovereign state.  And then there's another share who say, no we don't want to give Israel even the short-lived moral victory of us recognizing them as a state, we want it all and we won't stop until we get it.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Anyway, I don’t think it’s much of a surprise that West Bank Palestinians are more radicalized than those in Gaza, seeing as that’s where the Israeli settlements have been since the withdrawal from Gaza in the 2000s, and thus where Palestinians have been on the receiving end of settler violence (which has escalated in recent years).

Also, unlike Hamas, the PA provides police and security cooperation to Israel—hardly a popular move among West Bank Palestinians. And I imagine that having to live under Hamas’s own corrupt and dictatorial control (as opposed to the PA’s) would tend to reduce support for them among Palestinians, regardless of whether they supported their violence against Israel.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Yes, I'm sure there's some silent majority of Palestinians out there who just hate Hamas and were appalled by 10/7, but they didn't pick up their phone.

Ok, so a majority of Palestinians believe these awful things. What are we supposed to do about it? What lesson do you want people to take away from this? What’s your preferred policy response?

I ask because in my experience, this is often used as an argument to justify Israeli policies and US support for them, and worse, that the tens of thousands of Palestinians who have died since October 7th were “asking for it.” Not exactly nice stuff.

The point is, there are two conflicting narratives of the war in Gaza.

In one narrative (A), the Palestinians are a subjugated group held hostage by Hamas.  Hamas is a terrorist group that maintains power through violent force, and the Palestinians have no practical means of resisting their oppressors.  Hamas brings misery to the Palestinians by stealing their food and aid money, tearing up their infrastructure, forcibly recruiting their children, in service of a doomed effort to fight Israel.  In this view, the Palestinians are not part of any Hamas-led state, and all of Israel's attempts to punish and incapacitate the Palestinian state of Gaza are at best petty revenge against the innocent Palestinians for the crime of having once (but no longer) supported Hamas, and at worst a genocidal attempt to use Hamas's evil as an excuse to destroy the Palestinians.

In the other narrative (B), the Palestinians by and large (#NotAllPalestinians of course) are supportive of Hamas and its actions, hold extreme opinions such as the desire for neverending war with Israel and a totally dehumanized view of Jews, view all atrocities and war crimes committed against Israel as justified, and either actively aid or at least passively accept the actions of Hamas.  In this narrative, the Palestinians are part and parcel of the Hamas-led state.

The two are fundamentally different and they impact how Israel should conduct the war.

In narrative B, this war is simply state vs. state, one state being the Israelis as led by Netanyahu, the other being the Palestinians as led by Hamas.  The demolition and punishment of the state is justified to the extent that it is necessary for obtaining victory in the war.

In narrative A, this is a war of liberation, where Israel is going into Gaza to free the poor, oppressed Palestinians from their wicked captors.  Any attempt to turn against those same Palestinians can only be motivated by pure hatred, or genocidal desire.  Because there is no military rationale for treating the Palestinian state as a hostile one.  It is an innocent, neutral state that suffers from being infested with Hamas.

I think these two opposing stories basically explain a lot of the diverging viewpoints among Americans regarding the conflict.  If you view the Palestinians as innocent hostages of Hamas, then Israel blowing up a building that houses military infrastructure looks like collective punishment.  If you view the Palestinians as supportive of Hamas, and collaborating with Hamas, and a part of the Hamas-led state, then Israel blowing up a building is just a standard part of a war between two states.

I mean if Ukraine were to roll tanks into Belgorod and subject the civilian population to harsh military law, and if they were being sniped from houses just blow up those houses, and raze arms depots and guerrilla hideouts to the ground, I don't think people would shed too many tears.  Because Russia vs. Ukraine is clearly a state vs. state conflict where the Russian people all support Russia's objectives and are happy to help in the war effort or at least passively support.  But when the equivalent happens in Gaza we are asked to view it as genocide.  And by and large that's because many people don't see Russia/Ukraine as an apt analogy, instead they view this more like if the U.N. had tried to liberate Rwanda from the genocidal Bagosara regime by leveling Kigali.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I should add that the Netanyahu government clearly sees narrative (A) as false and narrative (B) as true, and reflects that in how they conduct the war.  They aren't intentionally killing civilians, but if Palestinians are allowing Hamas to operate in their building, or working alongside Hamas, or allowing themselves to be used as human shields by Hamas, then the IDF views them as basically enemy combatants, or at least citizens of an enemy state actively aiding the enemy, and thus has no problem turning them into collateral damage.

They could conduct the war differently by assuming narrative (B), but narrative (B) implies that there would be support for the Israeli army's liberation from the Palestinians, and that some of them would help the Israelis.  Obviously that hasn't been the case.  Hamas steals all the food from the Palestinians, turns their hospitals into military forts, and uses them as human shields, or cannon fodder for Hamas's own atrocities, to try and win the war by securing international sympathy for their miserable plight.  But the Palestinians seem to be happy with this situation, and none to thankful to Israel for liberating them from it, much less eager to help Israel in this quest.

Of course, #NotAllPalestinians.  Reality is always a mixed bag.  To compare it to Iraq, after America liberated the oppressed and miserable Iraqis from the autocratic regime of Saddam Hussein, we expected them to welcome us with open arms and celebrate their liberation and happily collaborate with us to stamp out the remnants of Saddam.  For many Iraqis that was the case.  But many others collaborated with the terrorist groups that were formed by Saddam's ex-officers and ex-officials, or became acolytes of one warlord or another and their sponsored militia group engaging in terrorism.  I think the number here was nowhere near 70%.  But it was enough to make it an impossible nightmare for American troops to defend and protect Iraqis while also engaging in battle with the various terrorist/militia groups that were being aided and protected by those same Iraqis we were trying to defend/protect!

Now take that number and push it up higher and higher, to where 70% of Iraqis were fans of some terrorist outfit and wanted to see their outfit of choice defeat the United States and control the country.  Realistically you probably would've seen the United States throw up its hands and say "f--k all y'all, we're outta here" pretty early.  It was hope that kept us there for so long.  Now Israel doesn't have much hope for Gaza ever being a stable, decent state.  But they also tried throwing their hands up and ragequitting in 2005 and the 10/7 attack revealed that this isn't a sustainable long-term strategy.

So now imagine if the United States had to stay in Iraq until all those terror groups were defeated.  Terror groups that were supported and aided by 70% of the population, making them basically an army of the state.  What would that have looked like?  It obviously wouldn't have looked like the United States just massacring people left and right, but it also would've looked much more like what we imagine a United States war with Russia might look like, with entire buildings or neighborhoods being flattened and people being subjected to military rule.

[TheReckoning]

Yes, I'm sure there's some silent majority of Palestinians out there who just hate Hamas and were appalled by 10/7, but they didn't pick up their phone.

Ok, so a majority of Palestinians believe these awful things. What are we supposed to do about it? What lesson do you want people to take away from this? What’s your preferred policy response?

I ask because in my experience, this is often used as an argument to justify Israeli policies and US support for them, and worse, that the tens of thousands of Palestinians who have died since October 7th were “asking for it.” Not exactly nice stuff.

Somebody should occupy Palestine until their society stops believing these awful things. Obviously this doesn't justify killing or displacing anyone, but it certainly implies that there should not be self-government.

Should Russia also be occupied then, since their government believes that killing innocent people is fair game if it means becoming more powerful?

[GeneralMacArthur]

Yes, I'm sure there's some silent majority of Palestinians out there who just hate Hamas and were appalled by 10/7, but they didn't pick up their phone.

Ok, so a majority of Palestinians believe these awful things. What are we supposed to do about it? What lesson do you want people to take away from this? What’s your preferred policy response?

I ask because in my experience, this is often used as an argument to justify Israeli policies and US support for them, and worse, that the tens of thousands of Palestinians who have died since October 7th were “asking for it.” Not exactly nice stuff.

Somebody should occupy Palestine until their society stops believing these awful things. Obviously this doesn't justify killing or displacing anyone, but it certainly implies that there should not be self-government.

Should Russia also be occupied then, since their government believes that killing innocent people is fair game if it means becoming more powerful?

The value to humankind of an American regime occupying Russia and transforming its culture and mentality to one of peaceful collaboration would be immeasurable.  Probably measured in the hundreds of trillions of dollars.

[Vosem]

Yes, I'm sure there's some silent majority of Palestinians out there who just hate Hamas and were appalled by 10/7, but they didn't pick up their phone.

Ok, so a majority of Palestinians believe these awful things. What are we supposed to do about it? What lesson do you want people to take away from this? What’s your preferred policy response?

I ask because in my experience, this is often used as an argument to justify Israeli policies and US support for them, and worse, that the tens of thousands of Palestinians who have died since October 7th were “asking for it.” Not exactly nice stuff.

Somebody should occupy Palestine until their society stops believing these awful things. Obviously this doesn't justify killing or displacing anyone, but it certainly implies that there should not be self-government.

Should Russia also be occupied then, since their government believes that killing innocent people is fair game if it means becoming more powerful?

I wrote out a long reply to this, but the key points are:

i) if it were knowable that Russia could be occupied without NATO countries taking losses so large that the political elite would lose faith in the war effort, probably yes, but...
ii) ...unlike in Palestine, it seems much less clear in Russia that any government which emerges would be expansionist as a matter of course. (Unlike Palestine, where most polling shows that most people want the government to do horrible things, in Russia most people are startlingly apolitical, to an extent that would frighten Westerners. It is not that most Russians support the war in Ukraine, actually -- it is that most Russians do not care that Russia is fighting a war in Ukraine. Yes, really.) There is much more hope of a shift caused by the country's internal dynamics. In the post-WW2 world, countries (Argentina comes to mind) have had fascist governments come to power and lose power without foreign occupations; this feels possible to imagine in Russia but much more difficult in Palestine, especially while you have global humanitarian organizations committed to buttressing those attitudes.
iii) In conclusion, Amnesty International must be destroyed and its leaders incarcerated.

[PSOL]

Not even Palestinian liberals or former conciliatory parties like the DFLP trust Israel after years of stealing and harassment. Israel has broken every bridge in people who wanted a two-state solution.

[CumbrianLefty]

Not even Palestinian liberals or former conciliatory parties like the DFLP trust Israel after years of stealing and harassment. Israel has broken every bridge in people who wanted a two-state solution.

Regrettably, a lot of truth in this.

Likudism is bad, period.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not even Palestinian liberals or former conciliatory parties like the DFLP trust Israel after years of stealing and harassment. Israel has broken every bridge in people who wanted a two-state solution.

Regrettably, a lot of truth in this.

Likudism is bad, period.

It takes two to tango.

[MyLifeIsYours]

It’s quite honestly one poll and taken when most Palestinians probably can’t be reached well. That now Israel-hacks are latching onto it when they didn’t give a damn about public opinion beforehand is really telling.

Yes. Far too many Palestinians are concern about trying to survive while the IDF is massacring their loved ones and leaving them to starvation from a potential famine crisis.

[GeneralMacArthur]

It’s quite honestly one poll and taken when most Palestinians probably can’t be reached well. That now Israel-hacks are latching onto it when they didn’t give a damn about public opinion beforehand is really telling.

Yes. Far too many Palestinians are concern about trying to survive while the IDF is massacring their loved ones and leaving them to starvation from a potential famine crisis.

Why is it that people will always twist themselves in knots to give the Palestinians the benefit of the doubt, and then immediately jump to the worst possible conclusions about Israel and believe anything bad they read, even if it's from a source they know to have reported fake news with a clear anti-Jew bias in the past?

Is it any wonder that Jews around the world believe so strongly that they need their own country where they're not at the mercy of other people's goodwill?

Again and again and again we have seen evidence that the Palestinians like Hamas.  They support Hamas.  When Hamas butchers and rapes Jews, they like this.  When Hamas declares war on Israel, they support this.  Even when that war results in the Palestinians getting absolutely annihilated and their cities razed to the ground they still say "yeah it was worth it."  Even when Hamas puts Palestinians in harm's way and steals their food and medical supplies and confiscates their homes and hospitals for military purposes, they still give it the thumbs-up.  And this isn't just about Hamas.  This has been the attitude of Palestinians for 75 years.  And yet we still have a majority of liberals inventing any kind of excuse they can to justify and defend these attitudes, so that they can remain in this mindset where Israel is the roadblock to peace, it's Israel who is to blame for everything bad that happens, it's Israel who is in the wrong whenever violence occurs.