Theories for age crosstabs in polling

[ProgressiveModerate]

Like in almost every poll, even credible pollsters, Trump is getting unrealistically good margins with young voters (often winning the youngest age bracket) as Biden is winning Seniors by 10%. There could definitely be some age depolarization but I think everyone here can agree Seniors are not voting like 15% to the left of Zoomers.

Anyways, here are some theories as to what could be going on:

With young voters:

-Young voters who grew up with technology are far less likely to answer or even look at random emails, missed calls, and such. This makes it very hard to actually get a good sample.

-Young people are more likely to do random polls/surveys for money. This demographic might already lean more R-friendly, and many of these people probably just check random answers to get the survey over as quickly as possible muddying results further.

-Young lefties who will ultimately vote for Biden are way less likely to admit it in polls, perhaps because they feel underwhelmed or dissatisfied.

-Social media has genuinely caused a large number of leftist to become disaffected over issues like Gaza, and generally believe Biden has been a failure who doesn't try to fix their problems.

-Right-wing social media in recent years has been very effective at presenting far-right positions in a way that's palatable to many young people, especially young men. I've gone on rants about this before but I see social media being quite effective at radicalizing a lot of lonely and lost young people around me (to both the far-left and far-right).

Old voters:

-Pretty sure there's been research on this but liberal seniors are far more likely to answer random phone calls and such; even once you try to account for demographics this can be a very hard find to adjust for.

-Biden genuinely has made gains with some Seniors due to issues like SS, Medicare, and generally being seen as more "normal" than Trump.

-Vaccine skepticism and such has actually caused a disproportionate share of Trump-supporting seniors to die since 2020 (enough to make a 2 or 3% swing with this group)

Some of these factors on their own may not be enough to explain what's going on, but when you add up these factors it could explain what's going on. Some are just guesses though and not things that are necessarily true; I think the biggest sign it's more a problem with polling and not less re-alignment is because age polarization hasn't shown up in any recent election results including 2022.

Curious if other folks have any other theories as to what could be going on here.

[xavier110]

I do think it comes down to an unwillingness to respond. I’m in my 30s and live in a swing state. I get texts for “polls” with links to surveys, and you can bet that I’m never going to click what could be a phishing attempt. After the fact, I’ve even verified that some have been legit… but why do they always look so sketchy? I can’t imagine any younger person bothering.

Who knows how many poll calls I’ve gotten since I don’t answer unknown numbers.

On the flip side, I imagine old/homebound Biden voters being especially willing, naive and chatty, and some old Trump voters being extra curmudgeonly and off the grid. But that could be playing into stereotypes.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I pretty much never do the texted polls; the only time that I did one was the Berkeley IGS poll a few weeks ago. I’ll occasionally do phone polls, but anymore I don’t really answer either phone unless I recognize the number.

This tweet really sums things up in terms of young voters:

https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1590223092315750403

“Before the next election, you might want to find a better way to poll anyone under the age of 30 since they would rather pick up a pinless grenade than a call from an unknown number.”

[Fusternino]

In terms of social media, the online Left is now in a perpetual state of grievance over the economy and identity issues. People under 30 legitimately think the economy sucks and buy into all the myths about purchasing power in the 1950s - 1970s, etc.

[ProgressiveModerate]

In terms of social media, the online Left is now in a perpetual state of grievance over the economy and identity issues. People under 30 legitimately think the economy sucks and buy into all the myths about purchasing power in the 1950s - 1970s, etc.

Big pet peeve of mine is young people who glorify the 60s like it was some golden area. By almost every metric, life quality has improved over the past 50-60 years, and we live in a relative time of peace and prosperity.

Sure, housing has gotten more expensive, but when you adjust for the fact the average size of a home has grown massively as household size has decreased, things honestly haven't changed that much. Most of these "nuclear families" from the 60s we idelaize lived in relatively modest 3ish bedroom 1400sqft homes on relatively small plots of land, that these young folks today would consider undesireable.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I pretty much never do the texted polls; the only time that I did one was the Berkeley IGS poll a few weeks ago. I’ll occasionally do phone polls, but anymore I don’t really answer either phone unless I recognize the number.

This tweet really sums things up in terms of young voters:

https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1590223092315750403

“Before the next election, you might want to find a better way to poll anyone under the age of 30 since they would rather pick up a pinless grenade than a call from an unknown number.”

Do you think that Conservative young folks are disproportionately more likely to answer random polls? Fewer young people responding to polls isn't inherently bad if young people across different demographics don't respond at simillar rates.

[DaleCooper]

I've said this before, but right now the act of answering a call or text from an unknown number so that you can tell them all about who you're going to vote for sounds like something only a Trump supporter would do. 4-8 years ago was a different story, but times have changed since then.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I pretty much never do the texted polls; the only time that I did one was the Berkeley IGS poll a few weeks ago. I’ll occasionally do phone polls, but anymore I don’t really answer either phone unless I recognize the number.

This tweet really sums things up in terms of young voters:

https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1590223092315750403

“Before the next election, you might want to find a better way to poll anyone under the age of 30 since they would rather pick up a pinless grenade than a call from an unknown number.”

Do you think that Conservative young folks are disproportionately more likely to answer random polls? Fewer young people responding to polls isn't inherently bad if young people across different demographics don't respond at simillar rates.

Honestly don’t really have a clue, but I don’t think that the polls are reaching a reflective subset regardless of voting intention.

I’ve basically stopped answering the landline because it’s 95% spam/scams.

[Vern]

Tbh, I wouldn't answer the phone for an unknown number as well.

[Skill and Chance]

I don't think it's crazy at all that young people are having a way more negative experience of the economy than old people.  Young people generally don't have homes or financial assets, so they are experiencing only the negative side of inflation.  Old people would be more likely see that their home and their 401K account are now 1.5X their 2020 value and take price increases in stride.

There could also be a bit of an identity politics by age angle, where old people react more viscerally to the accusations that Biden has dementia and rally around him to some degree.