MD (WaPo/UMD): Hogan leads both by double digits

[UncleSam]

I would imagine most of those undecided voters would come home to Ds and again, 49/50 is a high water mark for Hogan at this point. Both Ds only polling at 36/37 seems more of a name rec thing at this point too.

100% agreed on the name rec part, but if Hogan is polling at 49/50 that means that the D not only needs the undecided voters to come home but needs to pull away a bit of Hogan’s support as well.

This should be eminently doable, thus why it is Likely D. But it’s not the home run-slam dunk that it would appear to be in a vacuum.

[President Johnson]

I would imagine most of those undecided voters would come home to Ds and again, 49/50 is a high water mark for Hogan at this point. Both Ds only polling at 36/37 seems more of a name rec thing at this point too.

100% agreed on the name rec part, but if Hogan is polling at 49/50 that means that the D not only needs the undecided voters to come home but needs to pull away a bit of Hogan’s support as well.

This should be eminently doable, thus why it is Likely D. But it’s not the home run-slam dunk that it would appear to be in a vacuum.

I guess polls will shift as the election nears. We've seen this pattern in other senate races with popular governors running for senate in safe states as well. By September and into October that effect will probably kick in. In the end, I think Hogan will end up with around 44-46% of the vote, while Throne or Alsobrolls land around 53-55%. Would be a respectable showing for a Republican in a senate race.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I would imagine most of those undecided voters would come home to Ds and again, 49/50 is a high water mark for Hogan at this point. Both Ds only polling at 36/37 seems more of a name rec thing at this point too.

100% agreed on the name rec part, but if Hogan is polling at 49/50 that means that the D not only needs the undecided voters to come home but needs to pull away a bit of Hogan’s support as well.

This should be eminently doable, thus why it is Likely D. But it’s not the home run-slam dunk that it would appear to be in a vacuum.

I guess polls will shift as the election nears. We've seen this pattern in other senate races with popular governors running for senate in safe states as well. By September and into October that effect will probably kick in. In the end, I think Hogan will end up with around 44-46% of the vote, while Throne or Alsobrolls land around 53-55%. Would be a respectable showing for a Republican in a senate race.

Bayh started his race 20 points ahead of Young in 2016. We all know how that turned out.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Everyone on here is pointing to previous races which is a valid argument but I don't think this race is Safe D anymore. However, I find it fascinating that all the red avatars conveniently learned their lesson after Bullock 2020 just in time for Hogan's entry. I remember there were posts saying that the Bredesen/Bayh comparisons were unwaranted and that Bullock was special and could pull it off. Sure, Hogan is the heavy underdog, but comparing to Bullock of all people doesn't make sense.

[Roll Roons]

Everyone on here is pointing to previous races which is a valid argument but I don't think this race is Safe D anymore. However, I find it fascinating that all the red avatars conveniently learned their lesson after Bullock 2020 just in time for Hogan's entry. I remember there were posts saying that the Bredesen/Bayh comparisons were unwaranted and that Bullock was special and could pull it off. Sure, Hogan is the heavy underdog, but comparing to Bullock of all people doesn't make sense.

Even with Bredesen, people said it was different from Bayh because Bayh became a DC lobbyist after leaving the Senate and spent virtually no time in Indiana.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Everyone on here is pointing to previous races which is a valid argument but I don't think this race is Safe D anymore. However, I find it fascinating that all the red avatars conveniently learned their lesson after Bullock 2020 just in time for Hogan's entry. I remember there were posts saying that the Bredesen/Bayh comparisons were unwaranted and that Bullock was special and could pull it off. Sure, Hogan is the heavy underdog, but comparing to Bullock of all people doesn't make sense.

Even with Bredesen, people said it was different from Bayh because Bayh became a DC lobbyist after leaving the Senate and spent virtually no time in Indiana.

Tbf, Bredesen did better than Bayh did. Phil's performance was honestly impressive. Yeah, he lost by about the same amount, but TN is redder than Indiana

I'm expecting Hogan to do similar to Bredesen. Lose by 10-15

[Smash255]

Once he's tied to Trump and then has to condemn Trump which in turn hurts him with base GOP voters then he doesn't have a chance. But even without that he doesn't have a chance because the state is far too blue. I think he's counting on Alsobrooks winning the primary so he can pull the "I'm sane White man running against an angry Black woman" card.

But did not Collins pull this off in ME back in 2020? Granted she was an incumbent but one can argue that Hogan so well known in MD you can argue he is a pseudo-incumbent

While running for the same office, Hogan was not in the Senate, Collins is, so its a bit of a different dynamic.   Not to mention Maryland is FAR more Democratic than Maine.   A +9 state is one thing, a +33 is quite & that much more difficult.  Not saying he has zero chance, but the dynamics between Maryland and Maine are too different to put both Collins & Hogan in the same category.

[President Johnson]

Everyone on here is pointing to previous races which is a valid argument but I don't think this race is Safe D anymore. However, I find it fascinating that all the red avatars conveniently learned their lesson after Bullock 2020 just in time for Hogan's entry. I remember there were posts saying that the Bredesen/Bayh comparisons were unwaranted and that Bullock was special and could pull it off. Sure, Hogan is the heavy underdog, but comparing to Bullock of all people doesn't make sense.

If Jay Nixon would enter the senate race in Missouri and early poll showed him up, I doubt most red avatars here would argue the race is competitive or even tilting in Nixon's favor.

[xavier110]

I could see this being a single-digit race, a la 2012 Mass Senate race. But I don’t know how Hogan cobbles together a majority.

I find Trone leading the D primary more interesting.

[The Mikado]

Once he's tied to Trump and then has to condemn Trump which in turn hurts him with base GOP voters then he doesn't have a chance. But even without that he doesn't have a chance because the state is far too blue. I think he's counting on Alsobrooks winning the primary so he can pull the "I'm sane White man running against an angry Black woman" card.

How do you tie him to Trump though? He has pretty continuously condemned Trump, I don’t really see that line of attack working.

I do think it is surprising that the far right has rallied behind Hogan though. I would expect his right flank is soft and may not turn out for him.

Obviously no one ever went broke betting on partisanship to carry the day. I do think this is Likely D, but the DSCC will need to spend serious money here to hold what should be a safe seat.

The DSCC doesn’t need to spend a dime there.

MD isn't the most expensive state in the world even if they decide to spend there.

That said, I'll remind people that in the last 40(!) years, the closest any MD R came in a Senate race was Michael Steele only losing by 10(!) in 2006.

A lot of states have a pretty strong difference in who they think are OK to be state politicians and who they think are OK to be federal politicians. I'm sure my Republican friends here will remind me of this if Laura Kelly runs for KS-SEN in 2026.

[Tekken_Guy]

Once he's tied to Trump and then has to condemn Trump which in turn hurts him with base GOP voters then he doesn't have a chance. But even without that he doesn't have a chance because the state is far too blue. I think he's counting on Alsobrooks winning the primary so he can pull the "I'm sane White man running against an angry Black woman" card.

How do you tie him to Trump though? He has pretty continuously condemned Trump, I don’t really see that line of attack working.

I do think it is surprising that the far right has rallied behind Hogan though. I would expect his right flank is soft and may not turn out for him.

Obviously no one ever went broke betting on partisanship to carry the day. I do think this is Likely D, but the DSCC will need to spend serious money here to hold what should be a safe seat.

The DSCC doesn’t need to spend a dime there.

MD isn't the most expensive state in the world even if they decide to spend there.

That said, I'll remind people that in the last 40(!) years, the closest any MD R came in a Senate race was Michael Steele only losing by 10(!) in 2006.

A lot of states have a pretty strong difference in who they think are OK to be state politicians and who they think are OK to be federal politicians. I'm sure my Republican friends here will remind me of this if Laura Kelly runs for KS-SEN in 2026.

Imagine the DSCC recruits Kelly, Beshear and Bel Edwards for 2026.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Once he's tied to Trump and then has to condemn Trump which in turn hurts him with base GOP voters then he doesn't have a chance. But even without that he doesn't have a chance because the state is far too blue. I think he's counting on Alsobrooks winning the primary so he can pull the "I'm sane White man running against an angry Black woman" card.

How do you tie him to Trump though? He has pretty continuously condemned Trump, I don’t really see that line of attack working.

I do think it is surprising that the far right has rallied behind Hogan though. I would expect his right flank is soft and may not turn out for him.

Obviously no one ever went broke betting on partisanship to carry the day. I do think this is Likely D, but the DSCC will need to spend serious money here to hold what should be a safe seat.

The DSCC doesn’t need to spend a dime there.

MD isn't the most expensive state in the world even if they decide to spend there.

That said, I'll remind people that in the last 40(!) years, the closest any MD R came in a Senate race was Michael Steele only losing by 10(!) in 2006.

A lot of states have a pretty strong difference in who they think are OK to be state politicians and who they think are OK to be federal politicians. I'm sure my Republican friends here will remind me of this if Laura Kelly runs for KS-SEN in 2026.

Imagine the DSCC recruits Kelly, Beshear and Bel Edwards for 2026.

Kelly won re-election by 2.
Beshear by 5.
Bel Edwards by 2.5%.
Hogan won his by 12%... AND is running for an open seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

Once he's tied to Trump and then has to condemn Trump which in turn hurts him with base GOP voters then he doesn't have a chance. But even without that he doesn't have a chance because the state is far too blue. I think he's counting on Alsobrooks winning the primary so he can pull the "I'm sane White man running against an angry Black woman" card.

How do you tie him to Trump though? He has pretty continuously condemned Trump, I don’t really see that line of attack working.

I do think it is surprising that the far right has rallied behind Hogan though. I would expect his right flank is soft and may not turn out for him.

Obviously no one ever went broke betting on partisanship to carry the day. I do think this is Likely D, but the DSCC will need to spend serious money here to hold what should be a safe seat.

The DSCC doesn’t need to spend a dime there.

MD isn't the most expensive state in the world even if they decide to spend there.

That said, I'll remind people that in the last 40(!) years, the closest any MD R came in a Senate race was Michael Steele only losing by 10(!) in 2006.

A lot of states have a pretty strong difference in who they think are OK to be state politicians and who they think are OK to be federal politicians. I'm sure my Republican friends here will remind me of this if Laura Kelly runs for KS-SEN in 2026.

Imagine the DSCC recruits Kelly, Beshear and Bel Edwards for 2026.

Kelly won re-election by 2.
Beshear by 5.
Bel Edwards by 2.5%.
Hogan won his by 12%... AND is running for an open seat.

McConnell is retiring and Cassidy probably is as well or else he loses a primary.

[DaleCooper]

They don't have to tie him to Trump at all. Hogan is a vote for Republican control of the Senate.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

They don't have to tie him to Trump at all. Hogan is a vote for Republican control of the Senate.

The problem is, Biden is so unpopular, it becomes very easy to rationalize "I have to vote for Biden to stop Trump, but downballot I'll vote GOP to check him". And this even assumes that voters connect Hogan to [unnamed GOP Majority Leader (can't say he's a vote for McConnell at this point...) ] when Hogan basically governed as a Centrist Democrat.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think Hogan can absolutely get it within 15 points, and he could totally manage to get it to single digits. From that point though, the math to an outright victory is there but very tricky to put together.

[DaleCooper]

They don't have to tie him to Trump at all. Hogan is a vote for Republican control of the Senate.

The problem is, Biden is so unpopular, it becomes very easy to rationalize "I have to vote for Biden to stop Trump, but downballot I'll vote GOP to check him". And this even assumes that voters connect Hogan to [unnamed GOP Majority Leader (can't say he's a vote for McConnell at this point...) ] when Hogan basically governed as a Centrist Democrat.

Biden is going to win Maryland by 30 points. Maryland voters want Biden to be president and they presumably want him to be able to replace dead SCOTUS judges at the very least. Plus there's no guarantee or even expectation that Biden will win anyway, so they certainly don't want another Republican Senator for Trump in there. You don't use this strategy in one of the safest states in the whole nation, you use against someone like Tammy Baldwin.

[Sir Mohamed]

Yawn, we went though this before.

I could imagine Hogan coming within single digits, I just fail to see where on the map he would get the remaining votes. Especially when partisanship kicks in and we're de facto talking about Hogan providing the decisive vote for a GOP majority.

[Del Tachi]

(1) The comparison to TN-SEN is good, althought not completely apt.  There was a poll from March 2018 that had Bredesen leading Blackburn 45-35 but it was an outlier from a bad pollster.  Most spring 2018 polls had Bredesen up no more than 5 points, not 15.  Bredesen also hadn't been governor in 8 years, Hogan only 2.

(2) The Bayh-Bullock-Bredesen senate caucaus is alike in that...they're all Democrats.  It may simply be the case that moderate Republicans have more crossover appeal in blue states than moderate Democrats have in red states, which seems believable.

But, no, I don't expect Hogan will ultimately win and these polls are most likely a mirage.  I wouldn't be surprised if he brought it within 10 points, but presidential year turnout will kill any chance he has of flipping the seat.

[KaiserDave]

I agree with the above analysis. Vermont is a much different state than Maryland, and arguably easier for a Republican to win, but if Phil Scott ran for an open U.S. Senate seat as a Republican, there's no doubt in my mind he'd close it to within single-digits. 

[Landslide Lyndon]

(2) The Bayh-Bullock-Bredesen senate caucaus is alike in that...they're all Democrats.  It may simply be the case that moderate Republicans have more crossover appeal in blue states than moderate Democrats have in red states, which seems believable.

Senators Linda Lingle, Lincoln Chaffee, and Bill Weld agree.

[Spectator]

Once he's tied to Trump and then has to condemn Trump which in turn hurts him with base GOP voters then he doesn't have a chance. But even without that he doesn't have a chance because the state is far too blue. I think he's counting on Alsobrooks winning the primary so he can pull the "I'm sane White man running against an angry Black woman" card.

But did not Collins pull this off in ME back in 2020? Granted she was an incumbent but one can argue that Hogan so well known in MD you can argue he is a pseudo-incumbent

While running for the same office, Hogan was not in the Senate, Collins is, so its a bit of a different dynamic.   Not to mention Maryland is FAR more Democratic than Maine.   A +9 state is one thing, a +33 is quite & that much more difficult.  Not saying he has zero chance, but the dynamics between Maryland and Maine are too different to put both Collins & Hogan in the same category.

If Hogan did as well as Collins did, he’d still lose by 16%. She outperformed Trump by 17%.

[S019]

Very Likely D is fair I think. There is a universe where Hogan wins this but it would require a laughably bad Democratic campaign at a minimum, that did happen in 2014, but that year was also 2014. I think the problem for Hogan is he is going to face a Democratic ad blitz if this still is polling like this over the summer and it will be very hard, in fact near impossible, in my opinion, to win once this race becomes nationalized.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

(2) The Bayh-Bullock-Bredesen senate caucaus is alike in that...they're all Democrats.  It may simply be the case that moderate Republicans have more crossover appeal in blue states than moderate Democrats have in red states, which seems believable.

Senators Linda Lingle, Lincoln Chaffee, and Bill Weld agree.

Lingle was unpopular by 2012, Chaffee was up in a blue wave year, and Weld was running against an incumbent. None of those apply to Hogan.

[Roll Roons]

Btw, I actually ran into Hogan's pollster at a bar earlier this week. Obviously he's biased, but he thinks Hogan's lead is real, although he certainly won't win by 16.

Thinking about it, there actually is no recent 1-1 precedent for a situation like this. It's still much more likely than not that Hogan loses, but there is an opening.