MD (WaPo/UMD): Hogan leads both by double digits

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Btw, I actually ran into Hogan's pollster at a bar earlier this week. Obviously he's biased, but he thinks Hogan's lead is real, although he certainly won't win by 16.

Thinking about it, there actually is no recent 1-1 precedent for a situation like this. It's still much more likely than not that Hogan loses, but there is an opening.

This is the exact same mindset the people here adopted for MT 2020 and TN 2018, and I was one of them.

I don’t understand why we keep making this same mistake.

[Roll Roons]

Btw, I actually ran into Hogan's pollster at a bar earlier this week. Obviously he's biased, but he thinks Hogan's lead is real, although he certainly won't win by 16.

Thinking about it, there actually is no recent 1-1 precedent for a situation like this. It's still much more likely than not that Hogan loses, but there is an opening.

This is the exact same mindset the people here adopted for MT 2020 and TN 2018 lol.

I don’t understand why we keep making this mistake.

Again, I don't think Hogan is favored at all.

But unlike Bullock, he isn't running against an incumbent. Bullock's presidential run also hurt him by making it easier to portray him as a national Democrat, while Hogan is vocally anti-Trump.

Bredesen had been out of office for nearly a decade when he ran for Senate, and Hogan will have only been out of office for two years.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Btw, I actually ran into Hogan's pollster at a bar earlier this week. Obviously he's biased, but he thinks Hogan's lead is real, although he certainly won't win by 16.

Thinking about it, there actually is no recent 1-1 precedent for a situation like this. It's still much more likely than not that Hogan loses, but there is an opening.

This is the exact same mindset the people here adopted for MT 2020 and TN 2018 lol.

I don’t understand why we keep making this mistake.

Again, I don't think Hogan is favored at all.

But unlike Bullock, he isn't running against an incumbent. Bullock's presidential run also hurt him by making it easier to portray him as a national Democrat, while Hogan is known to vocally anti-Trump.

Bredesen had been out of office for nearly a decade when he ran for Senate, and Hogan will have only been out of office for two years.

I really don't think the recency bias or the fact that it's an open seat are going to matter that much. At the end of the day, he's running in a state Biden is going to win by at least 30 points. That's a much bigger hill for him to climb than both Bullock and Bred in terms of state partisanship, and you can bet the Democrats are going to spend a lot of time tying him to Trump and national Republicans.

He'd be very lucky to get this race within single digits in the end.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Btw, I actually ran into Hogan's pollster at a bar earlier this week. Obviously he's biased, but he thinks Hogan's lead is real, although he certainly won't win by 16.

Thinking about it, there actually is no recent 1-1 precedent for a situation like this. It's still much more likely than not that Hogan loses, but there is an opening.

This is the exact same mindset the people here adopted for MT 2020 and TN 2018, and I was one of them.

I don’t understand why we keep making this same mistake.

It was also the same mindset adopted in WV-2010 Manchin.

People wan the moderate gov candidate to win in a safe state for the ther party. It rarely happens but  not never.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Do I believe Hogan is up 12 no but 5 or so, that's why it's a winnable race

[TML]

Btw, I actually ran into Hogan's pollster at a bar earlier this week. Obviously he's biased, but he thinks Hogan's lead is real, although he certainly won't win by 16.

Thinking about it, there actually is no recent 1-1 precedent for a situation like this. It's still much more likely than not that Hogan loses, but there is an opening.

This is the exact same mindset the people here adopted for MT 2020 and TN 2018, and I was one of them.

I don’t understand why we keep making this same mistake.

It was also the same mindset adopted in WV-2010 Manchin.

People wan the moderate gov candidate to win in a safe state for the ther party. It rarely happens but  not never.

To be fair, during the 2000s and early 2010s WV had many voters who voted R for president but D for nearly all other offices, so it was certainly fair to expect Manchin to be favored when he ran in the early 2010s.

[jamestroll]

Hogan will be a good senator if elected. We need more sane Republicans. He likely is a little ahead now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trone is gonna win noway Hogan up by 12 but 6

[DrScholl]

There aren't many voters in Maryland who think they need a "check" on Biden. Certainly not enough to overcome Biden winning the state by 30%. Hogan is already waffling on abortion saying "I won't answer that" and being very evasive. The closer to the election it gets that attitude isn't going to fly with Democratic voters.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Lingle was unpopular by 2012

Source?

[UWS]

Alsobrooks still has plenty of time to catch up to Trone in the polls. And recently, Trone launched racial slur during House Budget Committee hearing. Alsobrooks now has more campaign funds than Trone (between $3 and $4 million for Alsobrooks and less than $500,000 for Trone).

Congressman Trone has dismissed the job of State’s Attorney in an interview on WYPR, saying that "a prosecutor is just one small job".

https://assets-global.website-files.com/6454025c1eda110775527d50/65e9e149e713ba8333216f79_STATE%E2%80%99S%20ATTORNEYS%20RESPOND%20TO%20TRONE%20COMMENT%20THAT%20%E2%80%9CA%20PROSECUTOR%20IS%20JUST%20ONE%20SMALL%20JOB%E2%80%9D.pdf

That is just another evidence of David Trone's bad knowledge of law and national security as he recently said that illegal immigrants should 'have all the rights' US citizens have. It's not surprising that he voted against the Laken Riley Act, a bill named after a nursing student who was tragically murdered on the campus of the University of Georgia while jogging even though that bill would require ICE to arrest illegal immigrants who commit theft, burglary, larceny or shoplifting offenses and mandate that those who commit such crimes are detained until they are removed from the U.S., so they cannot break the same law or commit further crimes. It would also ensure that states have standing to bring civil actions against federal officials who refuse to enforce immigration law or who violate the law;

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/top-democrat-tight-senate-race-citizenship-voting-rights-millions-illegal-immigrants

Alsobrooks spent the most recent debate attacking Trone on his donations to pro-life/anti-abortion Republicans in a time abortion became an important issue due to repealing of Roe. So even if Trone is the nominee and tries to use the abortion issue against Hogan, that will backfire.

https://www.thebaltimorebanner.com/politics-power/national-politics/alsobrooks-trone-forum-senate-I6EPVZCFFRFUTMAH4UFALPAY3A/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trone is gonna win it's gonna be gradual but he will defeat Hogan