Why I believe Hispanics will swing towards Trump

[ProgressiveModerate]

Most on here seem to believe this, but want to make this thread because I'm somebody who's generally pretty optimistic on Biden's chances but even I concede this

I still see a few people saying "but the 2022 election results", where Dems largely held up comparable to 2020 in Hispanic communities. I would point to 2018 as a response; outside RGV and Miami, Dems largely matched or outran Clinton's 2016 Hispanic performance; there weren't clear warning signs parts of urban Houston and Chicago would suddenly lurch 10% + points to the right.

I think what makes many of these Hispanic communities unique is that they are very low turnout; even in a record turnout year like 2020, we saw many precincts in heavily Hispanic communities struggle to reach 30% turnout even in swing states like Nevada. This means even a relatively small influx of new voters in these communities can have a disproportionate impact, and that's what largely seemed to happen in 2020 - Biden often matched or outran Hillary's vote total in many of these places, but it seems as if new voters broke for Trump. These voters then largely stayed home in 2022. We can also see the extreme of this in super low turnout elections like NJ-Gov 2021 where Murphy actually outran Biden by like 5-10% in many heavily Hispanic areas despite obviously suffering statewide. The less reliable a Hispanic voter, the more likely they are to be R favorable.

This low turnout can also explain why Hispanic voters can shift 10-20 points right in Harris County TX (~40% Hispanic) or Bexar County (~60% Hispanic) even as both counties swung left 2016-->2020.

Another sign is the primary results. In generally, heavily Hispanic areas both urban and rural seem to be some of Biden's weakest performances while they are often some of Trump's best with Trump cracking 90%. Again, a precinct map of Harris County is probably the best example of this. The map below shows Biden+Haley v Trump in Harris County; overall the County is Biden/Haley + 18 (5 point left shift from 2020 Pres), but Trump is winning the urban Hispanic neighborhoods in north and west county - places which he lost in 2020. Credit to @_fat_ugly_rat on X.



Swing from 2020 Pres:



Also if we just think about who Hispanic voters are demographically outside race, they are a group that should be pretty favorable to the modern-day GOP - often highly religious, socially moderate or conservative, low educational attainment, and so on. I think increasing integration of social groups will automatically push Hispanics further right as their vote becomes less tied to just their racial identity, and they start voting more similar to whites of the same demographic profile.

Overall, Hispanics could definitely shift right again, possibility in magnitudes similar to the 2016-->2020 swing, but the swing is largely an artifact of Hispanics tending to be low turnout and won't on it's own doom Biden. However, because the swings are caused by low turnout and just natural social changes in society, there's likely not much Biden can do to avoid these swings.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

I would be very surprised if Blacks, Latinos, or Asians do NOT trend R this cycle. (Given the state of the race based on polling and approvals, this means all 3 groups should also swing R.) Long-term educational and ideological polarization means that we should expect across-the-board R trends even if Biden somehow ends up winning more decisively than in 2020.

[DrScholl]

The Texas primary had very poor turnout amongst Democrats because there was nothing on the ballot. It's not inconceivable that turnout was overwhelmingly White in some of those Hispanic precincts.

And wouldn't say Hispanics voting Democratic is tied to racial identity as much as it is tied to economics. Lots of urban Hispanics work unionized jobs that are not declining (electricians, carpenters, food service, etc.) and are heavily supported by the Democratic establishment. Unlike working class White voters, working class Hispanics vote with their wallet even if they have socially conservative views. Labor has been a big influence on Hispanic voters.

[Samof94]

2024, unlike 2020 or 2022 to a lesser extent, will not be in a Covid context. That indirectly caused some people (regardless of race) to shift right at least temporarily.

[seskoog]

I think the fact that Trump got a higher percentage of the vote in the R primary than Biden did in the D primary in many Latino areas is a sign that there will be another shift right this year. I think most areas where Trump did better in the R primary than Biden in the D primary will swing right, and most areas after super Tuesday where Biden does better in the D primary than Trump in the R primary will swing left.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

2024, unlike 2020 or 2022 to a lesser extent, will not be in a Covid context. That indirectly caused some people (regardless of race) to shift right at least temporarily.

Yeah, Nevada should be a good testing ground for both of these hypotheses (Hispanic shift and a reversion to non-Covid times).

[Progressive Pessimist]

That's probably the conventional wisdom.

Although I don't think the swing will be as huge as some expect.