Oklahoma Exit poll

[© tweed]

I made this thread of the OK exit poll because I couldn't find the OK thread.

Exit Poll:

Edwards 31%
Kerry 29%
Clark 28%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is a wind up, right?

[© tweed]

This is a wind up, right?

A wind up?  What?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Edwards had been third in OK for ages...
I was a *bit* suprised that an exit poll shows him wi' a chance of winning.

It'd be one hell of an upset if he does somehow win in OK

[© tweed]

Yes, if Edwards wins two today...he may hang on in the southern primaries coming up and have an itty-bitty chance after.

[Gustaf]

The OK result is already getting clear? Great!

[© tweed]

The OK result is already getting clear? Great!

No, it's an exit poll.

[Gustaf]

The OK result is already getting clear? Great!

No, it's an exit poll.

I know, but that's pretty good even so. Not having exit polls coming at long after midnight, I mean. What's the time in OK now?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Yes, if Edwards wins two today...he may hang on in the southern primaries coming up and have an itty-bitty chance after.

Edwards is underestimated in the race for the nomination and overestimated nationally.  I don't see how a trial-lawyer with little national experience and trying to sell a "two Americas" story is going to get elected.  The ones voting for him have to admit that they have failed to succeed.

[Gustaf]

Yes, if Edwards wins two today...he may hang on in the southern primaries coming up and have an itty-bitty chance after.

Edwards is underestimated in the race for the nomination and overestimated nationally.  I don't see how a trial-lawyer with little national experience and trying to sell a "two Americas" story is going to get elected.  The ones voting for him have to admit that they have failed to succeed.

I think he sounds and looks good, but I'm not American. He could change things a lot, doing his poor, Southern background, how he isn't a politician, and so on.

[Beet]

If experience was important, Gore would have crushed Bush.

[NHPolitico]

If experience was important, Gore would have crushed Bush.

Style is huge.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

If experience was important, Gore would have crushed Bush.

Gore never had any real-life experience, he was a career pol and it hurt his chances.  Edwards does have real-life experience and was very successful, but his occupation is not very respected.

[Beet]

If experience was important, Gore would have crushed Bush.

Gore never had any real-life experience, he was a career pol and it hurt his chances.  Edwards does have real-life experience and was very successful, but his occupation is not very respected.

Thats fair, although I still don't see why people hate lawyers, especially trial lawyers, so much. Sure they make their career out of manipulating words, but without them people wouldn't be able to have an adequate defense against the law or representation. Medical penalties may be high, but doctors make a lot of money and a high penalty is a necessary deterrent to keep them careful and honest. There should be a cap on penalties but it should be around $700,000. Also, insurance companies get pinched every time interest rates are low because it lowers their return on their investments, so they charge more. But some of this blame gets passed onto lawyers, which isn't fair. The same thing happens with the insurance companies every interest rate cycle.

[Michael Z]

I made this thread of the OK exit poll because I couldn't find the OK thread.

Exit Poll:

Edwards 31%
Kerry 29%
Clark 28%

If this is going to be the final result then Clark's campaign is finished. OK is his last chance. Seems Iowa set a precedent and the nomination will be a two-horse race between Edwards and Kerry. But let's wait and see.

[zachman]

What hurt Edwards in NH is that Clark was running. They both did best among educated voters looking for electability. The split is what has given Kerry such success this week.

I'm sorry to admit it but Clark has fallen apart. When Clark is out of it, Edwards will have a gain  of momentum in Washington, Michigan, Wisconsin and others. I think Lieberman's supporters will go to Kerry, and the Deaniacs will start heading towards Edwards.

Edwards is a brilliant speaker, and had an amazing, yet brief stump speech.

[Michael Z]

I agree, Zachman. It's interesting how before the primaries started proper everyone was talking about a Dean vs Clark battle for the nomination, how each represented the North and South respectively, and how a Dean/Clark ticket would go on to challenge Bush.

Ever since Iowa, the tide has turned completely and Dean/Clark have been replaced with Kerry/Edwards. Amazing how quickly things change in politics, isn't it?

[Nym90]

Gore never had any real world experience? Please. The man was in the Army for 2 years and fought in Vietnam. He was a newspaper reporter for the Nashville Tennessean and in the homebuilding business. And besides, how is 24 years of political experience not considered "real-world" anyway? Government work isn't real? I suppose my own job in city government is a fake job, that I don't do any "real" work? Sure, he was far more successful than he otherwise would have been due to his family connections and last name, but Bush is much more guilty of that than was Gore.

What "real-world" experience do you consider Bush to have had? He ran his oil business into the ground and was none too successful in baseball as Managing General Partner of the Texas Rangers (of course, they have pretty much always been bad, so it wasn't really his fault).

[emergingDmajority1]

I'd be shocked if Edwards won OK, that state *should* come in late for Clark. We'll see...

[M]

Clark has always seemed like the weakest link to me, which was why these polls showing him leading in OK have always surprised me. I think Edwards logically has a good chance.

That said, exit polls give only very general results, much poorer predictions than even 14% of precincts counted, which generally give you a good idea of final results.

If Kerry or Clark wins OK, Clark is finished. If Kerry wins, he really is the frontrunner, and almost definite nominee, "see? I won everywhere but poor ol' Edwards' birth state of SC." If Edwards wins, he can very seriously contest the nomination (good for the dems, bad for us GOPers). It should give him enough Johnmentum to be the definite favorite in the two Outer South states on the 10th, at the very least.

It is possible that Oklahoma will be the night's most important primary in terms of the rest of the campaign.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Nym90

<<Gore never had any real world experience? Please. The man was in the Army for 2 years and fought in Vietnam.>>

What were his duties in Vietnam?

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<<He was a newspaper reporter for the Nashville Tennessean and in the homebuilding business.>>

And he was so busy smoking pot, he flunked out of a grad school and a law school.

---

<<And besides, how is 24 years of political experience not considered "real-world" anyway?>>

I don't consider elected office to represent the real world.  Too much hand shaking with special interests.

---

<<I suppose my own job in city government is a fake job, that I don't do any "real" work?>>

Well, any time I go to a government office (esp. an office of the City of Houston) the people I encounter certainly do NOT live the world I live in.  If they did, they wouldn't even be employed...that's not to say all city employees aren't productive.

---

<<What "real-world" experience do you consider Bush to have had? He ran his oil business into the ground and was none too successful in baseball as Managing General Partner of the Texas Rangers>>

Bush ran his own business, but thousands of independent oil companies went under during the oil bust of the 80's when oil crashed to $10.

And Bush did grab Nolan Ryan away from the Astros and convinced Dallas to pay for a new stadium.

Bush signed the front of checks, but Gore has only signed the back of checks.

[zachman]

You have to understand what coudn't deliver Gore was that he was a too smart clone of Dubya. They were both sons of successful politicians and aristocrats. Both were not soldiers on the ground in Vietnam. Both were playing southern moderates.

Gore couldn't relate to make anyone really interested in voting for him.

[zachman]

I  was watching Ron Reagan on MSNBC and he mentioned something interesting about Oklahoma. Of Oklahomans 53% are registered democrats and 37% are registered as republicans, yet the state always votes republican. Do other southern states have registration patterns like this?

[© tweed]

I  was watching Ron Reagan on MSNBC and he mentioned something interesting about Oklahoma. Of Oklahomans 53% are registered democrats and 37% are registered as republicans, yet the state always votes republican. Do other southern states have registration patterns like this?

Yes.  Alot of southerners are registered democrat, and vote Democratic in state and local election, but they vote GOP nationally.

[emergingDmajority1]

it's a horse race in Oklahoma, man is it fun watching the returns come in. Best of luck to Clark, Edwards, and Kerry!