MD (WaPo/UMD): Hogan leads both by double digits

[Roll Roons]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2024/03/20/senate-poll-hogan-trone-alsobrooks/

I want to believe…

[2016]

Hogan (R) 49
Trone (D) 37
Undecided 14

Hogan (R) 50
Alsobrooks (D) 36
Undecided 15

Dem Primary
Trone 34
Alsobrooks 27
Undecided 39

[S019]

Maybe this is a sign we shouldn’t be taking polling in red states like MT or OH seriously this early either. Hogan obviously isn’t going to win, and Senate polling is generally useless until around Labor Day.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Even if Hogan is unlikely to win, Schumer with polling like this will be forced to invest.

[Beet]

If the polls say Hogan can win, then Hogan can win. I think people forget that Maryland is a state full of moderates and only votes as one of the most D states in the nation because the moderates here think the Ds are the moderate party and the Rs are a very extreme party. I can see a ton of white suburban moderates in places like Baltimore County, Howard County and Montgomery County defecting to Hogan, feeling secure in knowing that Biden is president (even though the same election by which they elect Hogan might also see Biden defeated, but people tend not to think that far).

Either way, this will force the Dems to spend money here and be yet another headache for the DSCC.

[2016]

Maybe this is a sign we shouldn’t be taking polling in red states like MT or OH seriously this early either. Hogan obviously isn’t going to win, and Senate polling is generally useless until around Labor Day.

Hogan has an astonishing 63 % favorable Rating.

I remember a certain guy named Mark Warner who left the Governors Office in Richmond in 2005 with a 74 % JA Rating and then carried that over to win the Senate Race in 2008.

This is not too dissimilar. Would be nice to have some "Sanity" back in the Senate.

[DrScholl]

Once he's tied to Trump and then has to condemn Trump which in turn hurts him with base GOP voters then he doesn't have a chance. But even without that he doesn't have a chance because the state is far too blue. I think he's counting on Alsobrooks winning the primary so he can pull the "I'm sane White man running against an angry Black woman" card.

[S019]

Maybe this is a sign we shouldn’t be taking polling in red states like MT or OH seriously this early either. Hogan obviously isn’t going to win, and Senate polling is generally useless until around Labor Day.

Hogan has an astonishing 63 % favorable Rating.

I remember a certain guy named Mark Warner who left the Governors Office in Richmond in 2005 with a 74 % JA Rating and then carried that over to win the Senate Race in 2008.

This is not too dissimilar. Would be nice to have some "Sanity" back in the Senate.

Well I mean to overcome such a hefty margin in a federal race is still a steep climb especially since all these races will be framed as Schumer vs Thune.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

When voters were asked what party they prefer to control the Senate, they chose Dems 55-35% over Reps. Yeah.

[Redban]

Excellent

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You know we are targeting TX, FL and ND

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Excellent

Awe guys, Redban thinks he can actually win.

[UncleSam]

Once he's tied to Trump and then has to condemn Trump which in turn hurts him with base GOP voters then he doesn't have a chance. But even without that he doesn't have a chance because the state is far too blue. I think he's counting on Alsobrooks winning the primary so he can pull the "I'm sane White man running against an angry Black woman" card.

How do you tie him to Trump though? He has pretty continuously condemned Trump, I don’t really see that line of attack working.

I do think it is surprising that the far right has rallied behind Hogan though. I would expect his right flank is soft and may not turn out for him.

Obviously no one ever went broke betting on partisanship to carry the day. I do think this is Likely D, but the DSCC will need to spend serious money here to hold what should be a safe seat.

[jaichind]

Once he's tied to Trump and then has to condemn Trump which in turn hurts him with base GOP voters then he doesn't have a chance. But even without that he doesn't have a chance because the state is far too blue. I think he's counting on Alsobrooks winning the primary so he can pull the "I'm sane White man running against an angry Black woman" card.

But did not Collins pull this off in ME back in 2020? Granted she was an incumbent but one can argue that Hogan so well known in MD you can argue he is a pseudo-incumbent

[Holmes]

It's giving TN-Sen 2018.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

I want to believe

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It's giving TN-Sen 2018.

Senators Lingle, Weld, Bayh, Bullock, and Bredesen look forward to welcoming him into their caucus!

[DrScholl]

Once he's tied to Trump and then has to condemn Trump which in turn hurts him with base GOP voters then he doesn't have a chance. But even without that he doesn't have a chance because the state is far too blue. I think he's counting on Alsobrooks winning the primary so he can pull the "I'm sane White man running against an angry Black woman" card.

How do you tie him to Trump though? He has pretty continuously condemned Trump, I don’t really see that line of attack working.

I do think it is surprising that the far right has rallied behind Hogan though. I would expect his right flank is soft and may not turn out for him.

Obviously no one ever went broke betting on partisanship to carry the day. I do think this is Likely D, but the DSCC will need to spend serious money here to hold what should be a safe seat.

It would be to make him have to focus a lot on being anti-Trump and therefore put off Trump voters enough so they skip the race. Furthermore it can be argued that he would support most of Trump's agenda, supreme court nominees included based on Republicans rallying around Trump once they are elected.

[2016]

It's giving TN-Sen 2018.

I am making a bold bet that Hogan will do better than Bredesen. The Difference between Hogan and Bredesen is that the former TN Governor was out of Office for a very long time while Hogan just left basically a year ago. And they just like the guy there.

[kwabbit]

It's giving TN-Sen 2018.

Senators Lingle, Weld, Bayh, Bullock, and Bredesen look forward to welcoming him into their caucus!

Unpopular, fair point but against strong incumbent Kerry, Old News, fair point, Old News.

I think Weld 96 is probably the closest race to this one. Bullock wasn't as popular as Weld or Hogan.

The one key difference is that this is an open seat, which helps Hogan, but MD is also more inelastic than MA and partisanship has drastically increased since 1996.

[Tekken_Guy]

Once he's tied to Trump and then has to condemn Trump which in turn hurts him with base GOP voters then he doesn't have a chance. But even without that he doesn't have a chance because the state is far too blue. I think he's counting on Alsobrooks winning the primary so he can pull the "I'm sane White man running against an angry Black woman" card.

How do you tie him to Trump though? He has pretty continuously condemned Trump, I don’t really see that line of attack working.

I do think it is surprising that the far right has rallied behind Hogan though. I would expect his right flank is soft and may not turn out for him.

Obviously no one ever went broke betting on partisanship to carry the day. I do think this is Likely D, but the DSCC will need to spend serious money here to hold what should be a safe seat.

The DSCC doesn’t need to spend a dime there.

[kwabbit]

Once he's tied to Trump and then has to condemn Trump which in turn hurts him with base GOP voters then he doesn't have a chance. But even without that he doesn't have a chance because the state is far too blue. I think he's counting on Alsobrooks winning the primary so he can pull the "I'm sane White man running against an angry Black woman" card.

How do you tie him to Trump though? He has pretty continuously condemned Trump, I don’t really see that line of attack working.

I do think it is surprising that the far right has rallied behind Hogan though. I would expect his right flank is soft and may not turn out for him.

Obviously no one ever went broke betting on partisanship to carry the day. I do think this is Likely D, but the DSCC will need to spend serious money here to hold what should be a safe seat.

The DSCC doesn’t need to spend a dime there.

They have unlimited money so they should probably drop 25 million. It wouldn't even detract from Ohio or Montana. The only way Hogan can win is if you completely ignore the race and let him set the narrative.

[wbrocks67]

I would imagine most of those undecided voters would come home to Ds and again, 49/50 is a high water mark for Hogan at this point. Both Ds only polling at 36/37 seems more of a name rec thing at this point too.

[President Johnson]

I doubt it, and this could be more evidence polling is broken. However, I would advise the Democrats to play it safe and not take it for granted entirely.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It's giving TN-Sen 2018.

Senators Lingle, Weld, Bayh, Bullock, and Bredesen look forward to welcoming him into their caucus!

We have been at the same rodeo so many times over the years and yet some people never learn.